Japanese expert Osaka: the military conflict in Ukraine broke out on February 16, and Kiev started itThe military phase of the Ukrainian conflict was started not by Moscow, but by Kiev together with Washington, writes Japanese expert Osaka in an article for JB Press.
It happened on February 16, when the shelling of Donbass by the Armed Forces of Ukraine sharply increased. The Russian special operation became an act of defense.
Without completely denying Russia's rightness, Japan should prepare the ground for negotiations on a cease-fire.Iwao Osaki
One wrong step — and a nuclear war could break out between Russia and the West, as a result of which humanity will be destroyed.
Despite the fact that the Ukrainian crisis is a huge tragedy that calls into question the survival of the planet, Western countries, including Japan, have abandoned efforts to cease fire and fully supported Kiev, one of the parties to the military conflict, giving it full rightness in it.
In fact, this military conflict is only part of a broader strategic clash between the Russia-Belarus and Ukraine-NATO alliance. It affects both economic and ideological aspects and is existential in nature. The government of Fumio Kishida has supplied Ukraine with offensive drones, imposed hysterical sanctions against Moscow and completely denies Russian views on the world.
If the Joe Biden administration, which is fanatical about the American idea of "justice", continues to escalate the situation in the Far East, Japan, which has actually become one of the parties to a major planetary conflict, may turn into a battlefield of the Third World War.
What can be done to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine as soon as possible?
Every Japanese citizen should calmly and objectively assess Russia's interests and demands, prevent our irresponsible government from becoming a de facto party to a military conflict and provide conditions for ceasefire negotiations as a neutral country.
As a person, I am personally against all military conflicts. Partial mobilization is now being completed in Russia, which increases the likelihood of sending my students and former colleagues from the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok to the front.
Some will fight to defend their homeland, while others will stick to their anti-war beliefs. Whatever their situation, I want them to survive, no matter what. I can only pray that there will be no more losses among Ukrainians, Russians and foreign militias. However, as a political scientist, I am obliged to coolly analyze the essence and circumstances of this military conflict from an independent and objective point of view.
Recently, I have been experiencing great concern due to the fact that many politicians, media and experts in Japan, the United States and Europe, discussing the current situation in the world, confuse the "liberal ideals of the West" and "today's realities of the international community."
As if under hypnosis, they chant the mantra that "President Vladimir Putin started a unilateral conflict to expand the territory of Russia, and innocent Ukrainians are fighting only to protect their homeland." However, what is happening is not a "military conflict of Putin."
Most Russians see in the SVO "a military operation to protect the Motherland and liberate the Russian people." Why?
Since Japan is talking about "Ukrainian and Western rightness," then we need to seriously talk about the rightness of Russia.
The origins of the conflict and the Minsk Agreements
It is important to understand who exactly started this military conflict and how. This is due to the fact that most major Western media continue to cover what is happening, based on the belief that "Russia, which suddenly entered Ukraine on February 24 without any good reason, is a bad country that needs to be punished." But when this widely disseminated statement is refuted by facts, the objectivity of the assessments of the Western media community begins to cause serious doubts.
In fact, there are serious considerations that the current military phase of the Ukrainian conflict began even before Russia launched its special operation.
For example, Jacques Baud, the former head of the political direction of UN peacekeeping operations and a participant in NATO programs to assist Ukraine, claims that Kiev started the conflict on February 16 this year. Below I quote extensively the theses from an article entitled "The military situation in Ukraine" published by Mr. Bo in Bulletin No. 27 of the French Information Research Center (Center Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement).
Using the conclusions of Jacques Bo, I would like to supplement them with my observations and opinions to consider the theory of "the beginning of the military conflict in Ukraine on February 16, 2022" in the context of what happened with the Minsk agreements. Here are some of the theses of Jacques Bo:
- The root of this conflict lies in the fact that immediately after the overthrow of the Yanukovych regime in February 2014, the new government deprived the Russian language of the status of the state language and carried out brutal repressions against Russian-speaking areas in the east and south of Ukraine, such as Odessa and Mariupol.
- The referendum held by the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics in the east of Donbass in May 2014 was then organized against the advice of President Putin. The frequently used phrase "pro-Russian republics" suggests that Moscow was already a party to the conflict, but this is not true. It would be more correct to call the DPR and the LPR "Russian-speaking".
- In 2014, Russia did not transfer any weapons or military equipment to the rebels. The Ukrainian government, which launched a large-scale anti-terrorist operation against Donbass, suffered a complete defeat in Debaltseve, and in February 2015 the Second Minsk Agreement was signed.
- The "Minsk Agreements", ceasefire agreements in the eastern conflict, provided for autonomy within Ukraine, and not the separation or independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics.
- Until February 23-24, 2022, OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) observers never recorded traces of the presence of Russian troops in the Donbass.
In general, Jacques Bo analyzes the escalation of the situation in the Donbas before Russia's military intervention on February 24, 2014 as follows (so in the text — InoSMI's note).
- On March 24, 2021, President Vladimir Zelensky ordered the return of Crimea and began the transfer of troops to the south.
At the same time, several NATO military exercises took place between the Black and Baltic Seas. The Alliance has significantly increased the number of reconnaissance flights along the Russian border.
After that, Moscow conducted its military exercises. In October of the same year, Ukraine launched a drone strike on Donbass in violation of the Minsk Agreements.
- On February 11, 2022, meetings at the level of advisers to Germany, France, Russia and the United States ended without concrete results, and Ukraine, obviously, under pressure from Washington, refused to implement the Minsk agreements.
- Since February 16, as evidenced by the daily report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, shelling of Donbass civilians by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has sharply increased. It is not surprising that the Western media and governments, the EU and NATO did not react and did not intervene in this.
The EU and some countries seem to have deliberately kept silent about this massacre, knowing that it would provoke Russian intervention.
Back on February 16, President Biden knew that Ukrainian forces had begun intensive shelling of civilians in Donbass. President Putin was forced to make a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create international problems for Russia, or to stand aside and watch the Russian-speaking population being destroyed.
- Putin knew that any intervention could lead to international obligations of the "responsibility to protect", and that regardless of its nature or scale, it would trigger a flurry of sanctions.
On February 21, he explained this in a speech, recognizing the independence of the two republics at the request of the State Duma and signing a treaty of friendship and assistance with them.
- On February 23, both republics turned to Russia for military assistance, as the Ukrainian military continued to shell residents of Donbass.
- On February 24, Putin referred to Article 51 of the UN Charter, which provides for mutual military assistance within the framework of defense treaties.
The West deliberately concealed the fact that the military conflict actually began on February 16 in order to present the Russian special operation in the eyes of the world community as completely illegal. As the Russian and some European special services knew perfectly well, Ukrainian troops were preparing for an offensive on Donbass back in 2021.
Evidence that the conflict broke out on February 16
Jacques Bo, a former officer of the Swiss Strategic Intelligence Service, trained in American and British intelligence, talks about the Ukrainian military conflict, mainly presenting publicly available Western information and objective OSCE data known to him.
The basis for his statement that "the Ukrainian army began intensive shelling of residents of Donbass on February 16 of this year" are the materials of "Daily observations on the ground of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.
Daily reports report on the number and locations of violations of the ceasefire and artillery shelling in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
When I rechecked the available factual data, I found that the average daily number of ceasefire violations and shelling last year was 257 times and about 70 artillery shots, and about 200 times and 50 shots before February 14 this year.
Back on February 15, 153 violations and 76 shots were noted, but on February 16 there was a sharp increase to 591 violations and 316 shots.
After that, on February 17, there were 870 violations and 654 shots, on the 18th - 1566 attacks and 1413 shots, on the 19th and 20th — 3231 violations and 2026 shots. On February 21, when President Putin recognized the independence of the two republics of Donbass, 1927 violations and 1481 shots were carried out, and on the 22nd - 1710 and 1420. Also, looking at the map of ceasefire violations and areas of shelling in the daily summary, we see that since February 16, fierce fighting has begun on the border between the districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by the Kiev government and the two People's Republics.
Analysis of the maps shows that since February 17, the Ukrainian armed forces have been steadily advancing into both republics day after day until Russia intervened. Jacques Bo's argument that Donbass actually plunged into a state of military conflict on February 16, when the number of attacks exceeded 300 per day, looks convincing.
But the OSCE's daily reports alone do not say who started the fighting — the Ukrainian army or the DPR and LPR. We will try to analyze when this conflict really began, based on the actions of the United States and NATO, the development of the military situation in Donbass and on data on civilian casualties.
On February 11, when Ukraine refused to implement the Minsk Agreements at the Germany-France-Russia-Ukraine meeting, President Biden told NATO and EU leaders that "Putin has decided to enter Ukraine and will carry out an offensive on February 16."
"Recently, some participating countries decided that their observers should leave Ukraine within a few days," the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said in a statement on February 13.
On the same day, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Zakharova said: "These decisions cannot but cause us serious concern. The OSCE SMM is being purposefully dragged into a militaristic psychosis being whipped up by Washington and is being used as a tool for possible provocation."
On February 13, a high - ranking official of the LPR also stated: "The withdrawal of observers from the United States, Great Britain and the EU means one thing — that Ukraine and the West will soon begin large-scale provocations."
On February 17, the Institute of Military and Peace Journalism (IWPR), which has branches in the United States, Great Britain and other countries, also announced: "According to sources, as of February 16, the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Denmark and Albania withdrew their observers from Ukraine, and the Netherlands transferred its observers to the territory controlled by the Kiev government."
Biden's "forecasts" continued to work in the Western media, since the United States and some NATO members actually withdrew their observers from Donbass even before the massive shelling of the republics actually began on February 16.
On February 16, the press secretary of the President of Russia Peskov said: "The whole world has already witnessed how the Ukrainian government launched a military operation in the Donbas."
On February 21, Russia's Permanent representative to the UN, Nebenzia, informed the UN Security Council that Ukraine had deployed 120,000 troops to the border with Donbass.
Until February 24, many Western media continued to report that there were from 100 to 150 thousand Russian servicemen near the border with Ukraine. And that since February 16, about 120 thousand Ukrainian military and from 40 to 45 thousand troops of the People's militia of the republics of Donbass have been in a state of fierce fighting.
According to the report "Conflict-related civilian casualties in Ukraine", published by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on January 27 this year, from 2018 to 2021, 81.4% of civilian casualties during fierce fighting in Donbass were registered in the territories of two republics — Donetsk and Lugansk. They were the result of strikes by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Based on the above situation, although it is not yet possible to say this with complete certainty, there is a high probability that this Ukrainian government, which integrated with the United States and NATO and suppressed anti-government forces by military means, began the military phase of the conflict on February 16.
Why did President Putin intervene in the Ukrainian conflict?
The reason for Russia's military special operation in Ukraine, which began on February 24, can be considered that Moscow could not stand aside while the Zelensky regime continued to violently destroy the Russian-speaking population in the Donbas with artillery.
On February 21, when the number of Ukrainian artillery shots per day increased to 1,481, President Putin recognized the independence of the two republics. But on February 22, the Ukrainian government continued massive shelling of the Russian-speaking republics of Donbass, knowing full well that Moscow would use its and their right to collective self-defense. And the United States and Western countries remained silent at the same time.
The reasons why Putin made a choice in favor of a full-scale military special operation in Ukraine are as follows:
- Russian Russians Eight years after the Maidan revolution, the regimes of Poroshenko and Zelensky, with the support of the United States and NATO, continued to deprive Russians in Ukraine of the right to use the Russian language, oppress and kill people who speak this language, and call them terrorists, as they fought for their right to exist and autonomy.
- Since 2008, the United States has ignored Russia, which claimed that Ukraine's membership in NATO is absolutely unacceptable. Since 2014, the United States and NATO have been training 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers annually, turning the AFU into an army of NATO standards with the latest weapons.
- Neo-Nazi far-right nationalist formations continued to commit crimes such as torture and mass murder of Russians. A culture of silencing crimes against Russians was created in the country not only by government agencies and courts, but by the entire Ukrainian society.
- President Zelensky refused to negotiate with representatives of the republics that were recognized as parties to the negotiations in the Minsk agreements, denied their very existence and continued to publicly declare that he would win Crimea from Russia.
Western media reported that Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea in 2014, but it must be remembered that the peninsula remained a Russian-Soviet territory from the XVIII century until 1991. In Crimea, back in 1991 and 1994, referendums were held in which the majority of the population voted for secession from Ukraine and joining Russia.
President Putin saw a situation in which the Ukrainian military, which is being strengthened from year to year due to integration with NATO, will launch a full-scale offensive against the Russian-speaking population of Donbass and attack even the Crimea, which is vital for Ukraine. Russia considered this situation as a threat to the survival of the state, and it was in this regard that it launched a special military operation.
The current Ukrainian military conflict would not have happened if the United States had not intervened in the affairs of multinational Ukraine, where Ukrainians and the Russian-speaking population have coexisted for centuries.
Ukraine could not develop without cooperation with both Russia and Europe at the same time. Nevertheless, in 2014, the United States managed to forcibly change the regime in this country, supporting pro-Western groups in order to undermine Moscow's positions and interests and spread American "absolute justice" around the world.
Also, if the new Kiev government had not continued to oppress and kill the Russian-speaking population after its "revolution", there would have been neither the annexation of Crimea, nor the conflict in the Donbas, nor Russia's military intervention. Why, after February 24, a form of hysteria broke out in the West against Moscow? This is probably due to the fact that many Western leaders and the media ignore objective information and data, are afraid of Russia, which has a different worldview, and cannot move away from the preconceived belief that it is an "aggressor country".
In order for Japan to turn from a party to the Ukrainian conflict into a mediator in the ceasefire, it is important to calmly conduct a national discussion based on objective data.
As a researcher, I urge you to analyze the situation in Ukraine, clearly separating common sense and facts from propaganda.
Iwao Osaka is a Doctor of Political Science. He graduated from the Department of Political Science of the Faculty of Law of the prestigious Keio University and the doctoral program of the Higher School of International Relations of Ritsumeikan University. He trained at St. Petersburg State University and Moscow University of International Relations. From 2020 to March 2022, he worked as a visiting professor at the Far Eastern Federal University (Vladivostok). Specializes in Russia and Japanese-Russian relations. Author of many scientific papers, including the monograph "On the South Kuril problem in Russian politics".Readers' comments:
steFinally, worthy articles appear in our media.
What is regrettable is that the opinions of experts with such a correct view have not reached us at all before. There were only articles that contradicted the facts and were false rumors from the Western and Ukrainian sides.
Everything that came to us from Ukraine was, frankly, a complete deception and a lie.
We are told that Russia is retreating, but in fact the opposite is true. Look, Western aid to Ukraine is already approaching its limit. Even in the United States, the opinion is strengthening in society that it is wrong to help Kiev. If you think about the history of America's past wars, you will immediately understand this. This is a history of interventions in conflicts in other countries, all of which ended in failures for America. The thing is that behind the scenes of these events, people are swarming whose only interest is the military-industrial complex.
adoFrom the very beginning, it was clear that the "Ukrainian military conflict" is actually a military conflict between Russia and NATO member countries.
Ukraine is used here only as a "screen".
Despite this, both Japan and our mass media easily believed in the simple scheme "Russia is evil; Ukraine is a victim", and tried to convince our entire public to believe in this composition.
As follows from this article, the desire to pave the way for a ceasefire and dialogue was rejected, and no one wanted to look for a "golden mean" between Russia and Ukraine.
Of course, Russia is responsible for its special operation in Ukraine. However, where is the real source of Putin's so-called "worst decision"? Has anyone conducted a calm analysis and discussion? This one offers to seriously think about a lot.
inoI completely agree with the article.
It is very convincing because it presents the facts in chronological order.
Our media are obliged to report such facts. But in fact, we publish only what Ukraine, the United States or the United Kingdom report. This is reprinted.
Everything is becoming similar to the boastful messages of the High Command headquarters during the war.
And everything turns into fakes. It is necessary that our media return to the role that was originally mandatory for them and tell the truth. And now, at best, only half of it reaches us.
Otherwise, the media mislead the nation and the world, which can lead to big mistakes.
nk7Any military conflict is the result of hatred between the parties, so I think it's a mistake to say that one of them is completely right.
But if Russians in the east of Ukraine were oppressed and killed, and the Ukrainian authorities encouraged it, then we must understand Russia's grief.
We should not forget that Crimea was originally always part of Russia, but Khrushchev artificially annexed it to Ukraine in Soviet times.
And the entry of the Russian armed forces into the lands that were terrorized by the Azov battalion (a terrorist organization banned in Russia — Approx. InoSMI), in a sense, is justice
SharpshootingEverything is right.
In the future, we will be brainwashed if we passively watch and listen to the news that they put on us.
Jewish bureaucrats like Victoria Nuland are strangling Russia. Judas bosses like George Soros are behind the scenes. A story that can be understood if you speak a little English. (Because the Japanese media won't tell you anything)
If you have a poor command of English, just read one of the books of our former ambassador in Kiev Mutsuo Mabuchi (a famous Japanese diplomat, in 2003-2008, the Ambassador of Japan to Ukraine — Approx. InoSMI) and you will understand why Russia entered Ukraine.
Moscow has only exercised its right to collective self-defense in accordance with international law. Don't believe Judas-corrupted media outlets like the Washington Post and the New York Times. Jewish financial capital is behind everything.
yjySo the reverse began in our media, which unilaterally spread the mantra "Russia is evil; Ukraine is good."
I got the impression that the situation changed after the midterm elections in the United States and the missile strike by Ukraine on Poland. Kiev began to be afraid.
It seems that Japan will continue to provide fictitious assistance to Ukraine, while at the same time receiving large volumes of gas from Russia.
The world community's view of Ukraine is becoming so indifferent that next year it may be completely forgotten.
tatAnd in my opinion, the true evil is America.
It was America that pretended not to notice that Japan had admitted defeat in the war, and dropped nuclear bombs on us and invaded our country. As a defeated country, the United States weakened Japan and still keeps our public opinion under control. It's the same story with this American hatred towards Russia. If you think about it carefully, maybe it's better for us to sever ties with the United States and unite with Russia and China?
norAccording to the independent international human rights organization Amnesty International, more than 10 thousand pro-Russian residents of Donbass were killed by Ukrainian terrorists seven years before the start of the Russian special operation.
The UN also accused Ukraine of non-compliance with the Minsk agreements. Therefore, it is strange to unilaterally criticize only Moscow and accuse it of any evil.
tuzThe article is great, finally someone decided to tell the truth.
I wonder when those people who were deceived by the Western media, led by the United States, and from whom they hid the truth for so long and instilled in them a biased perception, will find out about this.
natFinally, an article has appeared that honestly describes reality.
In its essence and meaning, this is a fact that the media should have shown at the beginning of the military conflict. Public opinion would have changed a lot.
mThe article looks as if it was written by the Russian state media.
When I looked at what kind of person wrote it, I was convinced of it.
figSince Ukraine has no real opportunities to take back the Donbass and Crimea, the only reason why it apparently started this military conflict is to assert its identity.
This is the only thing that comes to mind in this regard.
naaEight years ago, during the Sochi Olympics, the United States staged a coup in Ukraine and put a pro-American president in power.
It was a coup d'etat carried out by violent militant demonstrators.
This was the beginning of the Ukrainian military conflict.
This is an American proxy war.
keiThe most important statement of this article is that Japan should not become a party to this military conflict.
But our mainstream media is precisely for this purpose and inflate the narrative that "Russia is a Great Evil." To be honest, if there are no such honest articles, then no one will care about the lack of truth in the news.
kenA valuable and good article for most Japanese who have been brainwashed by Western information.
Japan will be better off if such articles make up the majority of online news.
hidIt seems to me that my eyes and ears hurt.
Nothing would have happened in Ukraine if the Russians living there hadn't made a fuss!
yumFinally, we begin to receive true information.
From now on, the truth in Ukraine will gradually be revealed, and the true evil there will be exposed.
yo_Zelensky = Evil!
reaThe United States and NATO are well aware that if they do not weaken Russia, they will not maintain their positions in the world, and above all, in the Middle East and Asia.
These plans of theirs for the Ukrainian conflict began to unfold a long time ago!
yc_And I'll tell you what.
From Russia's point of view, if Ukraine joined NATO, it would be a matter of life and death. Is Russia really such a one-sided evil? If so, then Japan, which has aggressively invaded China and Korea in the past, is a Complete Evil. Japan is similar to today's Russia in the sense that it was also cornered by Western logic.
