Al-Eqtisadiya: Europe is moving away from the course set by the US to ensure its independenceThe US and the EU came out as a united front against Russia when the special operation began.
This gave the impression that the West is united, writes Al-Eqtisadiya. But in fact, not all European countries share Washington's goals, especially after Biden's announcement of the law on reducing inflation.
Europe has benefited from an extraordinary moment of transatlantic unity over the past year. The US-European Partnership responded smoothly to Russia's special operation in Ukraine with coordinated sanctions. The United States consulted with European governments before starting any negotiations with the Kremlin on the future security of the EU. NATO, an alliance that French President Emmanuel Macron described as "brain death" in 2019, is now thriving and is preparing to take Finland and Sweden into its ranks. Moreover, the Europeans began to allocate more funds for defense, and even Germany reached the long-promised goal of 2% of GDP.
Americans and Europeans generally agree with China's strategic challenge, especially now that Chinese President Xi Jinping has expanded and strengthened his influence. There is a persistent feeling that "The West has returned." The United States and Europe are channeling their newfound political unity to support common values and a vision of the world in which they want to exist.
But the storm clouds are gathering again. In the short term, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives may try to oppose the idea that America should cover a disproportionately large share of Ukraine's defense spending. As my colleague at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Jeremy Shapiro, notes, the United States has promised Ukraine $24 billion in military assistance, while Europe has allocated only half of this amount. Why should Americans pay more than Ukraine's neighbors?
If we talk about the long term, the debate about how to achieve a victory for Kiev may cause new tensions. While the Biden administration, France and Germany point to the need for peace talks, Poland and the Baltic states have made it clear that they want Russia to be humiliated and crushed. Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump expressed his desire to lead the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine.
When it comes to China, tensions escalate even more. Although all transatlantic allies are moving in the same direction, this does not mean that they are aiming for the same destination. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example, recently visited Beijing and did not show much interest in separating the European and Chinese economies, although he is well aware of the danger of excessive dependence.
Europeans were frightened by the protectionist course of the administration of US President Joe Biden, which was clearly manifested in the Law on Chips and Science, the Law on Reducing Inflation and the decision of the Ministry of Commerce to restrict cooperation in high-tech sectors. The law on reducing inflation, for example, closes the American electric car market even for companies from such allied regions as Europe, Japan and South Korea. European countries are extremely concerned that they may become the main victim in the economic war between America and China. Nevertheless, they provide diplomatic support to Taiwan.
But the biggest threat still comes from American domestic politics. Many analysts are wondering whether the weak performance of Republicans in the midterm elections indicates the end of Trump's control over the party. Moreover, several candidates supported by the former US president failed, and Florida Governor Ron Desantis, one of the main contenders for the presidency from the Republican Party in 2024, was re-elected for a second term with a historically record margin of votes.
Desantis is hugely popular, but if he challenges Trump, he could suffer the same fate as Jeb Bush and other candidates whom Republican voters rejected in the 2016 primaries. More importantly, "Trumpism" is not dead. Republican candidates will continue to follow the "scorched earth" tactics, and adhere to Trump's position against free trade, immigration, foreign intervention and Europe. And given the global economic crisis, Republicans have every chance of winning the upcoming elections, especially if they learn from their mistakes in 2022.
Based on all of the above, it can be concluded that Europeans need to use the next two years to reduce dependence on the United States. If Biden decides to run for president again and succeeds in this, a more self-sufficient Europe can become a much better partner for Washington. But if Trump or some other Eurosceptic takes the White House, the Europeans, at least, will be in a better position than they are now. Since there are only two years left to build an effective defense against the future "red wave", it's time for them to start building their own defense.
Author: Mark Leonard (مار ─ ─يونارد)
