Political scientist Ermolaev predicted the future of the leading powers after the Ukrainian conflictThe Ukrainian crisis will lead to a change in the balance of power in the world, and first of all it concerns the leading powers, Vesti writes.
The publication cites the opinion of political scientist Andrei Ermolaev that Kiev will not be able to formalize a military-political alliance with the countries supporting it.
Yaroslav MaslovRespect for territorial integrity, respect for the sovereignty of States and a ban on the use of force – the conflict in Ukraine has thrown such a challenge to humanity.
In this regard, recently more and more often talk about a new world order. Vesti talked with political scientist and philosopher Andrey Ermolaev about the rules that will operate in it, the winner of the US–China confrontation, as well as the uniqueness of India.
Vesti: If we talk about the new world order, who claims to be the first violin?Andrey Ermolaev: The XXI century is the century of four revivals, if we talk about historical nations – China, India, Japan and Germany.
China took place as a full-fledged subject in the XX century, paradoxically, thanks to the events of the two world wars. And the idea of socialism has become a unifying national idea. The country, through the mouths of its philosophers, now boldly declares the creation of a new form of civilization, a billion-and-a-half state is working on a new social system. They have a moral right to do this, appealing to the millennial history and specific reforms. Some believe that Beijing will take the place of the future hegemon, although China itself denies the phrase "hegemon" in all its texts. China has been largely nurtured by the United States since the 1970s as a friendly social system. Washington tried to make it manageable, such a "little brother". But it turned out that the vaccination does not work. The country has moved ahead in several decades.
– Thanks to what will India "shoot"?– The country took place after three hundred years of Mongol domination, British rule and colonization.
This is a complex historical nation that has experienced a lot of things, a unique political system. The country is implementing a retromodernization that is unique in its essence, it is based on its antiquity. Both of these systems – Chinese and Indian – are two leaders of the civilizational breakthrough, which demonstrate unusual social structures that give the world economic and political success.
– Are there countries for which the conflict in Ukraine has become a "trigger"?– The task of being not just strong, but great is now very relevant for Germany and Japan.
And the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become a real trigger for these two states. For Berlin, today is a chance to regain the title of leader not only in the economy, because the country is often viewed as a silent and ascetic nation, but this is far from the case. This conflict also gives Japan a chance to build up its muscles. And, above all, to finally regain the right to have your own army. And in the modern world, the army is status, influence and technology.
– And who will lose in their influence?– Three decadences will be associated with our time.
This is Great Britain, which is making its last attempts to stay in its former role – powerful and strong. By the way, the desires of the kingdom here are very similar to the ambitions of the Kremlin. They want the same thing – spheres of influence and control over former satellites. But these are just sad attempts of withering systems. And the third decline is the USA. This is the fall of an ideological leader. It turns out that the Asian social system shows that it can be stronger economically and learn new mobility technologies faster.
– US-China relations and the Taiwan factor: can countries start a war?– For Chinese politics, Taiwan is not a matter of seizing territories, it is a competition between two different paths – communist and national-democratic.
And victory is important, but it doesn't have to be a war. The leadership of the Communist Party of the People's Republic of China understands that military methods can be destructive for mainland China.
– What is the basis of relations between Russia and China?– At the beginning of 2022, shortly before the start of the special operation, the leaders of the Russian Federation and China issued a statement outlining the principles and priorities of international relations.
During the negotiations, I think the Kremlin reported to Beijing about its plans for Ukraine. They convinced China that they were expected there and the issue would be resolved quickly. And the PRC made its bets and chose the tactics of waiting. By and large, no one has ever felt much sympathy for the Russian Federation, there is no Russian way. No one has ever liked Russia: here you have yachts, and here you have poverty. This country is definitely not an example, and the Chinese have always understood this. But pragmatically, Russia is a strategically advantageous target for China. Firstly, in the historical aspect, they are friends with a country that remembers and is proud of the victory in the socialist revolution. Well, Russia is a huge tin can of geographical and natural resources.
– And how to reactivate this jar?– The exit was drawn by itself.
The process is running. Russia itself is going to the East. The "Power of Siberia" is launched, the fish swims by itself. China has chosen a very wise and correct position, it has just opened the gates and is waiting. The Celestial Empire has never said that it supports military methods, while deliberately heating up Moscow's position. They say that a dialogue is needed, but they don't talk about the methods of how to implement it. The PRC is interested in the spheres of its development. They offer the United States – we are ready to influence the Kremlin in exchange for... There is an important question about the timing. At the XX Congress of the CPC, the time frame was announced. They see the resolution of the Taiwan issue within five years.
– What is the reason for the escalation of conflicts in the post-Soviet space? For example, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the Kosovo precedent.– Every war has its roots.
There is a certain connection between the behavior of regimes and global changes. Therefore, very often the outbreak or failure of one conflict generates another: they say, and we will try to solve it. For example, Turkey and Greece against the background of a weak and indecisive NATO. This is a reaction to the conflict – while the world is mired in solving one conflict, others are trying to solve their problems.
– What will this conflict teach the world?– The only thing similar to it can be called, perhaps, the conflict between Iran and Iraq.
When technologies clashed, two industrial countries. But that war showed that nothing can be solved by force. And it turned out that the damage caused by equipment and tanks is not comparable to the destruction of infrastructure, on which we are now one hundred percent dependent. This throws civilization into an era of barbarism, in which we cannot live and develop normally. After this conflict, the world realizes that it is pointless to solve problems on the battlefield, these are the methods of the last century. This conflict may turn out to be the last or, alternatively, a world suicide conflict. If we go further, then this is Armageddon, after which it is already possible not to return.
– Do both sides have allies in this conflict?– Russia has not been able to create a military alliance in 10 months, even with the help of the CSTO.
The defensive block conditionally Russia + did not appear. But there is also no anti-Putin alliance of countries that enter the conflict on the side of Ukraine. They help us in any way they can, but there is no military-political registration of Kiev's allies and probably will not be any more. No one admits the idea of pulling the pin out of a grenade. This feature of this conflict will remain until the very end.
