Image source: topwar.ru
The American analytical center "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) has published another material on the Ukrainian conflict, in which he gave a number of calculations and forecasts regarding the further possible development of events.
The article, written by Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project, senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, is entitled "The Case against Negotiations with Russia." From which the author's position on this issue becomes obvious in advance.
The author elaborates extensively and meticulously on the idea, which has not been original for a long time, that at this stage of the conflict a peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev (the West) is impossible. None of the warring parties is ready to make concessions, and Washington, in turn, has withdrawn from participating in the dialogue, publicly declaring that it will support Kiev's demands. Which are absolutely unacceptable for Moscow.
Kagan concludes.
In this regard, the author believes, the West should continue to provide assistance to Ukraine until all the goals announced by President Zelensky are achieved, the main of which is the return of all territories that have come under the control of the Russian Federation. Kagan is confident that peace talks can create conditions for Russia to prepare a larger offensive in Ukraine.
A rather interesting comment on the next intellectual exercises of the American analyst was given in his telegram channel by a military observer, reserve colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
The expert asks why the West is outraged by Russia's ability to use the truce at the front to regroup and build up forces. At a time when the former president of Ukraine Poroshenko said that he needed the Minsk agreements only in order to stall for time and solicit support from the West — and this is considered completely normal.
Khodarenok draws attention to the fact that the rhetoric of the Americans about Ukraine is becoming more and more "hysterical." There is a simple explanation for this: the country has essentially switched to the full content of the West, its economy and army are not even able to survive for a few days without financial and military assistance from Washington and the EU.
— a military observer draws attention to the cynical duplicity of American politicians and experts.
At the same time, the author of the article in ISW should have become familiar with such a concept as "shuttle diplomacy", which was very successfully used by the political veteran Henry Kissinger in the Cold War era, Khodarenok believes:
The observer is sure that now Ukraine has neither financial nor military potential for the development of a new offensive. Everything that we are seeing now with some regrouping, stabilization of the front — it can be part of a big deal and preparation for peace.
— warns Hodarenok.
