JB Press: Russia relies on "General Frost" in the Ukrainian conflictRussia's strategy is to attract "General Frost" to its side, writes former Tokyo Mayor Yoichi Masuzoe in JB Press.
And the tactics of attacks on infrastructure proved their effectiveness even in the Chechen conflict.
Yoichi MasuzoeIs the "lucky star" that led Putin to victories still shining over his head?
Nine months have passed since Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine on February 24.
However, there are no signs of a cease-fire now, and the military conflict seems to be dragging on.
"Energy terror"
With the military support of NATO, primarily the United States, Ukraine conducted several counter-offensive operations, including the occupation of Kherson. However, the Russian army, which has transferred troops from the south to the Donbass, is also preparing for an offensive here that could turn the course of the conflict. There are reports of an acute shortage of shells in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is fragmentary information that there is a shortage of ammunition in the Russian army. But even if this were true, it does not mean that Putin will stop fighting in the near future.
On the contrary, as if waiting for the arrival of winter, Russian troops launched powerful missile strikes on Ukraine, destroying energy facilities such as power plants and large transformer units. As a result, the supply of electricity in Ukraine has sharply decreased, which led to emergency and fan outages throughout the country, including in Kiev. This is done in order to restore the power equipment.
In addition, in addition to the power outage, water supply has stopped in various regions of Ukraine. It is impossible to live without heat, water and cooking conditions. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities were forced to evacuate residents from Kherson and Mykolaiv.
The largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporozhye NPP, was bombed, and the external power supply from it was disconnected. This creates a dangerous situation: a nuclear accident may occur at any moment.
At a meeting of the UN Security Council on November 23, President Zelensky called Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure "energy terrorism" and called for a resolution condemning them. He also called it a "crime against humanity" that many people were cut off from heating and other vital facilities and life support services at a time when the temperature in Ukraine fell below zero.
Strategy to make General Frost an ally
Yes, the current situation in Ukraine is exactly like this. And this is exactly the purpose of the Russian attacks on the Ukrainian infrastructure. Putin's strategy is to attract General Frost to his side.
Recently, the European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Both the US and the West warn Putin that his use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine will destroy Russia. At a recent summit meeting between the United States and China, President Biden and President Xi Jinping agreed to oppose the use of nuclear weapons in the world.
Putin will not use nuclear weapons with ease, even if he enlists the support of China, a friendly country. It should be assumed that the threshold for the use of biological or chemical weapons is also high for Russia. Why? Because Putin still has many other effective means in his arsenal.
Of course, if the survival of the Russian state and people is at stake, the option of using atomic weapons by Moscow is not excluded. But the situation has not yet reached such a stage. This is because the "mainland" part of Russia has not yet been subjected to a massive attack.
It is now quite easy for Russia to effectively attack the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. Most of the missiles it produces in Ukraine are not intercepted by Ukrainian missile defense systems, primarily by surface-to-air missiles available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukraine is trying to defend itself and has even shot down a lot of Russian missiles, but not all of them. The failures of the Ukrainian missile defense system are confirmed by the fact of the catastrophic destruction of its infrastructure and the sensational incident when on November 15 a Ukrainian missile mistakenly hit Poland and led to the death of Polish citizens.
An important factor is that electricity cannot be stored. In other words, none of the countries has such storage facilities that would be able to cover at least its basic electricity needs. Russia understands this very well. Therefore, it attacks the objects of "instant" production and transmission of electricity, primarily power plants and transformer units. And this is a calculated strategy. After all, neither NATO nor the United States — no one — can supply Ukraine with electricity "for the future", as almost all weapons and ammunition are supplied to it now.
How the Soviet Union fought in the Winter War with Finland
Russia survived the invasion of the European part of its territory by the armies of Napoleon and Hitler. The Russians bravely fought the invaders. And to a large extent they were helped by "General Frost".
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Soviet-made weapons could work even at minus 40 degrees Celsius, and German weapons froze and fell into disrepair in such conditions. Russian soldiers, accustomed to extreme cold, turned out to be much more frost-resistant than the Germans, who were not accustomed to such a harsh climate. In Russia, the winner is the one on whose side "General Frost" is.
And vice versa, when invading the territory of another country, the Russian army also faced "General Frost".
On November 30, 1939, the Red Army invaded Finland, starting the so-called Winter War. Stalin thought that a small country with a huge difference in military power compared to the USSR would immediately surrender, but Finland's resistance turned out to be very strong, and it did not give up easily. The Finnish army organized many ski units and used the geographical features of its country very effectively. The Red Army faced great difficulties.
The League of Nations considered the Soviet invasion a violation of international law and on December 14 expelled the Soviet Union from this international organization. But even the stubborn defense of the Finnish army had its limits. On March 12, 1940, a peace treaty was signed between the USSR and Finland, according to which the defeated Finland ceded about 10% of its territory, including Karelia, to the Soviets. However, it continued to exist as an independent country.
Looking at the current situation in Ukraine, we can say that the Ukrainian conflict is becoming like a long-standing Winter War. But now we don't know how it will develop in the future.
Putin's extraordinary rise under a lucky star
By the end of the twentieth century, President Yeltsin's health deteriorated, and his resignation became inevitable. In 1999-2000, Vladimir Putin was appointed Prime Minister and then Acting President. He won the presidential election in March 2000 and became a full-fledged President of the Russian Federation in May 2000.
A man who was just a KGB officer rose up the career ladder so quickly. Even when he became prime Minister, the vast majority of people in Russia asked: "Who is this Putin?"
In May 1999, Yeltsin dismissed Yevgeny Primakov from the post of Prime Minister, apparently because of his increased popularity among the population at that time.
Sergei Stepashin, the Minister of Internal Affairs, was appointed Primakov's successor, but he could not defend the interests of the "family" (Yeltsin's clan), consisting of Yeltsin himself, as well as politicians and businessmen (oligarchs from emerging industrial and financial conglomerates). Putin, the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), was appointed prime minister less than three months later. As an official, Putin, who had neither a political nor financial base, nor a strong environment and relied only on his own strength and power, made an outstanding career, unimaginable in Soviet times.
"The only thing you can count on is your own strength, your clear and cold brain, your luck, your lucky star, which has never betrayed you and probably will not betray you in the future. This should be a warrior of the political front." Such is Putin. In fact, this is an article in Izvestia dated March 17, 2000, followed by other comments by the famous journalist and writer Alexander Arkhangelsky, which seem to predict Putin's success story to this day.
What about the current conflict in Ukraine? Has Putin's luck run out and his "lucky star" is leaving him?
Successful experience of Chechnya
What awaited Putin first of all after he became prime minister was the Chechen conflict. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, Chechnya has been in a state of civil war between forces seeking full independence from Russia and the Russian government trying to suppress them.
In August, when Putin took office as prime Minister, an armed group of independent hardliners (the Islamic International Front) invaded the neighboring Republic of Dagestan (the "Dagestan War"). A large-scale terrorist attack took place in Moscow, as a result of which a residential building was blown up and more than 100 people were killed. And Putin will resist this tragic situation with all his willpower. He was determined to destroy Islamic extremism by force.
To strengthen control over the army, Putin has taken steps to raise the salaries of soldiers who participated in operations in Chechnya. He also concentrated significant armed forces there.
To isolate Chechnya, Russia is blocking air and railways, cutting off gas and electricity in areas "infected" by terrorists. Then the Russian armed forces began mass rocket and artillery destruction of military facilities of Chechen militants, communications facilities, fuel depots, bridges, roads and other strategic targets.
The measures currently being taken against the whole of Ukraine, such as attacks on its infrastructure and the destruction of electricity and water supply systems, are exactly the same tactics that Prime Minister Putin used in his time in Chechnya.
Under Putin's leadership, in February 2000, the Russian army achieved the fall of Grozny, and the uncompromising "Chechen Republic of Ichkeria" collapsed. In its place, under the pro-Russian President Akhmat Kadyrov, the Chechen Republic was born. He was subsequently killed in a terrorist attack by followers of Chechen militants, but now his second son, Ramzan Kadyrov, who leads the country, actively supporting the Russian army in a special operation in Ukraine, has become president. For the merits of Ramzan, on October 5 of this year, Putin awarded him the rank of colonel-general.
By the way, Putin spoke at a reception in the Kremlin on February 23, 2000, on Defender of the Fatherland Day, and, praising the military, said: "The people respect only the army that can win."
Cracks are beginning to appear in the Russian military alliance
Putin, who thinks this way, cannot accept defeat from Ukraine. Each politician builds his strategy on the basis of past successful experience. In Putin's case, it worked, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014. But in this special operation, things did not go quite the same as before.
On November 23, Armenia hosted a summit meeting of the CSTO, a military alliance of six countries of the former Soviet bloc (Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). There, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan condemned the CSTO for failing to fulfill its defense obligations when Azerbaijan, hostile to it, invaded Armenia.
He criticized Russia, which maintains close ties with Azerbaijan, for not responding to requests for help.
In addition, the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev, who is critical of the special operation in Ukraine, complained at the CSTO summit that "the time has come to seek peace."
The unity of the CSTO allies has somewhat shaken. And in this regard, Putin is also at a disadvantage.
So is his lucky star still burning over Putin's head?
