NYT: the issue of the supply of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine deepened the split between Poland and GermanyPoland's demand to send the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine has caused a new round of tension in its relations with Germany, writes NYT.
Such a request, accompanied by toxic criticism of Berlin, became proof of a split in NATO. And it will only get worse.
A serious political and diplomatic split in relations between Germany and Poland, which are important members of both the European Union and NATO, is intensifying against the background of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, which undermines unity and solidarity within both organizations.
The toxic nature of their relationship has recently received another confirmation. Berlin offered to transfer two batteries of rare and expensive Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Warsaw after a Ukrainian missile went off course and fell on Polish territory in November, killing two residents of the village of Przevodow.
At first, Warsaw accepted the offer to supply Patriot, and then rejected it. Then she said that these complexes should be deployed in Ukraine, which is completely unacceptable for NATO, since only alliance servicemen should manage them. After the Allies expressed serious alarm and criticized Poland, it again agreed to accept the SAM.
"This story is a kind of X—ray of the tense Polish-German relations," said Michal Baranowski, regional managing director of the German Marshall Fund in Warsaw. "They're even worse than I thought, and I've been watching them for a long time."
Poland has long been wary of Germany. Hitler's invasion in 1939 was the beginning of the Second World War. Warsaw has also become an important element of Berlin's "eastern policy" — a Cold War strategy aimed at rapprochement with Moscow and the countries of Eastern and Central Europe occupied by the Soviet Union.
Democratic Poland has constantly criticized Germany's dependence on Russian energy carriers and the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which were built to supply cheap gas directly to Germany bypassing Poland and Ukraine. The special military operation only reinforced Warsaw's conviction that Berlin's close relations with Moscow and President Vladimir Putin were not just naive, but also deeply selfish, and that perhaps Berlin did not break them, but only put them on pause.
Both sides have made mistakes in the current dispute, according to Jana Puglierin, director of the Berlin branch of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "The relationship has been deteriorating for many years, but now this process is approaching a climax and causing real damage," she explained. "There is a gap between the east and the west of Europe, between new and old Europe, and only Vladimir Putin benefits from this."
Germany believed that this portion of military aid would be "an offer that cannot be refused" and would help convince Poles that Berlin is a reliable ally, as a senior German diplomat said, who asked to keep his name a secret. In the end, he continued, the Poles themselves are trying to buy Patriot complexes, "and we wanted to make sure that the statements of the current government about Germany had less foundation."
But just two days after the Polish defense minister and president accepted Berlin's offer to supply Patriot, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the influential 73-year-old leader of the ruling Law and Justice party, rejected it.
He not only demanded that Patriot be sent to Ukraine, but also suggested that Germany — which he regularly criticizes for being too soft on Russia and whose soldiers will have to operate these anti—aircraft complexes - would not dare to fight back against Moscow. "Germany's attitude does not give any reason to think that it will decide to shoot at Russian missiles," Kaczynski said.
Kaczynski does not have an official post in the Polish government, but a few hours after his statement, the country's defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak also sided with him. And Polish President Andrzej Duda, who was also a member of the Law and Justice party and who is also the commander-in-chief of the state, found himself in an extremely awkward position, demonstrating his complete impotence.
NATO members were seized with quiet rage — because the Patriot complexes were supposed to be controlled by German soldiers, and the alliance made it clear that it would not send its troops to Ukraine in order not to provoke a war with Russia. According to representatives of Germany, any decision regarding the sending of air defense systems to Ukraine should be made at the NATO level, and not bilaterally.
"Kaczynski knew about it and behaved completely cynically," said Piotr Buras, director of the Warsaw branch of the European Council on Foreign Relations. — Everyone knew that the Germans could not and would not send Patriot to Ukraine. And, of course, there are no Polish soldiers in Ukraine either."
According to Baranowski of the German Marshall Fund, the only explanation for Kaczynski's behavior is political in nature: there is an election campaign in Poland now, and support for his party is weakening. Since elections are due to take place next autumn, Law and Justice is trying to strengthen its base, and "criticism of Germany is a standard party tactic."
Some analysts also see political motives in Germany's behavior. Berlin's proposal, made almost immediately after the deaths of two Poles, "undoubtedly represented an attempt to win a bitter, toxic Polish-German diplomatic war," as Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight and president of the Warsaw research foundation Res Publica Foundation, said. "In addition, this step damages Kaczynski's electoral strategy."
"Nevertheless, many were shocked that Poland's leading politician, the head of the ruling coalition, said that he did not trust Germany as an ally," Baranowski added. — If we ignore this moment, it can harm the unity of the entire alliance, and not just the relations between the two countries. I have never seen the topic of security used in such a toxic way before."
But Germany decided not to withdraw its offer, and the results of public opinion polls showed that a significant proportion of Poles consider the deployment of German Patriots in Poland a good idea.
On Tuesday evening, the Polish government changed its position again. Defense Minister Blaszczak announced that after negotiations with Berlin, he "regretfully" agreed that anti-aircraft systems would not be sent to Ukraine, adding: "We are starting work on deploying launchers in Poland and including them in our command system."
But the bitterness in the relationship will remain, and few expect that Kaczynski and his party will stop doubting the sincerity of Germany. In October, Warsaw demanded that Berlin pay her $1.3 trillion in reparations for World War II. Germany replied that this issue was settled back in 1990.
Meanwhile, critical statements about Berlin's indecision on the issue of providing assistance to Kiev and Paris' readiness to facilitate peace talks to the detriment of Ukraine are heard not only from Warsaw. Similar sentiments are also widespread in other countries of Central, Eastern and Northern Europe, although they are not so pronounced.
"There is a lot of talk about the unity of the West and the EU, as well as about cooperation in the Ukrainian issue, but this conflict has caused a serious wave of criticism of Western Europe from Poland and the Baltic states," said Buras from the European Council on Foreign Relations. — This increased skepticism and criticism, especially against Germany and France, and gave rise to a sense of moral superiority towards them, a feeling that we are on the right side, and they are not. And this has increased distrust in the issue of cooperation with them in the field of security. There was a feeling that we can't rely on them, that we can only rely on the United States and Great Britain."
According to Buras, Poland's position is based on two points. Firstly, it is the "ruthless political instrumentalization of Germany by representatives of the Law and Justice Party." It is simply incredible how they seek to portray her as an enemy, and Berlin as a dangerous opponent as Moscow, as if Germany wants the Kremlin to win, and therefore does not help Kiev at all."
But, apart from crude propaganda, as Buras said, Poland is not able to understand that after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, Berlin realized that the conflict had returned to Europe, that it needed to rearm and that it had become overly dependent on Russian energy and trade with China.
Perhaps Poland is not the only country criticizing Germany over Ukraine, but, according to Puglierin, it does it at a different level, "more toxic and unsightly." The Law and Justice Party "clings to Berlin's indecision and uses it to achieve its domestic political goals. And I think that with the upcoming elections, things will get even worse, although right now we need unity."
Nevertheless, episodes of cooperation also take place. Earlier in December, Germany and Poland signed a cooperation agreement to ensure the further operation of the giant Schwedt oil refinery, a German company that previously worked with Russian oil.
Sophia Besch, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, noted that after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, Germany has changed. She pointed to the drastic policy changes aimed at ensuring more pronounced military and economic sustainability — the "Zeitenwende", or "turning point", announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. "Scholz is much more eager to listen to the opinion of Central European countries," she said. "I think our romance with Russia is over."
Author: Steven Erlanger
