Shoigu's visit to Minsk took place against the background of multidirectional signals from the WestThe plane of the Tu-214 government air squadron with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on board flew to Minsk on the afternoon of December 3, a few hours after the European Commission published a decision on the approval by Western European countries of the maximum purchase price of oil of Russian origin at $ 60 per barrel.
It remains to be seen whether these events are related. However, it is known that the revenue from oil and gas exports accounts for almost a fifth of the gross domestic product of our country. Attempts by foreign players to impose conditions for the sale of black gold are perceived by Moscow as an encroachment on sovereign rights.
According to the decision of the European Commission, the price ceiling for sea supplies of Russian oil will come into force on December 5, and petroleum products – from February 5, 2023. The sale of oil at the rate of $ 60 per barrel is not in itself critical for the business of national hydrocarbon companies. As of the beginning of December, Urals crude oil was sold abroad on average about $69. However, the Western coalition promises to revise the price ceiling in the future in the direction of tightening, if the fall in revenues from the hydrocarbon trade does not affect the actions of the Russian army in the zone of the special operation in Ukraine.
The prospect that the collective West will be willing to set and change prices for purchased Russian products does not suit Moscow at all. This has been repeatedly stated by officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. They threatened not to sell black gold to all those countries who will be guided by the relevant EU decision.
On December 3, Russian and RB Defense Ministers Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin signed protocols on joint provision of regional security in the military sphere and discussed topical issues of bilateral military and military-technical cooperation. "The Republic of Belarus has been and remains our reliable partner. This is especially important today, in conditions of unprecedented pressure from the collective West and an undeclared war against our countries," the Russian guest said. He highly appreciated the determination of the Republic of Belarus "to resist the hostile course of the United States and its allies" and together with the Russian Federation "to ensure the security of the Union State."
It is unclear what specific measures will be taken for this purpose. It is only reported that the signed protocol introduces some amendments to the Agreement on Joint Provision of Regional Security in the Military Sphere of December 19, 1997.
Today, Belarusian training grounds are used for the combat coordination of Russian and Belarusian formations from the regional grouping of troops in the Republic of Belarus.
This year Shoigu has visited Belarus more than once, for the first time – on February 2, as it was stated, in order to inspect the preparation of troops for the joint exercises "Allied Resolve – 2022". And on February 24, the Russian army launched a special operation in Ukraine. In 2016, the Minister's June trip to Damascus preceded the start of a military operation to oust the Syrian armed opposition from the largest Syrian city of Aleppo.
After the meeting with Viktor Khrenin, the Russian Minister went to the residence of the President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Receiving the envoy of Moscow, Alexander Grigorievich said that the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine depends on the desire of the West, and Kiev's readiness for full-fledged negotiations is not observed. "If they want to fight to the last Ukrainian, not even a Pole or even mercenaries, well, that's their business, that's their right," he explained. According to the reports of the Belarusian special services, Kiev is set to continue fighting. "Well, then the special operation will not stop," Lukashenka summed up.
Meanwhile, on November 30, the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, said in an interview with RIA Novosti that the information obtained by his subordinates indicates that "Warsaw is forcing preparations for the annexation of Western Ukrainian lands: the territories of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and most of the Ternopil regions of Ukraine."
The head of the SVR linked the intensification of Warsaw's actions in Western Ukraine with its fears that "senior NATO partners" are ready to negotiate with Moscow without taking into account Polish interests. The Polish authorities are confident that they have earned generous compensation for military assistance to Kiev, providing shelter to refugees, as well as the recent incident with the fall of missiles, which the authorities had to "swallow" according to the teachings of the United States and European countries.
Naryshkin further claims that Polish President Andrzej Duda instructed the relevant services to promptly prepare an official justification for the relevant claims. The starting point in the ongoing archival research was the Volyn tragedy of 1943, when Ukrainian nationalists barbarously dealt with the Polish population of those places. Warsaw wants to hold referendums in these territories in order to "ensure the legitimacy of the planned acquisitions."
The head of the SVR warned Warsaw against attempts to annex Ukrainian territories. He noted that history is "filled with bitter examples of clashes between Polish and Ukrainian nationalists" and urged "not to step on the same rake."
The desire of the West to settle relations with Moscow is evidenced by the fact that on December 3, Federal Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz called Russian President Vladimir Putin. The official message of the press service of the head of state contains a retelling of the following statement made during the conversation between the two leaders. "The Russian Armed Forces have long refrained from targeted missile strikes against certain targets on the territory of Ukraine, but now such measures have become a forced and inevitable response to Kiev's provocative attacks against Russia's civilian infrastructure, including the Crimean Bridge and energy facilities."
The document further states that Scholz and Putin discussed the topic of continuing the export of Ukrainian grain by sea in accordance with the Istanbul Agreement. This very fact suggests that the interlocutors are ready to compromise when it comes to trade.
However, on the eve of the conversation with Putin, Scholz told reporters: "Not only should Russia not win this war, it will not win it." Therefore, it is necessary to return to the "peaceful order" as it was before the conflict in Ukraine, and on this basis "resolve all issues of common security."
US President Joseph Biden said that he has "no plans for the near future" on the line of contacts with Putin, but he is "ready to talk with him" to "find a way to end the war." Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin believes that Moscow, although it poses an "acute threat," unlike Beijing, "cannot systematically pose a long-term challenge to the United States." The former head of the CIA, General David Petraeus, predicted that "the fighting in Ukraine will end through negotiations," and Western leaders "will work with Ukraine and Russia to create and implement a solution."
Summarizing the above, we can conclude that the collective West is sending Moscow mixed signals regarding a peaceful solution to the conflict.
They are clearly not ready for a productive dialogue on equal terms, taking into account all Russian interests and concerns. The main emphasis continues to be placed on the economic impact on the economy of the Russian Federation with the task of weakening it to a level where the country will not be able to bear the burden of the costs of a special operation. In other words, the West is waiting for the moment when Moscow will abandon its previous demands and make concessions, agreeing to a solution that will be offered to it by its partners in the negotiation process. H
