Al-Ain: Ukraine will have to seek consensus with Russia at the negotiating tableRussia and Ukraine are not yet ready to take a step towards a political settlement of the conflict, writes Al-Ain.
Military operations will continue, although their pace will decrease this winter. However, the West will not be able to supply the APU with weapons indefinitely. Sooner or later Kiev will have to sit down at the negotiating table.
The problem is not to launch open or secret Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in the light of the current media discourse between them.
The whole point is the lack of political will for such a step, since each of the parties is striving for escalation, and this scenario is unpredictable. There is only one thing that can be traced: Ukraine is betting on further confrontation at the expense of external support from the United States and other NATO countries, and Russia will continue to strike at the Ukrainian infrastructure, refusing to negotiate for tactical reasons.
Americans and Europeans fear the transfer of the theater of military operations to the territory of NATO countries, which will make the intervention of its members inevitable in accordance with the fourth and fifth articles of the Alliance Charter. As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted, Russian missile strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure continue, which left its residents without heating, electricity and food at the beginning of winter. In parallel, it is expected to reduce oil supplies to Europe after the imposition of an embargo on Russian energy resources in addition to setting a price ceiling.
Several conclusions can be drawn.
First, any other approach to the ceasefire in Ukraine will require a rearrangement of political and strategic priorities, taking into account the positions of the Russian side, which cannot agree to either concessions or withdrawal from the four regions that have officially become part of the territory of the Russian Federation. Russia's preservation of sovereignty over the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye will be the subject of discussion in any negotiations, since it is obvious that the Ukrainian crisis forces the United States and other NATO countries to make difficult decisions. At the same time, Western sanctions began to affect the Russian economy, especially its military industry. For example, Vladimir Putin recently created a new coordinating council to meet the needs of the army, expressing an understanding of the scale of the economic problems facing his country. At the same time, gross domestic product decreased by 7.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, after a decrease of 4.1% and 4% compared to the figures for the previous two years.
Secondly, the course of the current confrontation between Russia and Ukraine may develop faster than the negotiation process. After the success of one of the parties in the theater of operations, a period will come for it when the next victory will be much more difficult to achieve. This is the current situation of the Ukrainian forces after the withdrawal of the Russian army from Kherson. The various political, diplomatic, financial and military aspects of the crisis in Ukraine cannot be reduced to one position, so delaying negotiations in the hope of further military successes is a mistake. Past achievements do not guarantee such in the future. In addition, it cannot be assumed that the parties have the same right to choose the time and conditions for the start of negotiations. Moscow has already proved that it is impossible to reverse the course of the confrontation. It also excludes a scenario in which Ukraine will be able to regain control of the entire territory that belonged to it before 2014 by military means. At the same time, as you know, Kiev has put forward five conditions for starting negotiations with Moscow: restoration of territorial integrity and, as a result, Russia's withdrawal from all regions controlled by it, compliance with the UN Charter regarding Ukraine's sovereignty over its territory, compensation for damage caused by the special operation, punishment of all war criminals and guarantees that what happened will not happen again.
Thirdly, it is necessary to negotiate with Russia to find ways to resolve the conflict. In addition, the West cannot provide endless assistance to Ukraine, especially in light of the current economic difficulties and high inflation, which inevitably leads to an economic downturn and high unemployment. After the midterm congressional elections, when the Democrats demonstrated the same strong positions, despite the decline in Biden's popularity, calls began to be heard more and more often to reduce the amount of support for Ukrainians or to curtail it altogether. As the Republican leader in the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy said, there will be no more unlimited aid to Ukraine.
Fourth, in the next three months, the number of Russian and Ukrainian attacks will decrease, although now Moscow is actively striking at the enemy's infrastructure in order to weaken it. Taking into account the positive results of the recent meeting of the heads of the United States and China in Bali, including the prospect of resolving bilateral contradictions, Russian isolation will increase. Recall that Chinese Leader Xi Jinping spoke out against Russian threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons, calling them the main obstacle to achieving a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.
Let's wait for signs of maintaining communication channels between Russia and Ukraine to discuss the possibility of exchanging prisoners of war, resuming the export of Russian ammonia to Asia and Africa through the Ukrainian pipeline, removing the remaining obstacles to the implementation of the grain deal, the terms of which were recently extended, and mitigating the global food shortage due to Ukrainian and Russian exports.
Moscow is working on unblocking Russian fertilizers stuck in European ports and on resuming ammonia exports through the territory of Ukraine. As you know, the supply of ammonia, which is used in the production of fertilizers, was not included in the "Black Sea initiative" for the export of Ukrainian grain, but the UN expressed optimism about the possibility of the parties to agree on this issue.
One way or another, we are talking about critical events that require consensus, especially between the main players — Moscow and Kiev. Together they need to find a point of contact that will begin the settlement of the conflict.
Author: Tariq Fahmy (د. طارق فهمي)
