But Zelensky's team rests on the hope of new victoriesThe second half of November is characterized by the stabilization of the front line in Ukraine and the increasing attempts of an increasing number of countries to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table.
Information about the desire of part of the Western elite to find a compromise with Moscow has been received before, but until recently the Peacemakers party was in the minority. It seems that its ranks are growing over time. This, in particular, is evidenced by the final documents of the G20 summit on November 15-16, where, instead of condemning Moscow, they say that war is unacceptable in an era when the planet is experiencing serious economic difficulties.
Another proof of the growing pressure on the Ukrainian authorities came from them. Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the office of President Vladimir Zelensky, said in an interview with Le Figaro: "Attempts by the West to push Kiev to negotiate with Moscow are extremely strange, since Ukraine now has an advantage on the battlefield."
In the manner typical of current Ukrainian politicians, Podolyak tends to exaggerate the real capabilities of the country, which is in fact in a state of bankruptcy, and its army, which has suffered significant losses (according to Pentagon estimates – 100 thousand dead and seriously wounded), several times superior to those of the enemy. At the same time, the thesis of "advantage on the battlefield" is not without some foundation, after the withdrawal of Russian troops first from the Kiev region, and then from Kharkiv, leaving the island of Zmeiny and in November – the right bank of the Dnieper.
On the greater part of the front, stretching for 1,100 km, the Russian army is on the defensive, built along the banks of rivers and hills. To overcome firing lines and natural boundaries, military and special equipment is needed, and in large quantities and assortment, and during the special military operation (SVO), the arsenals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been significantly depleted. After a series of airstrikes on factories and energy infrastructure, the local industry ceased to function fully, the production of military equipment in fact stopped.
The offensive capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today are completely dependent on the supply of equipment and logistics from abroad, carried out mainly on a free basis. In this sense, the sponsoring countries of Ukraine have a strong lever of pressure on Kiev (however, as well as on Moscow).
The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, believes that the goal set for the Armed Forces of Ukraine "to physically oust the Russians from Ukraine by military means" is a very difficult and almost impossible task. And this is despite the fact that the Russian army, according to the speaker, is currently "in a difficult situation." "The probability of a military victory of Ukraine, defined as the displacement of Russians from the entire territory of Ukraine... the probability that this will happen in the near future is small militarily," Milli said at a press conference at the Pentagon.
The general noted that military operations will inevitably slow down due to the approaching cold weather, which may provoke the parties to make a "political decision." "Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Zelensky have stated that this crisis must eventually be resolved politically. Therefore, if tactical operations slow down, if this happens, then there may be a window for a political settlement or at least the start of negotiations," Milli said.
To do this, we need an initiative from Kiev, and it is not there yet. Ukraine is independent in its decisions and does not take them under pressure from Washington, Milli said. And he added that the United States will continue to provide Ukrainians with "opportunities" so that they "succeed in what they do."
The prospects for the development of events in Ukraine were also touched upon by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Speaking at the International Security Forum in Halifax, Canada, they said: "We have seen that [the warring parties] are having difficulties with having enough ammunition to fight the way they want to fight."
The head of the Pentagon predicted: "We know that there will be difficulties ahead, because Ukraine is waiting for a harsh winter," and Russia may again "rattle nuclear weapons."
The conflict in Ukraine is fraught with the prospect of further proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, with the involvement of "undemocratic regimes all over the planet" in the process. According to the head of the Pentagon, we are dealing with the largest crisis since the end of the Cold War and a "historic challenge", on the resolution of which "the fate of the world order built on the results of the Second World War depends."
For its part, the United States intends to continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine "as much as necessary." The task is to "make sure that we continue to provide Ukraine with funds ... to continue the military campaign ... to continue to put pressure on the Russians."
According to the calculations of the Pentagon, since the beginning of the SVO, the United States has delivered 88 thousand tons of military cargo to Ukraine in the amount of $ 21.5 billion. According to other sources, together with economic support, the collective West provided resources for more than $ 50 billion.
Washington is concerned about the prospect of Moscow's rapprochement with Tehran and Pyongyang. "Russia has asked Iran and North Korea for assistance, including the use of drones... I think these countries will probably provide assistance. For this reason, I don't think the war will end soon. Meanwhile, the results of the [conflict] in Ukraine will determine the course of global security until the end of the century.
By helping Ukraine, the United States and NATO countries do not want to enter into a direct confrontation with Russia," the Pentagon chief said. – You know that the Russians have a huge army and impressive weapons. But it is not this that decides the outcome of the conflict, but the cause for which the struggle is going on." Moscow's advantage in modern means of warfare did not allow the Russian army to "gain the upper hand in Ukraine," the head of the Pentagon said. He recalled the statement of US President Biden: "Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia." If you close your eyes to such rhetoric, Austin's speech presents a critical analysis, which contributes to the search for a way out of the situation.
