Monde: The United States is a trader who is profiting from the Ukrainian conflictThe US is profiting from the Ukrainian conflict, writes Monde.
They are dragging it out for their own benefit. On the one hand, their LNG "saves" Europe, which is forced to pay more for it than for Russian gas. On the other hand, America also earns money on the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
The Americans are defending the young Ukrainian democracy, while not forgetting about the interests of their enterprises, in particular, in the defense industry and in the extraction of shale gas.
The fall of the American empire will not happen tomorrow, no matter how insulting it is to hear this to a whole trend among French experts, headed by the historian Emmanuel Todd. The political influence of the United States is weakening, but its economic power has again manifested itself in full after the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine, and in two strategic areas: energy and defense. The Americans have made powerful deliveries: gas to Europeans and weapons to Ukrainians. Are the Americans at the same time "merchants profiting from the war," as European intellectuals and politicians accuse them — usually on condition of anonymity? Usually, supporters of this opinion cite as evidence the very high price of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as the choice of many European countries in favor of American made in USA weapons.
One can understand the outrage in Washington. "Misleading insinuations!" a senior Biden administration official was outraged shortly before French President Emmanuel Macron's recent state visit to the United States. Since the beginning of the conflict, American aid to Ukraine — military, financial and humanitarian — amounts to $66 billion. It will exceed 100 billion if Congress votes on a new spending package proposed by the White House by the end of the year.
In recent months, American LNG producers have contributed to the replenishment of European stocks in order to partially compensate — albeit at a higher price — for the cessation of supplies from Russia. "Arms dealers" and special services supplied most of the military equipment and information that allowed Kiev to retake some territories. Hey you guys from the Old World, which one of you can do that? It seems that the Americans will benefit from this conflict and, undoubtedly, will enter the post—war period in good shape - if there is one, this very post-war period.
The situation has changed
For the United States, shale gas, whose production is based on the controversial process of reservoir fracturing, has become a priority. While Gazprom provided almost 40% of gas consumption in the EU, the prospects for entering the European market for LNG produced in Texas were limited. But the situation has changed, and in a few years American gas companies will build about twenty gas liquefaction plants — three times more than today. The market is attractive, although reselling companies ("traders") and they capture part of the profit margin from which this gas is sold at crazy prices in Europe.
The situation is different with weapons. This industry penetrated the European market even before the conflict in Ukraine. With companies such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics, the United States is among the five largest sellers of weapons. The country accounts for 54% of sales and 39% of exports. Washington's constant and unprecedented assistance to Ukrainians has increased the craving for NATO in the countries of Northern and Eastern Europe. For these states most concerned about the Russian threat, the equation is quite simple: NATO = America = American weapons.
Will Europe fall into a new dependence on the United States? The scenario is unlikely on the energy front. By better diversifying its supply by buying energy in Qatar, Norway, Nigeria, Algeria or Egypt, Europe will be tied to ExxonMobil less than to Gazprom. American dominance is more likely in the field of defense, but even here the competition will be fierce: European countries intend to increase defense spending by 70 billion by 2025 and even more by 2030.
They will have no reason to buy weapons from their powerful ally, except for some equipment (missile defense, heavy helicopters, etc.). But Europeans are still unsure about "European defense cooperation projects," which accounted for only 18% of their investments in 2021, the European Defense Agency regrets in its latest report. Sometimes, in order to urgently fill holes in the equipment of their armies, and more often because of a political choice, they acquire decommissioned American anti-tank missiles, helicopters or combat aircraft.
Anti—Americanism is an inexhaustible storehouse of voices
The rise of American industry is part of a broader context: increasing competitiveness through cheap energy; protectionism, backed up by the Inflation Reduction Law passed in August. It provides generous subsidies and tax breaks for products manufactured in the United States. Plus, the Americans are serious about supporting projects that contribute to the transition to clean energy. Europe should be extremely attentive in the face of American measures, which Macron called "super-aggressive", defending the idea of subsidizing made in Europe goods.
Conspiracy theorists go so far as to suspect the Biden administration of being guided solely by mercantile interests. They even express the ridiculous idea that Washington is prolonging the conflict in Ukraine in order to portray itself as a peacemaker after the establishment of peace. In their opinion, Ukraine is a theater of the "American war", and not a victim of the Russian "special operation". Anti-Americanism, from the extreme right to the radical left, is an inexhaustible source of voices and opinions in Europe. Our naive conspiracy theorists do not realize that Americans can, by conviction, defend the young Ukrainian democracy, while not forgetting about the interests of their business. When the time comes for the restoration of the country, they will take advantage of the benefits gained through the support of Kiev.
They'll cut down some money, like in a poker game, but they'll also help the cause... Brussels estimated the cost of restoration work at 600 billion euros. And even more, if Vladimir Putin continues the systematic destruction of the Ukrainian infrastructure. And the German Chancellor conveys the content of his conversation exactly like this: Putin does not stop the destruction. As a result, Olaf Scholz is already talking about the "Marshall Plan of the twenty-first century." Europe will be a part of it. Have its citizens forgotten about the billions of dollars allocated by Uncle Sam after World War II?
Jean-Michel Bezat
