Danas: Russia has changed the paradigm of relations from the East—West model to the North—South model Russia has abandoned the idea of Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, writes Danas.
The concept of a common European home was replaced by the Great Eurasia project. Cooperation with the West, if it is still possible, will be based on new principles.
Dragan BisenićAt the eighth Primakov Readings Conference, which are held every year in honor of former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Yevgeny Primakov, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the first to take the floor, who noted that "past relations with the West will not be restored," and if cooperation is possible at all, it will be be based on "new principles".
According to him, if European diplomacy "pompously calls for protecting Ukraine", justifying it by "protecting European values", then "then we should have nothing to do with such diplomacy." Assistant to Russian President Vladimir Putin, former ambassador to Washington, Yuri Ushakov stated that the previously "popular project of creating a single space" from Lisbon to Vladivostok "clearly failed." "The United States of America," Yuri Ushakov said. — they did not want to take into account Russia's elementary security interests, and even the European Union"refused this project. All this means "the end of European security in the XXI century."
A multipolar world
If earlier in Russia the formula "from Lisbon to Vladivostok" was used as a kind of metaphor, today it would be correct to say "from Murmansk to Mumbai and Shanghai". With such a turn, the Caspian Sea becomes more important for Russia than the Mediterranean. This completely changes the whole paradigm of foreign policy. There is a revision of the entire foreign policy legacy, and everything unnecessary is discarded, and everything vital is strengthened.
Some of these thoughts were formulated by the first speaker — the chairman of the organizing committee, Academician Alexander Dynkin. He recalled that at the previous Primakov readings it was said many times and in different contexts that disregard for Russia's national interests threatens to aggravate international relations and threatens European security. Alexander Dynkin also concluded that "today it is already a sad reality."
According to Alexander Dynkin, given the social situation in different regions of the world, we can say that split societies in a split world are the main characteristic of the current order. However, "the end of European security in the 21st century" does not mean "the end of history." Alexander Dynkin stated that "the conceptual paradigm of international relations is changing in Russia: from the East—West model to the North—South model." "Great Eurasia" as a project has replaced the concept of a common European home, and "the main events of the future multipolar world will develop on this territory."
In accordance with these premises, the conference did not raise a single topic that would concern Europe, although before it dominated all seven conferences dedicated to Yevgeny Primakov. The new orientation reflects Russia's conviction about the direction in which international relations will develop.
Thus, much has been said about the impact on world relations of China, India, Turkey, Eurasia and Central Asian countries. Russian foreign policy is changing accordingly. For many years, Russia's perception of the world has been horizontal along the East—West line. Now, in many ways forced, Russia looks at the world vertically, focusing on the North—South meridian. She considers herself (self-proclaimed) The North, which builds close relations with the South.
Russia and China
As for Eastern Europe, Russia has no doubt that it has been turned into a buffer zone from Bucharest to Tallinn. The old idea of Jozef Pilsudski about the "Intermountain" — a confederate state "from sea to sea", which would include states from the Black and Adriatic Seas to the Baltic, has come back to life.
Zbigniew Brzezinski returned to this idea at one time, and now it has entered the arsenal of the North Atlantic Alliance opposing Russia. Such a reorientation of the Primakov Readings, on the one hand, is objective, and on the other, is a reaction to what is happening in the Euro-Atlantic space. Japan and Iran, as well as Afghanistan, are gaining great importance. Although Japan is closely connected with the United States, it is not a member of the North Atlantic Alliance and does not withdraw from the Sakhalin energy project, and in addition, it is negotiating the purchase of a large amount of gas in 2023. The conference participants are sure that the Japanese agreed this with the Americans, who gave the go-ahead.
Iran is a very important country because it is located on the North—South meridian, and to be more precise, Iran is part of the transport corridor that runs along this meridian. From this point of view, Iran, which has access to the Caspian Sea, is becoming part of an important transport artery, which is probably "even more important today than the Mediterranean Sea." "Afghanistan still does not belong to the priorities of Russian policy. Why should we waste time, resources and forces on non-priority areas for Russian foreign policy?
Yes, Afghanistan is important, problematic, but now, first of all, for Tajikistan and Pakistan, and not for Moscow, although, of course, we maintain certain relations with Kabul," explained Academician Alexander Dynkin. Turkey takes the place of France, which during the first Cold War tried to find a balance between the Soviet Union and the United States of America. Especially during the time of President de Gaulle. Since France is now completely immersed in Washington's politics, its place is taken by a country that is trying to find a balance, and that is Turkey.
There is no longer any doubt that Russia and China will become partners in this projection. Chinese professor Yang Xutong said that if we talk about Russia, China intends to strengthen mutual trust and seek common interests. They will continue to work together to resist "US pressure."
But if the United States entered into the confrontation with China alone, then they will put pressure on Russia together with other members of the North Atlantic Alliance. The Chinese professor noted that it is necessary to further develop such associations as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as BRICS, in which China and Russia are the main locomotives. The meeting of the SCO countries, which took place in September this year in Samarkand, was attended by 22 states that have different relations with this organization. Those who are interested in cooperating with it include such states as Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Maldives. Iran will soon become a permanent member of the SCO. Chinese professor Yang Xutong also noted that US policy no longer depends on who is in the White House. In his opinion, "no next president will change the policy of pressure on China and Russia."
A "chance" for the European Union
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at the Primakov Readings, paid special attention to the expansionist ambitions of the North Atlantic Alliance. He noted that the alliance "shamelessly refused" past promises about non-expansion of the bloc. According to Sergey Lavrov, these promises were "verbal, but sworn."
Moreover, by continuing to expand at the Russian borders, NATO has also violated written commitments — those that were approved at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in 1999. The Minister recalled that they are based on the principle of not ensuring their own security at the expense of the security of others ("indivisibility of security"). There was also a clause on the inadmissibility of the dominance of any military-political organization in the OSCE area. The North Atlantic Alliance has ignored all these commitments. According to Sergey Lavrov, NATO, led by the United States, is trying to set India up against China and bring discord into ASEAN.
Of course, he elaborated on the actions of the European Union, saying that Russia "sincerely wishes the independence of the EU," which still has the potential to become one of the poles of a multipolar world. The European Union can participate in these processes on equal terms if it realizes that it is not obliged to fully obey the United States.
Sergey Lavrov stressed that Europe has interests that do not coincide with the interests of the United States, and that Europe cannot defend. "This is a fact," the Russian foreign minister said. In his opinion, this is confirmed by the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Washington. Sergey Lavrov also drew a parallel between the actions of the Ukrainian authorities and the Kosovo Albanians. Both of them humiliated Brussels by openly declaring that they refuse to fulfill the agreements reached with the help of the EU. However, Lavrov still relativized the idea of the entire conference, shifting responsibility for the termination of cooperation to the West. "We are not turning away from the West, he himself does not want to cooperate with us," Sergey Lavrov said.
It seems that Russia still has some hopes for the OSCE, although Sergey Lavrov said that Poland is seeking the collapse of this organization, since it is one of the possible platforms for dialogue, albeit "poor".
Nevertheless, Russia believes that it is not necessary to overestimate the possible role of the OSCE in the future of Europe. Previously, there was still a chance that this organization would become the main one for the future system of European security and development, but this chance was irretrievably missed a quarter of a century ago. Neither the OSCE nor any other international organization will return us to the world that existed before February 24, 2022. And even less hope is given to the world by the illusion of the Paris Charter for a New Europe of 1990. This was said at the conference. Apparently, a "new world" is coming — a world that Professor Olga Alekseevna Karnevali of Lancaster University called the "world of walls".
