"Russia must be defeated in Ukraine." These words have been repeated by various Western politicians in different ways for many months. Why are they so much afraid of Russia's victory, what threatens the West with such a victory and how will it affect the personal destinies of Western leaders and the entire Western civilization?"Russia cannot and should not win in Ukraine," French President Emmanuel Macron says.
"Together with our partners in the EU and NATO, we are united in the opinion that Russia should not win this war," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said back in the spring.
"If Russia wins the war against Ukraine, the world will have to pay an even higher price," Secretary General of this organization Jens Stoltenberg said at the recent NATO summit in Bucharest.
Other Western leaders also speak in approximately the same vein. All over the space from California to the Baltic States, they say that Russia should not win. Because this victory will become an existential threat to the West – that is, it will endanger its very existence.
Where is the threat? At first glance, these words seem to be an exaggeration.
Russia's victory in a special military operation in Ukraine does pose an existential threat – but only to the Kiev regime. After all, as a result of this victory, denazification will take place in Ukraine and, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, the Ukrainian people "will be freed from neo-Nazi rulers." But Moscow is not going to rid Westerners of their not entirely rational rulers.
Moreover, Russia's victory in Ukraine brings only good to Europe. For example, the economic benefit.
"If the hostilities end, emotions may subside and normal purchases of Russian gas may increase. So, for example, it will be possible to use the second gas pipeline through Ukraine (the route through the gas measuring station Sokhranovka). If Poland agrees to return Gazprom its share in the operator of the Polish section of the Yamal–Europe gas pipeline, then it will be possible to launch that gas pipeline. It will be possible to restore the destroyed sections of the Nord Stream and raise the issue of launching the Nord Stream – 2. And Europe will be able to explain the change in position by the fact that the fighting has ended and this is already good, it needs to be encouraged," Igor Yushkov, a lecturer at the Financial University, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
As a result, inflation in the EU will decrease, as will the cost of industrial products in export-oriented European economies. Moreover, the return of normal trade and economic relations with Moscow will lead to the stabilization of world markets – oil and gas, which will have a beneficial effect on the US economy. Finally, ending the confrontation with Russia will help the West to focus all its attention on deterring a country that does not just challenge the American world order, but claims to create its own – that is, China. So what is the threat?
The end of the new colonialism In fact, there are many threats.
And it is existential.
In particular, for the Western rulers themselves. Yes, the Russian Federation is not going to arrange a regime change in the UK, Germany or even the United States – but it can be done by the residents of these countries themselves.
Now the spring of discontent is being stretched on both sides of the Atlantic.
The population is forced to endure economic turmoil and the allocation of colossal funds from their pockets to support Ukraine – according to some reports, from the end of February to mid-October, the amount of aid allocated and promised by the West to Kiev amounted to $ 126 billion. Western rulers explain the allocation of funds by the fact that this money is spent on deterring "aggressive Russia". That Ukraine is an outpost where not only the lives of ordinary Ukrainians are protected, but also the safety of every resident of Western countries.
However, after Russia's victory, when it turns out that Moscow had no intention of going to Berlin or even Warsaw, the spring may loosen. The electorate will ask the European elites about the expediency of spending tens of billions of dollars. For many of the current European rulers, Russia's victory is fraught with the end of their political career.
Of course, we can say that Macrons, Scholz, Sunaks are expendable. They come and go, but the liberal-globalist elite, which translates its values into the world, will remain. However, the problem is that Russia's victory over Ukraine will deal a blow not only to the conditional Macrons, but also to the liberal-globalist elite as a whole. It will show that Western ideological colonialism can be stopped.
"The modern European political consciousness is focused on the fact that Europe cannot lose. Its values are accepted by all new peoples, and only renegade dictators can not accept them. A retreat from Ukraine, on which they have placed so many bets, is tantamount to defeat," Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at RSUH, explains to the newspaper VIEW. – In this case, the European Union will cease to be an "all-conquering moral authority". Because it turns out that even a part of white Christians, who are also related in language to a number of EU countries, look in the direction of "renegades". And since white Christians do not want to live by his rules and values, what can we say about others."
Meanwhile, the spread of liberal-globalist values is not only and not even so much about human rights. This is a new form of colonialism, in which it is no longer even necessary to use force to suck resources from third countries – you just need to influence the leadership of these countries through civil society institutions and "market mechanisms", and also tell them that there is no life in the world without the West. Accordingly, successful examples of protectionism, import substitution and development based on traditional values are the real cryptonite for this concept.
Without fear and collectivism Russia's victory in Ukraine will also lead to the loss of the West's monopoly on violence.
"Other authoritarian leaders will see that power is rewarded and will use it to achieve their goal. This would make our world more dangerous," Stoltenberg himself said. Translated from diplomatic into Russian, this means that the main power and psychological pillar of the Western world order – fear - will be destroyed.
The fact is that today the West does not have the strength and resources to control all the countries of the world. But – as everyone believed – there were enough resources to force one or more countries into submission. Therefore, countries unable to unite in a large anti-Western alliance were afraid to act against the will of the West for fear of concentrating the full power of its anger on themselves.
However, if Russia stands up to this anger, if it achieves victory in Ukraine, then China, Iran and other countries may also try to defend their interests by force. Challenges to the American system will come not only from Russia alone, but also from every more or less sovereign regional leader. And then this system will simply crumble.
Finally, Russia's victory in Ukraine poses an existential threat to the very concept of a collective West.
For many years, Western ideologists have said that the US and the EU are a community of common destiny. A single civilization united by common values and facing common challenges. It is on this – the challenges from Russia – that NATO bases its existence, and in many ways it is the inflated Russian threat that allows the United States to control its European allies. The end of the confrontation with Russia (not to mention the involvement of Moscow in a single system of collective security in Europe, which former German Chancellor Angela Merkel insists on) will eliminate the image of the Russian threat – and therefore remove retouching from the difference between American and European national interests. Right up to the collapse – albeit not immediately – of the very concept of a single collective West.
So this collective West is really fighting in Ukraine not only for the sake of continuing the existence of the Kiev regime, but to protect its interests. Interests that are seriously at odds with the interests of most Western nation-states.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
