Ex-US intelligence officer Koffler: it's time for the US to stop fomenting the conflict in UkraineThe Biden administration is probably coming to the realization that taxpayers' money and the defensive arsenal are not infinite, and it's time to stop fomenting conflict in Ukraine, former US intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler said on Fox News.
In her opinion, the United States will not be able to achieve its goals in it.
Rebekah KofflerThe Kremlin claims that Russia will achieve all its stated goals in Ukraine, but what do Ukrainian leaders and the United States think about this?
Common sense suggests that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict should be stopped by making serious efforts to achieve a peaceful settlement.
Think about the cost of the conflict in terms of human lives and money spent. Despite the unimaginable number of human casualties, colossal costs and the US commitment to provide Ukraine with weapons, victory is not expected for either side in the near future, although 10 months have passed since the beginning of the conflict.
According to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, during this time Ukraine has lost one hundred thousand soldiers killed and wounded.
In November, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, admitted to reporters that the probability of a military victory for Ukraine in the near future could not be called high. The US weapons arsenal is severely depleted. According to The Wall Street Journal, because of this, Taiwan will not receive $19 billion worth of weapons in time, which jeopardizes its ability to defend itself from China's invasion.
According to the CEO of Raytheon, during the 10 months of the conflict, the Pentagon spent 13 years of production of Stinger complexes and five years of Javelin. The production capacity of the US defense industry for resupply is very limited. In November, the country spent $68 billion to help others, and then the administration requested another $37.7 billion from Congress.
Nevertheless, the probability of a peaceful settlement remains extremely low. Moscow, Kiev and Washington — the key figures of the current conflict — occupy contradictory positions and pursue unattainable goals.
Russia's position
President Vladimir Putin, despite tactical failures, insists on the recognition by the West of Crimea and four territories in eastern Ukraine as Russian. This is unprofitable neither for the United States nor for Europe, since such a concession is tantamount to surrender.
On Tuesday, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov ruled out the possibility of peace talks, continuing to insist that Russia "will achieve its stated goals." Putin is almost certainly preparing for a protracted conflict of attrition, since on Wednesday he noted that the results of the special operation will not begin to manifest soon.
In November, Russia completed a partial mobilization, the first since World War II, replenishing the personnel of the Armed Forces by 318,000 people and increasing the military budget for 2023 by $ 13.6 billion (up to $ 84 billion).
Putin is betting that strikes on Ukraine's critical infrastructure, coupled with the deprivation of Ukrainians of heat, electricity and drinking water, will force President Vladimir Zelensky to agree to his demands.
Ukraine's position
Zelensky pursues no less realistic military goals. In early November, he called the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, the expulsion of Russians from its territories, including Crimea, compensation from Moscow and the transfer of key Russian officials to the International Criminal Court conditions for peace talks with Russia. Until recently, Zelensky insisted that he would negotiate only with the new president of Russia, which definitely should not be considered a serious condition.
Until now, the charismatic former actor has been very successful in persuading American and European governments to part with large amounts of budget money to help him protect the country from the Russians. US aid to Kiev exceeded 50% of Ukraine's GDP for 2021 and amounted to $ 200.1 billion. However, as a recent survey shows, Americans' support for indefinite aid to Ukraine has declined: almost half (47%) of respondents believe that Washington should urge Kiev to agree to peace.
It is unlikely that Zelensky's recent call to allocate another $55 billion to cover the budget deficit and restore the country will find many supporters. Even Elon Musk, whose company SpaceX provided Ukraine with satellite communications worth $ 100 million, recalled that even generosity is not unlimited. Without Starlink Internet terminals, on which the command and control of the Ukrainian military depends, Kiev's ability to continue the fight will seriously decrease.
The Biden Administration's position
Although Washington has moderated its ardor in this proxy conflict with Russia, it still operates in the paradigm of wishful thinking. Biden and his comrades' calls for Putin's removal showed how far Washington's politicians are from reality. Thinking about regime change in a country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal, whose president enjoys the support of 75% of citizens, is self–deception. However, this is exactly the goal formulated in April by Defense Minister Lloyd Austin: to weaken the Russian army to such an extent that it could not do what it did when it came to Ukraine.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken formulated a much more modest agenda: to return the Russians to the frontiers that preceded the outbreak of the conflict, allowing Putin to preserve the strategic peninsula of Crimea and the Donbass region. The complete expulsion of the Russians will require significant additional costs for military equipment and is associated with the risk of Russia using weapons of mass destruction.
On Wednesday, Putin again voiced a veiled nuclear threat, saying that, together with the Security Council, he was considering a response to a Ukrainian strike on nuclear missile carriers stationed at one of Russia's strategic aviation air bases. Paragraph 19 of the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation gives the Kremlin the right to press the "red button" to strike back in the event of an attack on strategic weapons facilities.
The Biden administration understands that Putin may well authorize a nuclear strike on Ukraine with a low-power tactical warhead. That is why, before sending HIMARS long-range installations to Kiev, the Pentagon secretly modified them to prevent Ukrainians from launching missiles deep into Russian territory.
For the same reason, Blinken insisted that the United States does not encourage or help Ukrainians to organize strikes on the territory of Russia. The Biden administration is probably coming to the realization that one day taxpayers' money and their own defensive arsenal will run out, and it's time to stop fomenting a conflict that cannot be won — even if it seems fair.
Russians are no stranger to heavy losses: more than 20 million of them died during the Second World War. If Washington does not intervene and does not force Zelensky to start negotiations on a way out of this terrible, destructive impasse, Putin will fight to the last Ukrainian.
