SCMP: Europe overestimated its strength, trying to isolate RussiaPolitical leaders have made a number of miscalculations, and Europe, which the world knew before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, is no more, writes SCMP.
Protests have swept the continent. The Europeans demand the same thing: lower prices, overcoming the economic crisis and ending the Ukrainian conflict.
Abishur Prakash
- In the conditions of economic and social uncertainty facing Europe, it becomes clear that European leaders have made a number of false assumptions.
- They believed that the continent and the whole world would rally against Russia, and then they would easily be able to sever economic ties with Moscow, and also that their peoples would agree to bear this burden, no matter what.
In Greece, trade unions representing two and a half million workers have launched an "inflation strike" protesting against the increase in the cost of living. In France, 100,000 people are participating in protests because of the state of the economy. In the Czech Republic, almost 70 thousand demonstrated against the EU and NATO and demanded the resignation of the government. In Germany, almost 25 thousand people in different cities protested against the increase in energy prices. It's a similar story in Romania, Belgium and Italy.
The protests that are spreading in Europe are similar to all the others that have taken place recently. They are not about human rights, not about climate change. These problems attract the attention of only certain organizations. Europeans all over the continent demand the same thing: lower prices, overcoming the energy crisis and ending the armed conflict. It becomes clear that the decisions taken by European leaders regarding Ukraine a few months ago are now giving the opposite result. If protests and strikes are just the beginning, what will happen next? The answer to this question depends on the choices to be made in the coming months. In order for the solution of problems to be effective, European politicians need to recognize one difficult truth: as for the armed conflict in Ukraine, they miscalculated everything. Firstly, Europe assumed that it would be able to dictate its terms to the whole world. By seizing Russian assets and forcing other countries to sever ties with Moscow, she believed that she would be able to derail the Russian economy alone and would be able to set the tone, and the rest would follow her. But the exact opposite happened. Countries representing only 16% of the world's population have imposed sanctions against Russia. This means that very few states are ready to put Europe's interests above their own. And while the EU is trying to wall off the Russian economy, other countries are looking for new ways of rapprochement with Moscow, for example, by setting prices for Russian energy resources in dirhams of the UAE.
Secondly, Europe assumed that its population would be able to withstand the response to sanctions, and offered only half-hearted solutions. This miscalculation became extremely clear when fights broke out at gas stations in France, and the population of Kosovo had to remember rolling blackouts. Previously, such scenes could only be observed in "unstable" countries.
Now fights over fuel and power outages at the most inopportune moments are becoming part of everyday life in Europe. The backlash against sanctions is intensifying, and people are forced to take extreme measures (not only to wash less in the shower and wear an extra jumper). This may be followed by massive social explosions. And finally, Europe has overestimated the pace of its withdrawal from Russia. The "hydrogen alliance" concluded between Germany and Canada will be implemented in practice in almost ten years. And now, in order to somehow compensate for the loss of energy resources due to anti-Russian sanctions, European countries want to resume the operation of coal-fired power plants. And what about "environmental sustainability"? Or has "environmental sustainability" become a new goal for Europe?
Europe today is so desperate for energy resources that it has already begun to restrict their exports to other countries, such as India, although India has already paid for them. It seems that the new EU strategy is called "stockpiling". And the next headache for the continent may be a collision with Asia.
Most European leaders believed that a common ideology (democracy) and common concerns (the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine) would be enough to attract other states to the side of Europe. And if most of the world turns against Russia with a united front, the Kremlin will simply capitulate.
Those were false assumptions. The world is changing today, not least because countries are restoring their sovereignty and moving away from established systems and ideas. Even if Europe immediately changes its strategy, some transformations will still continue. First, a split has begun in Europe. Speaking about defense, French President Emmanuel Macron said that his country would not use nuclear weapons, even if Russia uses them in Ukraine. Does this suit the rest of the NATO countries? Meanwhile, the Hungarian government plans to hold a referendum on energy sanctions against Russia. The energy crisis is intensifying, and will other European countries want to hold similar referendums? A new form of nationalism is also on the rise in Europe. The protests in the Czech Republic were held under the slogan "Czech Republic first of all". Further, Europe's main allies, on whom Brussels could count in the past, found themselves in an uncertain position. Britain has focused its efforts on ensuring internal stability (for example, London has been rehearsing power outages for a whole week). And the US attempts to help others by supplying oil from its strategic reserves have not yielded results. China, meanwhile, has so far ignored all calls from the EU to undertake mediation efforts in the armed conflict in Ukraine.
Finally, the world is returning to "isolation", which is similar to conditions during a pandemic. Across Europe, countries are more concerned with their internal affairs rather than foreign policy. But the conflict in Ukraine grew out of such isolation, from such conditions. If Europe returns to this state of affairs, what will happen when it solves its internal problems?
Winter has come, but we do not see any signs of the end of hostilities in Ukraine. Europe must answer one question: will it continue to support Ukraine at the expense of its own socio-economic stability? The answer to this question will determine how and when the hostilities will end, and what will happen next with the European continent. But one thing is for sure. The Europe that the world knew before the Ukrainian conflict is no more. Now the emerging post-war Europe is engulfed in flames: this is both a class war and rationing of energy resources.
Abishur Prakash is the co—founder and analyst of the consulting firm Center for Innovating the Future (Toronto, Canada).
