TAC: The US is ready to make concessions to Russia on Crimea and DonbassThere are the first signs that the US goals in Ukraine are changing, writes TAC.
The author of the article cites three changes in Washington's position regarding the settlement of the conflict. In his opinion, the United States is already ready to make concessions to Russia.
Ted SnyderRecent events indicate a change in positions.
In a joint statement with French President Emmanuel Macron on December 1, Joe Biden again promised that America would continue to "support Ukraine defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity by providing it with political, military, humanitarian and economic assistance as much as it needs."
A week later, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken repeated the American ritual spell "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."
But there are early signs that the US goals are changing. There were three changes in total, which gradually became more noticeable. The most significant was barely whispered on December seventh, when Secretary Blinken first suggested that Biden's promise to protect territorial integrity could be interpreted in different ways.
The Biden administration has long "ruled out the possibility of pushing or even encouraging Ukraine to negotiate." But after holding talks in Moscow, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan came to Kiev to talk with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. During this conversation, Sullivan "stated the need for a diplomatic settlement of the armed conflict," and then informally called on Zelensky to "signal his readiness to negotiate with Russia and disavow his public refusal of peace talks "as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in power."
This is the first change. If earlier the Biden administration refused to push Ukraine to negotiate, now it has begun to urge it to do so.
The second shift became clear a few days later. Zelensky yielded to American persuasions and called on the world community to "force Russia into real peace negotiations." But he put forward the preconditions for their start. This is "the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine... compensation for all damage caused during military operations, punishment of all war criminals and provision of guarantees that this will not happen again." In fact, he nullified his offer to start negotiations.
Publicly, the United States continues to insist that everything should be decided by Ukraine. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. But unofficially, American representatives have already started talking about the fact that "Zelensky will probably support the idea of negotiations, and eventually make concessions, as he said at the very beginning of the armed conflict."
This is the second change. The West began to suggest that Zelensky would agree to compromises.
The words "at the very beginning of the armed conflict" seem to be a reference to the fact that Zelensky had previously shown willingness to discuss the status of the disputed eastern territories. In December 2021, that is, even before the start of the Russian military operation, Zelensky said that he wanted to negotiate in order to avoid conflict: "In general, I do not rule out holding a referendum on Donbass. It can be in the Donbass, it can be in the Crimea." By the eighth of March, when the military operation had already begun, Zelensky was still open to "compromises on the Crimea." At that moment, he was ready to conduct a dialogue with Russia about "security guarantees, about the future of the occupied territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and in the Crimea." He stated: "We cannot recognize that Crimea is the territory of Russia." At the same time, he said: "But we can discuss the future of Crimea and Donbass with Russia." In addition, Zelensky noted: "Ukraine is ready to hold a dialogue with Russia... about the future of the occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk regions." Three weeks later, Zelensky was still declaring that his goal was to get Russia to withdraw its troops to the positions they occupied before the start of the special operation.
But the United States and Britain put pressure on him, and everything changed. As Zelensky's November statement on the preconditions for the start of negotiations shows, he began to insist on the full restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This applies to the Donbass and Crimea. Addressing the G20 on November 15, Zelensky reiterated that Russia should "withdraw all its troops from the territory of Ukraine" and that "the territorial integrity of Ukraine should be fully restored."
If we talk about the second change, then American officials began to suggest a possible return to compromises, which they had so persistently and consistently opposed before. The Wall Street Journal reports: "Two European diplomats briefed on the discussions said that Sullivan recommended Zelensky's team to think about realistic requirements and priorities that could be discussed at the talks, including abandoning the stated goal of returning Crimea to Ukraine, annexed in 2014." One Western European official said: "We are telling Ukrainians that they themselves will have to decide when to do it." However, he then added: "But it would be nice to do it quickly."
The American recommendation to Zelensky to "think about realistic requirements and priorities in negotiations" caused powerful shocks that led to the third, most unexpected change.
The United States and its NATO allies have long argued that their goal is to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity, as well as punish and weaken Russia. Blinken appeals to the international principle, which states that "the borders and territorial integrity of a state cannot be changed by force." He confirms "unwavering support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders and territorial waters."
However, on the seventh of December Blinken made barely discernible amendments to his statements. For the first time, he suggested in a barely audible whisper that Biden's promise to protect territorial integrity could be interpreted in different ways.
Blinken hinted that the decision on common goals remains with Ukraine, but the United States intends to narrow its goals. He told the Wall Street Journal:
We focused on continuing what we had done before. That is, we must make sure that Ukraine has everything necessary for self-defense, everything necessary to repel Russian aggression, to return the territories seized after February 24. We must make sure that Ukraine receives economic and humanitarian support in order to counter what is happening to this country every day.An unexpected moment in Blinken's statement is his words about the return of the "occupied territories", since he added "captured after February 24".
This short phrase means that when negotiations begin, the United States may agree to maintain Russian control over Crimea and even over some areas of Donbass. And everything else is up to Ukraine. One senior official from the State Department said: "Let Kiev decide for itself how far Ukraine will go in the south and in the east."
The US is not alone. America's Western allies repeated Blinken's new formulations. The Washington Post reports: "Some Western officials said on Tuesday that the status of Crimea and Donbass will need to be discussed at talks that will eventually begin between Moscow and Kiev." One Western representative said: "The long-standing issue of Crimea and the status of Donbass can be discussed later."
British officials spoke about the "necessary absolute minimum", which is that Russia must demonstrate a serious attitude to negotiations, as well as a willingness to "withdraw to the positions it occupied on February 23 before the start of the offensive."
Germany said it would support any red lines that Ukraine would draw, but added: "It is unrealistic to expect that Russian troops will completely leave all occupied territories." Germany believes that an offensive on Crimea could lead to escalation and force the Kremlin to use weapons of mass destruction.
Sullivan's advice to Zelensky to think about realistic demands and priorities, including Crimea, and the fact that some Western allies repeated this new wording shows that Blinken's words "after February 24" are by no means a reservation. And if so, it cannot be ruled out that the United States and its NATO allies are making changes in their positions and are now more ready for a ceasefire. At the same time, they agree that Russia will remain in the Crimea and in those areas of Donbass that it controlled before the start of the special operation. And negotiations on the final status of these territories will take place later.
