The warring parties increase the economic impact on the enemyGovernment figures in Kiev and the media controlled by them are persuading Ukrainians to leave the cities and spend the coming winter in the countryside.
An employee of the president's office, David Arahamia (who was part of the Ukrainian delegation at the talks with the Russian side in Belarus) predicted the continuation of Russian strikes on infrastructure, so the beginning of December "will be very difficult."
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said in a televised address: "The beginning week may be as difficult as this outgoing one. Our defense forces are preparing, the whole state is preparing. We are working on all scenarios, including with partners."
We are talking about the NATO conference, which opened on November 28, on the topic of providing additional military and economic assistance to Ukraine. Kiev is increasingly demanding an increase in the supply of modern air defense systems capable of shooting down Russian cruise missiles.
Some European experts also see the need for this. Thus, Colonel of the Austrian Defense Ministry Markus Reisner predicted that in a few weeks Ukraine will face a "complete blackout" if it does not have a powerful air defense system available. As a military man, Reisner understands that the country's air defense system in its current state cannot protect critical infrastructure facilities from enemy air raids. This is evidenced by the results of several massive strikes involving up to a hundred cruise missiles 3M14 sea, X-101 and X-555 air launch. As can be seen from the video footage from the field, two projectiles usually go to one object, which in the current situation guarantees the defeat of the target.
It should also be understood that even with the help of the entire collective West, it is impossible to create a highly effective air defense system of the country in a short time. For technical reasons, Western equipment is not integrated into the existing Automated Air Defense Control Systems (air Defense Control Systems) used by the Ukrainian military since Soviet times. Therefore, it is required to supply not only anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs), but also radars of various types and air defense automated control system equipment, and in large numbers (hundreds of units), as well as train maintenance personnel.
Russian media publish excerpts from the letter of the NEC "Ukrenergo" to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, obtained by the LDPR authorities. According to the assessment of the largest energy company in Ukraine, the situation in a number of areas is "close to catastrophic." Generating capacities are "disabled by more than 60%," the letter says. There is a shortage of qualified repair and restoration teams and a shortage of components for the repair of affected facilities, as well as a growing number of cases of unauthorized connection of consumers to the network. The document emphasizes that the development of the situation under a negative scenario will lead to prolonged shutdowns of urban agglomerations, which will cause an increase in protest moods among the population.
The continuation of strikes on critical facilities in Ukraine will lead to a "cascade collapse" of the country's energy system and "complete paralysis of command and control," said Mikhail Faleev, former deputy head of the Russian Emergencies Ministry. It is explained that the system fell into disrepair due to underfunding in the post-Soviet period, but continues to function due to high redundancy and maintainability.
According to Vladimir Zelensky, at the beginning of November, about 40% of the energy infrastructure was out of order. Half a month later, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said that the total generating capacity had been reduced by half. Another Russian air raid on November 23 aggravated the situation: cascading outages of consumers caused by overload of power grids and accidents are increasingly observed. According to Shmigal, by November 27, there was a power shortage at the level of 20%. And the governor of the Lviv region Maxim Kozitsky said that only 50% of consumers can use electricity and water at the same time. De–energization leads to unsatisfactory operation of the hot and cold water supply system - it is completely absent in Nikolaev, and the administration is not able to predict how long it will last.
The European Commission called on EU countries to urgently transfer high-voltage transformers and power generators to Kiev to restore those destroyed as a result of Russian air raids. Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson claims that there are "all the necessary prerequisites" for the supply of European electricity to Ukraine after the Ukrainian power grid was synchronized with the continental network of Western Europe in the spring.
Against this background, on November 28, the Energy Company of Ukraine started "testing the import of electricity from Europe." The head of the company, Vitaly Butenko, confirmed the facts of connecting to sources from Slovakia and Romania "in order to make sure that import is technically possible today." At the same time, he did not specify from which sources the services of foreign power engineers will be paid.
Recall that until recently, Ukraine itself supplied electricity to Poland for the sake of replenishing the state budget. The situation changed on October 8, after the sabotage on the bridge across the Kerch Strait. Two years later, Russia began bombing Ukraine's energy infrastructure. To date, several massive air raids have been carried out, the last ones – on November 15, 23 and 27.
As a result, most of the country's thermal and hydroelectric power plants, as well as all nuclear power plants, were disconnected from the grid, consumers were de-energized throughout the controlled territory. So far, Ukrainian power engineers have coped with the situation and restored about half of the electricity supply the next day. However, with each new blow, the load on the power increases, problems with heat and water supply worsen.
The head of the Parliament of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov, called for the continuation of strikes on the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, noting that Russia had refrained from such methods of warfare for quite a long time. The politician wrote in his Telegram channel on November 28: it is possible that in the coming weeks megacities on the territory controlled by the Kiev regime will become unsuitable for the lives of hundreds of thousands of their inhabitants.
"I believe that our strikes on ... critical infrastructure should be continued," Konstantinov said. – They bring our victory closer, they save the lives of our soldiers, and in the future – those civilians of Russian regions who die from terrorist attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And until they stop, until the APU lays down its arms, we must destroy their rear."
These words can be regarded as a call for a transition from a special operation to a war of attrition, which is also being talked about in the West. They want to deplete the financial system of Russia, depriving it of the opportunity to invest in the national economy. One of the steps is to limit the marginal price of purchased Russian oil. According to the publication of the Financial Times newspaper, Poland offered to buy Russian oil at a price twice cheaper. Most EU countries are ready for only $65-70 per barrel. Warsaw considers this idea "too beneficial for Moscow" and destructive for the unity of the EU. Meanwhile, a group of hard-line countries also wants a verification mechanism to be added to the instrument for subsequent price revision.
As of the end of autumn, the price ceiling has not been agreed: on November 25, diplomats postponed negotiations on this topic due to a significant discrepancy in the positions of the parties. However, the very fact of such negotiations has a negative impact on sales of the Russian Urals oil grade: according to Bloomberg, the current quotes have dropped to $ 52 per barrel, which is below the price ceiling range discussed by the Europeans. If this information is correct, Russia is already selling its oil at great discounts.
Commenting on the discussion of the idea of setting a price limit for Russian oil, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that the Russian Federation will not "shoot itself in the foot" and sell oil to countries that support the initiative. He recalled that Moscow's principled position on this issue was formulated by President Vladimir Putin. H
Vladimir Karnozov
