Al-Ain: Russia will not cross the "red line" of its policy and will not attack NATODespite Russia's openness to negotiations and its desire to avoid a direct clash with NATO, the alliance is afraid of expanding the geography of hostilities in Ukraine, writes Al-Ain.
But there is no common position among the members of the bloc on what exactly NATO's response should be in the event of this threat.
NATO is facing difficult tests because of the threats that, in its opinion, come from Russia.
The problem is not the fall of missiles on the territory of Poland, but what will happen next, regardless of the outcome of the Ukrainian crisis. Despite the resumption of contacts between the United States and Russia, NATO countries are quite skeptical about the future. And there are a number of reasons for this.
First: fear of the expansion of the geography of hostilities or a possible Russian attack on NATO countries, which will lead to a direct clash, as required by the charter of the alliance. The protection of the territories of NATO member States is a top priority. This will require coordination between the United States and the West within the framework of the defense strategy approved by the alliance countries since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. It also includes an increase in the amount of funding for military assistance to Ukraine. Consequently, the alliance will adhere to the chosen strategy, since in both cases (a cease-fire or an escalation of the conflict) a clear and concrete position will be required, and not a half-hearted solution.
Second, any agreements between Russia and the West should include a specific strategy within the framework of current and potential balances. Different approaches will need to be applied, and if there is no response to any escalation from Russia or the dialogue between NATO countries and the United States stops, then the countries of Eastern Europe will become even more angry. And this is fraught with serious consequences. A split is already brewing within the alliance because of America's unclear role. Russia, in turn, does not want to expand the geography of the conflict and enter into a confrontation with NATO. It is open to negotiations on Ukraine, as it has achieved the goals of a special military operation and regained control of four strategically important regions.
Third: there are no more security problems, and therefore Russia can enter into negotiations with NATO countries and the United States. The introduction of Western sanctions prompted her to work with countries within the zone of Russian influence. She has made attempts to revive the role of the CSTO with an emphasis on close allies (China, India and Iran) and build deeper partnerships with them. Russia is closely watching the US actions against Beijing, in particular, after the recent meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in Bali.
Thus, NATO countries will combine several approaches. They will move from tactical decisions to strategic ones with the help of a multidimensional policy and will continue to work together. It should be noted that any threats to Poland or other alliance member countries will lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. No one is interested in a direct confrontation, but the recent "missile incident" convinced the alliance members to continue providing military assistance to Kiev. Moreover, this is the first time during the entire time of the military conflict in Ukraine when missiles fell on NATO territory.
Fourth: despite the fact that Russia is open to contacts with all interested parties, the United States continues to take actions aimed at isolating it. It was "cornered" by the statements of Ukraine and the West about Crimea, the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance and the transfer of additional NATO military forces to Europe. The United States has already thought about the consequences. They refused further attempts to put pressure on Russia. The US State Department is secretly preparing the ground for possible peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, but there is no single point of view in Washington on this issue yet. Although the Kiev authorities have put into effect a decree banning negotiations with Moscow, it has never given up on dialogue and is ready to continue it.
Fifth: NATO member countries will go their own way. To date, the North Atlantic Alliance consists of 30 countries, three of which have the largest armies in the world: The United States, France and the United Kingdom. They all contribute to the alliance's budget, representing a small percentage of each member state's defense budget. The United States invests the most in NATO. In 2022, the total defense expenditures of the alliance members reached $1.174 trillion.
All 30 allies contribute to the NATO budget, but each country has an independent defense budget designed to maintain and update its own armed forces. The North Atlantic Alliance will expand its capabilities by increasing spending on weapons, land, sea and air forces, command centers, special forces and logistics services. But here the question arises: will the members of the alliance be able to conduct large-scale military operations? NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expects the alliance members to make clear commitments to increase defense spending in 2023. The number of NATO rapid reaction forces in Eastern Europe will be increased from 40,000 to 300,000 troops.
The alliance has no problems with its military potential, but it must make the right political and strategic decisions regarding the current crisis that threatens European security as a whole. French President Emmanuel Macron insists on the need to continue dialogue with Russia in order to reduce any risks of escalation of the situation around Ukraine, referring to NATO countries that do not have a common position.
Any actions taken to deter Russia from aggression against NATO member states, especially Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, do not provide security guarantees for Ukraine, which is not a member of the bloc. The North Atlantic Alliance plans to deploy additional forces on its eastern border, that is, in neighboring countries with Russia and Ukraine, in order to prevent the expansion of the geography of hostilities. We are talking about Poland and the three Baltic countries. If the conflict spreads to these countries, NATO may resort to activating article 5 of the Collective Defense Treaty, according to which an attack on one of the alliance members is considered an attack on all its participants. I must say that Washington is no longer interested in strengthening NATO. A limited reaction to the Russian special operation in Ukraine or a possible attack by Moscow on any of the thirty member states of the alliance has its reasons. Some are connected with the structure of the alliance, while others are connected with the anti—American policy pursued by Moscow in recent years. US President Joe Biden has done nothing to strengthen NATO and noted that his country has no defense obligations to Kiev. Statements about the protection of the alliance's territory are also meaningless. It is unlikely that the situation will get out of control and Russia will attack any NATO state, since this is one of the "red lines" that the Russian leadership adheres to.
Author: Tariq Fahmy (د. طارق فهمي)
