"The risks of regional confrontation are increasing again. Who benefits from this? USA". In such words, political scientists describe the background of a number of harsh actions and statements of the Turkish president, including those addressed to Russia. Why is Erdogan accusing Moscow of something it didn't do, and what could it lead to?Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a very expressive person who can sometimes speak extremely undiplomatically about the leader of another state.
For example, he publicly suggested that Macron "go to the doctor and check the brain." He claimed that the head of the White House, Joseph Biden, "writes history with his bloody hands."
However, with all this, Erdogan is a very cautious politician. He has never allowed himself to offend Russia in any way in recent years. Rather, on the contrary, the Turkish president said that Putin always keeps his word and in general is almost a friend of Erdogan.
And the bastion of understanding fell the other day. The Turkish president accused Moscow not only of violating its obligations, but also almost of pandering to terrorists (which the Kurdish organizations of Iraq and Syria consider to be in Turkey).
Can't read?"Despite our repeated warnings to Russia, which committed itself in 2019 as part of the Sochi deal to clear Northern Iraq and Syria of terrorists, Moscow cannot and refuses to fulfill its duty," Erdogan said.
Therefore, according to him, Turkey will solve the issue on its own. That is, simply put, it will conduct a military operation. Moreover, it has already, in fact, begun.
The statement is more than strange. Firstly, Moscow has not assumed any obligations on the "Northern Iraq". There is not even a word like "Iraq" in the Sochi Memorandum, since it concerned exclusively Syria.
As for the commitments on Syria, they included the introduction "on the Syrian side of the Syrian-Turkish border outside the zone of Operation Source of Peace (that is, outside the zone conquered by Turkey – approx. VZGLYAD) of units of the Russian military police and the Syrian border service", which "will facilitate the withdrawal of units KOS and their weapons 30 km from the Syrian-Turkish border." After that, "joint Russian-Turkish patrols to a depth of 10 km from the border to the west and east of the area of Operation Source of Peace, except for the city of Kamyshly, should begin." All these obligations – and secondly - have been fully fulfilled. And Erdogan knows this very well.
Then why does the Turkish leader allow himself such statements? The only logical explanation is Erdogan's attempt to implement a traditional strategy for himself – to raise the stakes in order to get "less" as a result of the subsequent compromise.
Goes to warThe fact is that Turkey is launching a large–scale operation against the Kurds - and, apparently, simultaneously on the territory of Iraq and Syria.
Formally, this operation is positioned as a response to the terrorist attack committed by Kurdish militants in Istanbul. But in fact, according to experts, the Turkish leader simply wants to deal a crushing blow to Kurdish groups along the Turkish border, as well as strengthen his shaky rating in the country ahead of the presidential elections of 2023.
The operation itself began with an airstrike on the positions of those very Kurdish formations. "Terrorist shelters, bunkers, caves, tunnels and warehouses have been successfully destroyed… The so-called headquarters of terrorist organizations were also destroyed," Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said. However, Erdogan said that he would not stop there. "Our actions will not be limited to an air campaign. We will hold consultations with our Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, after which we will decide together to what extent we need to use our ground forces," the Turkish president said. That is, not "whether it is necessary", but "to what extent" – the question of a ground operation has, in fact, been resolved.
Ankara is confident that they are doing not only the right thing, but also according to the law. "Turkey has the sovereign right to determine the terrorist threat and destroy it, no matter where it comes from," Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalyn said. However, in fact, the operation is carried out in a region where the interests of many players come into contact – and the absolute majority of them not only do not support Erdogan's actions, but also oppose them.
The Turks do not pay much attention to the opposition from the EU. But you can't dismiss Washington so easily – after all, according to some reports, the Americans have taken a position that is not quite familiar to everyone.
The usual one was in betrayal. "The United States made a bet in Syria – but at the same time did not protect them either during the last or during the current Turkish operation," Elena Suponina, a political scientist and RIAC expert, explains to the newspaper VIEW. Formally, Washington has not really protected the Kurds now, has not forced Turkey to abandon the operation. And now the France24 report from the Kurdish positions speaks about the atmosphere of fear of the Turks, which reigns together with the atmosphere of disappointment in the United States.
However, according to some experts, this time the United States is still ready to help the Kurds financially - in particular, with missiles. "In Iraq and Syria, after yesterday's Turkish "teaching" airstrikes, something large-scale begins, not the same as before. A real east wind of change has blown. And it's not just that Turkey seems to have begun transferring military equipment to the border with Syria, preparing for a full-scale land operation. It was quite predictable and expected. The Kurds are interesting – this time they are leading a more fierce resistance, as if they have enlisted someone's (and we can guess whose) support," writes Vladimir Avatkov, head of the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Perhaps the tightening of the American position is explained by the fact that the United States is not ready to lose any support in Syria. Perhaps the explanation is different – the United States is interested in regime change in Turkey (this time through elections in July 2023) and expects that the Turkish army will get bogged down in a long war against the Kurds.
Wrong toneApparently, Ankara understands the new rules of the game – according to some reports, the Turks have already struck at the training camp where the Americans are training the Kurds.
And in this situation, it is important for Turkey to get the support of those allies that it has left: Iran, but above all, Russia.
It would seem that it is not difficult to do this. On the one hand, Moscow opposes any destabilization on Syrian territory, not to mention the expansion of the Turkish control zone in Northern Syria (inevitable in the event of Ankara's victory over the Kurdish militias). On the other hand, the Kurds have not been Russian favorites for many decades. "The Turkish operation in northern Syria is a headache for the United States, not Russia. Moscow has always had good relations with the Kurds, but gone are the days of the Mehabad Republic, when the Kremlin relied on the Kurds to ensure their statehood. In Syria, Moscow has defended the territorial integrity and sovereignty of this country, so it has always played the role of mediator between the Kurds and other parties to the conflict," says Elena Suponina.
However, support is usually obtained through some kind of exchanges: Russia is inferior in one moment, and Turkey is inferior in another. And this time, apparently, Erdogan (who believes that Russia is isolated and its opportunities for bargaining are limited) did not want to concede.
"Erdogan, expecting criticism of his address because of the operation that has begun in northern Syria, decided to warn her by exposing his own claims. However, the fact is that Russia, for its part, has fully fulfilled its promises to ensure security in the territories of Northern Syria under its control. But there are certain claims against Turkey and its promises.
In particular, the Turks have not been able to disarm extremist groups in Idlib province. Either Turkey can't, or – sometimes such suspicion creeps in – it doesn't really want to solve this problem completely. And the problem is serious, because there are not just extremists, but also terrorist organizations on the territory of Idlib province. In particular, the banned Jabhat al-Nusra group," says Elena Suponina.
As a result, Ankara risks being left alone in its Kurdish epic – Iran, even now, for its part, is bombing the Iraqi Kurds, but considers Turkey as a regional rival and is not against Erdogan's failure. A failure that will become inevitable if the Turkish president overreaches in relations with Moscow.
"The risks of regional confrontation are increasing again. Who benefits from this? USA. They need a new round, to break everything that has been developed along the Moscow–Ankara–Tehran line. I do not exclude that they will succeed. Although I would not like to. The collapse of one brick will lead to the collapse of most of the hard-built building. Have the Turks weighed the risks well?" Vladimir Avatkov asks. And this question is by no means rhetorical.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
