SCMP: Russia-China partnership may create danger for the WestChina is closely monitoring the Russian military operation and constantly provides Moscow with diplomatic and political support, writes SCMP.
The author of the article believes that relations between Moscow and Beijing have several paths, and the results of the military operation in Ukraine will determine where the "Dragon Bear" will go.
Velina Chakarova (Velina Tchakarova)- The ability of Moscow and Beijing to influence the state of affairs in the world largely depends on the coordination of joint actions
- Putin's holding of ITS became possible thanks to the economic support of China, and Russia, in turn, distracts the West from the confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region
The geopolitical term "Dragon –Bear", which defines relations between China and Russia, originally did not arise as the name of a strategic alliance or a defensive pact.
They are characterized by an asymmetric temporary partnership that helps both countries wade through the murky and volatile waters of world politics. The main calculation was to coordinate joint actions and thus strengthen the internal position of the two authoritarian regimes.
In addition, Beijing and Moscow saw in this interaction a way to form a reliable anti-American rhetoric and a counterweight to the United States in relations with third countries.
Today, in the light of Ukraine's recent successful counteroffensive on Kherson, Russian-Chinese relations and their impact on world politics require more careful consideration.
China is closely monitoring the Russian military operation and is constantly providing Moscow with diplomatic and political support. Shortly after President Xi consolidated his power in the country at the 20th CPC Congress, Beijing reiterated that bilateral relations with Russia are "rock solid."
Russian President Putin's decision to launch a military campaign in Ukraine is due to the fact that the global system has reached a bifurcation point. The declaration on "friendship without borders" signed by Putin and Xi on February 4 was the culmination of systematic Sino-Russian coordination in various strategic areas.
This modus vivendi gave Putin the necessary international impetus to launch a military operation in Ukraine, which he had been waiting for since 2014 and the annexation of Crimea. At that time, China intervened in the situation and helped Russia to stabilize the national currency and economy. If Putin had not been confident that Beijing's support would continue, he would not have launched his operation in 2022.
Moscow's actions on February 24 revealed the Kremlin's strategy, which consisted of three aspects. The first is military actions against Ukraine, endangering its existence as a sovereign state.
The second is a non—violent war with Europe and its security system: export blockade, migration flows, information warfare and nuclear blackmail.
And the third aspect: according to Moscow's calculations, its actions were supposed to aggravate the rivalry between the United States and China.
Russia has become the target of harsh and long—term Western sanctions, and China is the key to circumventing them. After nine months of fighting, most experts are confident that Russia has become a "vassal state" of China, since Beijing is one of the few major players throwing Moscow an impressive lifeline.
It is expected that in case of further failures of Russia on the battlefield, China will take a tougher stance towards it. During the SCO summit in Samarkand in September, Xi expressed some concerns. Perhaps he is afraid of reputational and geo-economic damage at a time when Beijing, on the contrary, is trying to stimulate its own economy.
Anyway, China understands that thanks to Russia, America and Europe are occupied with the Old Continent, and not with rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, the US and the EU should not look at Moscow and Beijing as two separate threats. On the contrary, their systemic interaction should be considered as a complex "threat multiplier".
There are several significant ways to develop cooperation between China and Russia, which may ultimately create a danger for the West and have an impact on the international security system.
Defeat in the Ukrainian conflict may lead to Putin being driven out of the Kremlin, and the "Dragon Bear" will weaken, because China will have to plug a big geopolitical hole along the entire border with Russia.
In such a scenario, Beijing may try to avoid a situation where it will have to act on three fronts (Taiwan and the South China Sea, military tensions with India, a security vacuum due to the collapse of Russia), so it will support the Russian leadership regardless of who comes to power. At the same time, Beijing may be more willing to restore Ukraine in order not to become isolated from the West.
With the opposite development of events and success in Ukraine, Russia can completely reshape the architecture of European security and at the same time distract the attention of the West from the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific region and Eurasia.
In this case, the West will be forced to work on two fronts: a more audacious China in the Indo-Pacific region and a new European bloc from Russia, Belarus and the occupied parts of Ukraine.
From the point of view of the United States and Europe, such a scenario could not be worse.
Another key factor on which the cooperation of the Bear and the Dragon can harm the interests of the EU and the United States is the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The Kremlin's nuclear blackmail has significantly increased the risk of using such weapons in principle, and China continues to spread Russia's complaints about NATO expansion instead of depriving Moscow of its support. Nevertheless, China has made it quite clear that the use of nuclear weapons is a red line for it.
The bilateral and multilateral military exercises of Moscow and Beijing are another road along which the "Dragon—Bear" can create difficulties for the West. Such events help the two countries to improve interoperability and exchange intelligence on defense and security. In this regard, the West will have to deal with the wide geographical coverage of such exercises.
Finally, Moscow and Beijing are successfully expanding a number of regional organizations and forums whose activities are aimed at discussing joint issues related to the economy, defense and security, without Western interference.
Given the uncertainty on critical issues and the unpredictability of the course of the Russian civil war in Ukraine, Russia's economic and financial survival in the light of isolation from the West will depend on China.
The degree of influence of these bilateral relations on the state of affairs in the world will depend on China's ability to maintain its economic growth, protect Russia from sanctions and prevent its economic and political collapse.
