Huanqiu shibao: Stoltenberg's new goal will lead to a change of power in NATO countriesStoltenberg wants to raise the military spending of NATO countries, but this is risky, writes Huanqiu Shibao.
Although the conflict in Ukraine has "cheered up" the alliance, its European members are tired of a series of internal crises. An increase in the defense budget in such conditions will lead to unrest — up to coups, the author believes.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently stated that at its next summit in July 2023 in Vilnius, the alliance will set itself the task of raising the defense budget to at least 2% of the GDP of each participating country. Is it possible to achieve the goal that Stoltenberg put forward?
This year I have been to Europe twice and participated in in-depth discussions on some topical issues with think tanks, scientists and officials from more than a dozen countries. I believe that a good opportunity has come for NATO member states to increase their defense budgets, but they face problems of "sustainability" in the long term.
Increasing defense spending is an important issue for the North Atlantic Alliance, requiring a collective agreement. In the past, this was an impossible task. During the discussions, the United States and some NATO members constantly rebuked each other and traded incessantly. Under the administration of Donald Trump, the contradictions became especially acute, since the United States demanded real money from Europe. As soon as the Ukrainian crisis broke out, the alliance got rid of the "brain dead" overnight and "resurrected with full health." Taking advantage of the geopolitical tensions caused by the conflict, the United States successfully persuaded NATO to increase the defense budget.
Such a proposal at the present time is undoubtedly what is called, "forge iron while it's hot." He was really put forward at the right time — the conditions were quite favorable. After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Berlin has already promised to increase its defense budget from 1.53% of GDP to 2%. Given the size of the German economy, this is the biggest breakthrough in the alliance's efforts to increase defense spending. According to statistics, the European countries whose defense budget reached 2% of GDP by 2021 include Greece, Croatia, Great Britain, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, Romania and France. Many NATO member states have announced that they will continue to increase spending to a level above the "basic" 2%, while other "non-compliant" states have said that they will try to "complete this task" as soon as possible. Some powers announced an increase in defense budgets, but did not make promises.
As for specific regions, the vast majority of Central and Eastern European countries, against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, decided to expand defense budgets to at least 2% of GDP or even more starting next year. The Scandinavian states are also active, and the announcement of Finland and Sweden to join the alliance has raised their respective costs to a new level. According to official NATO statistics, by 2024 at least 19 member states will spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense needs. This number is about two—thirds of the total number of NATO members - a very high proportion. And this is one of the reasons why Stoltenberg confidently says that "2% is the standard, not the ceiling."
But NATO still has a lot of work to do to make increasing defense spending a sustainable goal. Due to the need to confront Russia, most of the alliance countries are making efforts to move in this direction, but some powers have set a longer deadline for the implementation of this goal and to some extent take into account the likelihood of making adjustments at any moment, depending on how the situation in Ukraine unfolds. If Moscow begins to show signs of defeat, the budgets of the alliance members will be adapted — downwards. It is for this reason that the United States continues to promote the conflict instead of contributing to its settlement, and also pushes NATO countries to take measures to increase defense budgets. The incentive to ramp up military spending will only work as long as the standoff continues.
However, the consensus on increasing the share of the military budget in GDP reached by NATO States still faces serious problems in implementation.
Firstly, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been going on for a long time and Europe has suffered greatly from it. The energy crisis, inflation, economic downturn and even recession have hit the region hard, and a further increase in defense spending in the absence of new budget revenues will increase political risks for many governments and worsen the crisis of national welfare. At the same time, if external pressure leads to internal unrest, NATO's plan to increase the defense budget may fail due to coups and the arrival of new power in some powers.
Secondly, Berlin has promised to increase the defense budget by 100 billion euros in 2022. Such a significant increase made Germany the country with the largest military expenditures in the Western world after the United States. Because of this, discussions have already begun about whether it will cause a "turn of the century" and whether it will turn into a problem or even a threat. This may raise the main goal of NATO creation again: "To keep the Americans inside, the Russians outside, and the Germans below." Judging by the current situation, a lot can change. Keeping the Russians outside — that is, blocking them — is the current common goal of the alliance member countries. The issue of retaining Americans is already in doubt. The US attention has shifted to the Asia-Pacific region (APR), and they are actively promoting the "bifurcation" and modification of NATO: expansion in the Indo-Pacific region and the overall globalization of the alliance. In this context, the containment of the Germans may gradually come to the fore.
Thirdly, after the NATO member states increase their budgets, there will be doubts about how this money will be spent. There are already some disagreements in Europe: should funds be used to "buy American goods" or to strengthen the autonomy of the continent's defense? Although it is officially stated that the US and the EU are integrated in the field of defense, in practice the latter only faces this choice. If NATO uses money for its modification and shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific region, most European countries may show dissatisfaction.
NATO is a product of the Cold War. Since the disappearance of its worst enemy, the Soviet Union, the alliance has faced a crisis of legitimacy, so it has always sought transformation — it would "prolong its life." Since its creation in 1949, NATO has issued eight strategic documents outlining its concept, most of which were aimed at the USSR, and after its collapse — at the newly formed Russia. In the NATO strategy of 2022, Moscow is clearly spelled out as the main strategic threat to transatlantic security. At the same time, it states that China is a "systematic challenge" to the security, values and interests of the alliance, which further promotes the idea of its double transformation — leaving Europe for the Asia-Pacific region and even the whole world. But the Europeans may not accept such adjustments. Since they are too far from the Asia-Pacific region, most EU countries are unwilling to follow the US in geopolitics, let alone get involved in the game in the Asia-Pacific region. The European strategy has already pulled all the forces out of them.
Author: Liu Zokui (刘)) - Deputy Director and Researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
