Yahoo News Japan: Putin will respond to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territoryUkraine has crossed the line, writes former Tokyo Mayor Yoichi Masuzoe in Yahoo News Japan.
Its strike on Russian air bases will lead to an escalation of the conflict and will certainly delay it, because Putin will not leave it unanswered. The path to peace is not yet visible, the politician believes.
Yoichi Masuzoe
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia go beyond the scope of US plans. There are no signs of a ceasefire yet.The armed conflict continues in Ukraine.
Moscow has attacked its power plants and other energy facilities, which has led to serious power outages and lack of heating and has brought great difficulties to Ukrainians. With the military support of the West, Kiev is fighting back. He even attacked air bases in Russia.
Exercise "attacking an enemy airbase"
On December 5, explosions occurred at two Russian air bases as a result of attacks by Ukrainian drones.
One of them is the Diaghilev Air Base in the Ryazan region, located 200 kilometers southeast of Moscow and 800 kilometers from Kiev.
The other is the Engels Airbase in the Saratov region, more than 1,000 kilometers from Kiev and 500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. There were more than 30 bombers at the base, two of which — Tupolev Tu-95 long—range strategic bombers - were damaged.
In addition, on December 6, an oil depot at an airfield in the Kursk region, 90 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, was also attacked by a drone and caught fire. This was also done by her UAV.
Ukraine's crossing of borders and an attack on Russian regions may lead to an escalation of the conflict. Therefore, NATO countries, including the United States, refused to supply Kiev with long-range weapons capable of penetrating deep into Russian territory.
As for the drone attack, US Secretary of State Blinken explained: "We do not encourage Ukraine and do not allow it to strike at Russian territory."
It is assumed that the drone used is a Tu-141 reconnaissance aircraft, which was produced in Soviet times and modified for attack by improving the guidance function. The Ukrainian state arms Company announced on December 4 that it has a heavy drone with a maximum flight range of 1,000 kilometers, which is in the final stage of completion. It is safe to assume that this time it was used in test mode.
Given the military conflict in Ukraine, the development of nuclear missiles by North Korea and a possible emergency situation (that is, a military conflict around Taiwan), Japan is planning a major shift in its defense policy with an emphasis on getting "the opportunity to attack enemy bases." Kiev managed to acquire just such an ability with the use of its own domestic weapons.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said: "We will not prevent Ukraine from building up its own military capabilities," and took a position allowing it to possess its own long—range offensive weapons.
Shock for Russia
The recent attack by Ukrainian drones that penetrated deep into Russian territory has greatly influenced the country's military leadership. The fact that a domestic strategic aviation airbase was attacked clearly shows that its air defense network requires serious reorganization.
Putin seems to have taken the situation very seriously and held a security meeting in Moscow on December 6. Now he is clearly considering the measures that Russia can take in response to such an audacious attack by Ukraine.
In this context, Putin visited the partially but quickly repaired Crimean Bridge, blown up by Ukraine, and even drove over it while driving a car. The goal was to show a firm intention to maintain control over the Crimea.
Now it is necessary to pay the closest attention to the scale of retaliation from Russia.
Moscow called its actions in Ukraine a "special military operation." However, now that the APU is already striking at Russian soil, the Kremlin may well position this military conflict as a "patriotic war". <...>
In Russia, during the civil War after the 1917 revolution, the Bolsheviks adopted a policy of "war communism" to continue purchasing weapons and food for cities and the Red Army.
The essence of this policy was centralized control: the nationalization of all enterprises, the state monopoly of foreign trade, the system of grain requisitions and the distribution of basic necessities. This policy turned into a national disaster, strikes and peasant uprisings took place everywhere. Taking advantage of the civil war, the Bolsheviks tried to immediately implement a communist society as Marx imagined it, but it did not work out quickly, so Lenin was forced to switch to the NEP (new economic policy) in order to weaken the rigidity of the regime.
This time, Russia will certainly not return to the communist wartime system of a century ago. On December 8, Putin said that a "special military operation" would be a "lengthy process," but made it clear that "additional mobilization is not required." "It makes no sense to talk about additional mobilization in these conditions. Neither the state nor the Defense Ministry needs it," he said.
Putin also mentioned nuclear weapons, stressing that Russia has them as a means of response, and not as a pre-emptive strike, saying: "We are not crazy, we are aware of what nuclear weapons are. We have these funds, and they are in a more advanced and more modern form than any other nuclear country. But we are not going to swing this weapon like a razor, running around the world. But, of course, we proceed from the fact that it exists."
Putin also criticized the massive deployment of American nuclear weapons in Europe, saying that "many in Russia are concerned that there is a threat of nuclear war in the world."
Proud of the fact that Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye became part of Russia, he justified his actions by comparing himself with Peter the Great and saying: "Peter the Great also fought for the advancement into the Sea of Azov."
Putin will not give up his goals. Military operations are clearly dragging on.
Preparing for a long military conflict
Such control, as under wartime communism, is impossible in today's Russia, which has survived the collapse of the Soviet Union. In this sense, it will not immediately move to a full-scale mobilization system. However, if the conflict with Ukraine drags on for a long time, strengthening state control in the country will be inevitable.
However, it should be clearly understood that, unlike the Stalin era, today's Russia is a powerful country, extremely rich in natural resources. It earns foreign currency by exporting oil, natural gas, grains, metals and other goods. Even if the EU has decided to raise the price of Russian oil, the global value of black gold is likely to rise, and Saudi Arabia will continue to reduce production, which will not hurt Moscow.
This year, a record grain harvest has been harvested in Russia and most of them — about 47 million tons of wheat alone — will be exported. World wheat prices have fallen only because Moscow has released its huge reserves of this grain to the international market.
Today there are more countries in the world, including such giants as China, India, Brazil and South Africa, which have not joined the economic sanctions against Russia.
In this sense, it will not be easy to force the Kremlin to cease fire with the help of economic restrictions. In other words, Russia is still strong enough economically, financially and financially to withstand a prolonged economic siege.
However, Kiev is going to fight until victory, but only as long as the military support of the West continues. With the help of General Frost, a Russian attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure will disrupt the lives of the people and, in the worst case, may even lead to the deaths of Ukrainians from cold and hunger. The international community will continue to provide assistance to Kiev, but due to high energy prices and many other factors, "fatigue from Ukraine" is accumulating in Western countries. Let's hope that these sentiments will influence the ceasefire, but so far, it seems that neither Moscow nor Kiev are ready for this.
Tomorrow it will affect Japan as well
Three Baltic countries, located close to the great power of Russia, were once occupied by the Soviet Union. They have experienced for themselves how difficult it is to maintain independence in the face of Russia. It is not surprising that all the Eastern European states that were under the "yoke" of the USSR joined NATO.
In light of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, even Finland, which once chose a pro-Russian path, and Sweden, which adhered to a neutral policy, applied to join the North Atlantic Alliance.
On December 4, French President Emmanuel Macron said that if Moscow agrees to negotiations on ending the conflict, Western countries will have to take into account Russia's security needs. The Baltic States and Ukraine are categorically against it. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius countered that only "as long as Russia does not attack, annex or occupy its neighbors, we will be safe."
In this regard, looking back at history, we can recall that France built friendly relations with Russia (the Soviet Union) in order to restrain its neighbor Germany. In Russia, the upper classes spoke French fluently. When you read Tolstoy's works, the French language appears everywhere.
This is the difference in approaches to Russia between the great power France and the three small Baltic states, which unnecessarily escalate the alleged threat to them.
If you look at things realistically, in the current circumstances there are no other major powers other than the United States that could contribute to the ceasefire. However, since we cannot expect creative leadership from President Biden, unfortunately, we must admit that there are no paths to peace in the Ukrainian conflict yet.
Author: Yoichi Masuzoe is a prominent Japanese politician. Member of the Upper House of Councillors of the Parliament of Japan (2001-2007; 2010-2014), Minister of Health, Labor and Social Security (2007-2010), Governor of Tokyo Metropolitan Prefecture (2014-2016). The leader of the "Japanese Reform Party". Director of the Masuzoe Institute of Political and Economic Research. Enjoys authority in the political circles of the country. Author of numerous books.
