Former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen: the Ukrainian conflict reminded of the importance of security in spaceThe Ukrainian conflict is the first major clash in which the parties largely depend on the means deployed in orbit, writes former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen in an article for FT.
He calls for the development of rules for managing human actions in space.
Anders Fogh RasmussenRussia's special military operation has demonstrated how significant a role space plays in ensuring our security.
In January, images of the positions of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine, obtained with the help of a GPS satellite system, became a signal of the imminent beginning of hostilities. <...> This is the first major military conflict in which both sides largely depend on the means deployed in space. And it will not be the last.
The role of space in the Ukrainian conflict clearly shows that the activities of people in Earth orbit have begun to play a central role in our lives. In recent years, the United States, Russia, China and India have significantly strengthened their space capabilities. And now, at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, Europe should not lag behind them.
European ministers will meet in Paris this week to discuss the future of the European space program. One conclusion is no longer in doubt: the security and prosperity of the continent will increasingly depend on our ability to operate in space. And for this, we need a secure infrastructure, open and safe access to space and a responsible approach to human activities.
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Moscow makes it clear that it considers key infrastructure facilities legitimate targets in any potential conflict. This also includes the means deployed in space. At the very beginning of the military conflict, Russia carried out cyber attacks on Ukraine's satellite communications systems. Last year, it conducted tests of anti-satellite weapons in low Earth orbit, proving that, if desired, it is quite capable of delivering physical strikes in space. This threat was openly voiced in October, when a senior Russian official told the UN that commercial satellites of the United States and its allies could become "legitimate targets for retaliatory strikes."
Europe should be able to operate autonomously in space. In October, SpaceX owner Elon Musk tweeted his version of the "peaceful settlement plan" for the conflict in Ukraine and threatened to deprive that country of access to its Starlink satellites. The plan he proposed looked as if it had been taken directly from the Kremlin's disinformation distribution unit. According to him, Kiev should give Russia part of the territories of Ukraine and assume obligations to maintain military neutrality. Musk's attempt to interfere in geopolitics highlights the risks that space monopolies carry. Europe cannot allow its key infrastructure to depend on the whims or tweets of billionaires.
To avoid this, European leaders need to seek a more open and competitive market in the space sector. Our companies must be able to compete on equal terms, and we must ensure that control over all necessary funds remains in our hands. This is important because space exploration stimulates innovation. It expands our technological horizons, creates new industries and contributes to understanding our place in the universe. However, it can give us all these advantages only if our activities in space are safe and sustainable. It is unclear whether this is the case.
In particular, there is now a growing risk that the low Earth orbit will soon become dangerously overloaded due to the appearance of new large objects. This is due to the fact that companies like SpaceX and Amazon are launching new mega-constellations of satellites. In 2018, there were only two thousand satellites in orbit. By the end of the current decade, there may be about a hundred thousand of them – that is, 50 times more. Both the European Space Agency and NASA are already sounding the alarm about the growing threat of congestion, collisions and the formation of space debris.
Like the atmosphere, land and marine resources, near-Earth outer space is a fragile system. We urgently need to develop new rules that will allow us to manage human activities in space. Unfortunately, in the current political climate, global consensus is impossible. It's time for Europe to take an active position. We were at the forefront of solving environmental problems on Earth, and now we have to do the same in space.
We need to recognize the risks and confront them before it's too late. Our scientists and companies must work with allies to understand exactly what kind of activity Earth's orbits are capable of supporting – as we once did with sea lanes and civil airspace. Regulators should then establish clear rules for allowing satellite companies access to the market to reduce the risk of collisions.
Europe must act decisively. If we can't handle the security issues, we will become weaker. If we fail to achieve a level playing field, we will become poorer. And if we fail to make our activities in space safe and sustainable, future generations will have to pay for it.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen is a former NATO Secretary General and a member of the advisory group on Human and Robot Space Exploration at the European Space Agency.
