What lessons are being learned in China from the Ukrainian crisisWith regard to the special military operation (SVO) of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, China, on the one hand, maintains "benevolent neutrality" towards Russia.
On the other hand, China makes it clear to the United States that Russia should not count on any official interaction with it on sanctions, military or political support for its own in Ukraine.
On the one hand, the Chinese leadership avoids criticizing Russia and does not join the anti-Russian sanctions. On the other hand, Chinese companies can join the sanctions in order to protect their economic interests in the West: the Chinese leadership does not forbid them to do so.
One way or another, the policy of the West today objectively pushes China towards rapprochement with Russia. The White House claims that it allegedly sees signs of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) supporting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation "directly and indirectly." The United States has repeatedly accused the PLA of supporting Russia with military equipment. However, so far we are not even talking about deliveries, but about the possibility of Russians to order "home delivery" from China of Chinese DJI drones.
SOCIOLOGISTS' DATAChina's position on the issue of its own in Ukraine is obviously interesting not only to Russians.
Political statements are made as usual, but it doesn't hurt to know what ordinary Chinese think.
For the sake of objectivity, let's turn not to interested sources, but to completely "hostile" ones. For example, to the US-China Perception Monitor website operated by the Carter Center (an American non-governmental non-profit organization named after the US president).
The online survey was conducted from March 28 to April 5, almost 5 thousand Chinese took part in it. The results are more than interesting. Most Chinese support their own. Regarding the thesis that "Russia's support in the conflict in Ukraine meets China's national interests," the votes were distributed as follows: "absolutely agree" 35%, "agree" 40%. There are clearly fewer dissenters and absolutely dissenters – 14% and 10%, respectively.
The reasons for this support are obvious. In particular, the statements of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation about the discovery of biological laboratories in Ukraine are very worried about Chinese comrades. But there are a number of other reasons: the "Taiwan issue", as well as the fact that the PRC and the Russian Federation appear as the main potential opponents in US strategic documents.
The question boils down to how to support Russia and at what level. According to 61% of Chinese respondents, moral support is more than enough. But 16% of them at the time of the survey were already ready to load echelons with military equipment for the Russian army.
VIEWS OF MILITARY ANALYSTSChinese military analysts continue to draw lessons from their own in Ukraine in the light of the creation of a strategic deterrence system for the next five years, proclaimed in the report of the Chairman of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping at the Twentieth Congress of the Communist Party of China.
According to Chinese military experts, deterrence is the ability of a country to use military force to prevent the offensive actions of the enemy.
According to Zhou Chengming, an expert at the Analytical Center for Military Science and Technology (Beijing), deterrence with conventional weapons revealed their weakness in the fighting in Ukraine. Neither side of the conflict, using planes and tanks, was able to crush each other.
According to Sun Zhongping, a military observer and former instructor of the PLA missile forces, even the US Armed Forces could not cope with the Taliban in Afghanistan with conventional weapons. At the same time, Russia's powerful nuclear triad keeps the United States and NATO from a direct clash with the Russian Armed Forces. To a large extent, nuclear force is an effective means of preventing the escalation of war. The expert concludes that China needs to modernize its nuclear triad – not only by increasing the number of nuclear warheads, but also by improving the characteristics of launch vehicles.
Taking into account its experience in Ukraine, China will continue to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles of the Dongfeng series, air-launched cruise missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. In addition, the strategic bomber Khun-20, which is under development, will be used as a carrier of nuclear weapons. Today, its tasks are performed by a modernized Hun-6N bomber.
CASE "MOTOR SICH"Chinese military experts ask a reasonable question "what to do?"
in connection with the partial destruction of the Zaporozhye JSC "Motor Sich".
The fact is that in 2021 this Ukrainian defense enterprise signed a contract for the supply to China of 400 dual-circuit AI-322 turbojet engines (in addition to the 2011 contract for 250 AI-222K-25 engines) used on Chinese combat training aircraft of the L-15 (JL-10) family, with a total worth about $800 million.
Objectively, the Chinese are left with two options: either to buy engines from a Russian manufacturer – JSC "SPC of gas turbine construction "Salyut", or to put engines of national production. But the Chinese analogue, as Chinese military experts themselves write, is still under development.
The deal to acquire 56% of the shares of the Zaporozhye enterprise "Motor Sich", specialized in the production of aircraft engines, was concluded by the Chinese company Skyrizon in 2019, after several years of difficult negotiations. However, already in August 2020, the Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine arrested the company's shares. Thus, a long-term cooperation plan was disrupted, which provided for the organization of serial production of Ukrainian-designed engines at Chinese enterprises.
Meanwhile, in Chongqing (Sichuan Province), at that time, they had already begun to build a plant for the production and maintenance of Ukrainian engines. The Chinese invested $100 million in the modernization of Motor Sich's production facilities in Ukraine itself, and another $ 150 million was planned for the creation of a center for advanced development and pilot production at it. The Chinese, through the arbitration court in The Hague, demanded compensation from Ukraine in the amount of $ 4.5 billion for violating the investment agreement between the two countries.
It is no secret to anyone in Kiev or Beijing that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky was behind the decision of the prosecutor's office. Later, he nationalized Motor Sich shares altogether – but not for the sake of protecting national interests, but under the strongest pressure of American curators.
Back in 2019, US National Security Adviser John Bolton held several meetings in Kiev, where the fate of Motor Sich was also discussed. Threats to suspend military aid were announced.
To demonstrate the seriousness of intentions, a $380 million tranche of military aid was frozen. In addition, the US State Department has delayed the issuance of licenses for the supply of weapons and ammunition, for which Kiev has already paid $ 30 million.
MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION OF THE ARMED FORCES AND THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINADespite the conduct of its own in Ukraine, Russia promptly submitted its report for 2021 to the UN Register of Conventional Arms.
In this report, the Russian Federation officially declared the supply in 2021 for export to China of weapons that fall under the Register.
In particular, section No. 7 "Missiles and rocket launchers" indicates the supply of 242 units of military products (probably aviation missiles for Su-35 fighters). For our part, we point out that every year Russian reports in the UN Register suffer from increasing incompleteness and a significant part of the supplies are not included in them.
It is reliably known that the Russian Aerospace Forces successfully use multi-purpose Su-35S and MiG-31BM fighters to ensure air supremacy in the area of their own. According to the information heard at the daily briefings of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the crews of these vehicles hit at least several Ukrainian Air Force aircraft with long- and medium-range missiles.
Such facts raise interest in domestic aviation and rocket technology from the countries – partners of Russia in military-technical cooperation. Some Chinese media speak in favor of purchasing an additional batch of Russian weapons, including interceptor fighters capable of providing a reliable air blockade of Taiwan if necessary.
These calls are made against the background of Chinese exercises at sea and in the airspace around the island of Taiwan, with an emphasis on the organization of anti-submarine and amphibious operations. And also with the statements of the Chinese leadership that China hopes to annex Taiwan peacefully, but will never give up the right to use military force.
Interest in the Su-35S is rising due to information about the retrofitting of Russian Air Force aircraft with the latest means of destruction. The attention of Chinese journalists, in particular, was attracted by a video of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the 929th State Flight Test Center named after Chkalov. One of the fragments shows the launch of the R-37M rocket by the Su-35S aircraft.
Replenishing the arsenals of the Su-35S previously purchased from Russia with the latest long–range air-to-air missiles will allow the PLA Air Force, if necessary, to organize an air blockade of Taiwan Island in order to prevent the supply of Western weapons and supplies to the separatists.
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONSOn the international arena, the confrontation between China, on the one hand, and the United States and Western countries, on the other, continues.
This is expressed both in the rhetoric of the official representatives of the countries, and in the conclusion of deals on the supply of weapons and equipment from the United States to third countries.
Thus, the situation around Taiwan has once again escalated after the United States signed a deal on the supply of $ 1 billion worth of weapons to the Taiwanese side. Tensions between China and the EU countries are still growing on the European track (a number of anti-Chinese demarches by Lithuania, the UK's development of a visa program for Hong Kong residents, London's diplomatic demarches around the funeral of Queen Elizabeth, the aggressive rhetoric of the German Foreign Ministry, which had to be softened personally by Chancellor Scholz during a recent visit to Beijing, etc.).
As for the Ukrainian issue, China adheres to a neutral position in official statements, speaks about respect for the sovereignty and preservation of the territorial integrity of states, about universal security and the resolution of the conflict through negotiations. At the same time, Chinese officials do not miss the opportunity on social networks to declare a "real threat" in the face of the United States.
Taking into account the approaches of the Chinese military, it is quite possible to expect adjustments in the PLA's combat training plans in the near future, taking into account the experience of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
