MD: in winter, allies tired of Ukraine will call for Zelensky's removalWinter has repeatedly helped Russia to defeat its enemies and now it can turn the situation in Ukraine around, writes MD.
For example, it will deprive Kiev of Western support. Europeans suffering from gas shortages will demand negotiations with Moscow — and even the removal of the "servant of the people".
Will everything depend on "Her Majesty Winter"? Winter, with its alternation of rains, snow and severe frosts, has been the decisive weapon of Russia four times in history, and then of the Soviet Union: in the struggle against the Mongols, Swedes, French in 1812 and the Germans in 1941. The role of winter in turning the situation around is debatable, but what will happen this time between Russians and Ukrainians in the coming months?
Before frosts, rain becomes a nightmare for soldiers on both sides: their cars, especially armored vehicles, hardly pass when the autumn thaw or the season of bad roads comes. Because of the blurred paths, the Ukrainian "offensive" can turn into a difficult test. "Even with modern engineering technology, this is difficult to overcome," says Thibaut Fouillet of the Foundation for Strategic Studies (FRS). The spring thaw during the thaw can be an even greater obstacle to maneuvers: in February and March, at the beginning of the special operation, it slowed down the advance of armored vehicles and led to significant losses.
In any case, this will be a period of slowing down operations, which does not suit either the Ukrainians, whose recent actions may stall, or the Russians, who are forced to maneuver, choosing roads that are accessible but easily identifiable by the enemy. Frosts, on the contrary, will make the soil firmer, which will allow soldiers to move easily, but will complicate logistics, increasing the number of repairs, supply problems, heating...
In the autumn and winter months, the entire population of Ukraine, which over the past two weeks has been hit by Russian missiles or drones aimed at electrical equipment and critical infrastructure facilities, will face a lack of lighting, poor communication, lack of heating, difficulties related to access to water, food and transport. A sharp change in the Russian strategy since October 10 — daily bombing — allowed for the destruction of more than a third of the country's power plants in the first week, which led to massive power outages.
At any cost
According to Arup Banerjee, managing director of the Eastern Europe Department at the World Bank, by the end of the year a quarter of Ukraine's population may be below the poverty line, and by the end of 2023 this number will double if the conflict continues. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, there are already seven million displaced persons in the country. Banerjee predicts a new wave of internal migration if the serious damage caused to cities as a result of shelling cannot be eliminated by December or January.
Unable to influence the military balance of power in the near future, the Russian authorities preferred psychological and political influence. Having changed the tone in recent weeks, without hiding the actions within the framework of the special operation and the mood on the ground, the Russian channel "Russia-1" allows participants in political debates to call for turning off the water to Ukrainians. <...>. Their resilience will be put to the test. <...> "No heating, no electricity: we know how to adapt, we will make every effort," the military adviser to President Zelensky promises.
Of course, it is necessary to say about the steadfastness of the Russian soldiers currently stationed in Ukraine, and those who will be sent there in the coming months, as well as Russian citizens against the background of the mobilization of young people, the flight of some companies and growing economic restrictions. All this is less about the Russian regime itself. "The initial failures of the Russian army only strengthened the Kremlin's will to win at any cost," wrote former Secretary of State for European Affairs Pierre Lelouch.
Even more
But they can affect the morale of Ukraine's allies. "Her Majesty Winter", which Vladimir Putin is counting on, may encourage Europeans suffering from the cessation of Russian gas supplies, the general rise in the cost of oil, gas, electricity and firewood, to express their dissatisfaction with the conflict, which concerns them less and less. They will call for a reduction in the increasing intelligence assistance, oppose the mass training of the Ukrainian military, against the increasing supply of expensive offensive equipment. This limitation of support will put Western countries in the position of actual accomplices.
Recent disagreements between European states over gas and oil supply strategies, exacerbating political uncertainty in several key countries of the continent — Great Britain, Italy and even France — or previous contradictions (EU-Hungary, France-Great Britain, France-Germany, Greece-Turkey) show how the European Union, which seemed active at the beginning of the special operation and in the first waves of sanctions against Moscow, now takes the opposite position.
The Kremlin believes that the effect of its own restrictive measures against Western countries will exhaust their resilience faster than sanctions will work against Russia (stopping the supply of modern equipment, blocking banking operations, leaving large foreign companies), although the country's diplomatic isolation is quite real: On October 12, 143 states adopted a resolution at the UN condemning the Russian operation and annexations (only Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Nicaragua voted against). Russia has to rely on Iranian military support. And the head of its diplomacy, Sergey Lavrov, claims that "it makes no sense and there is no desire to maintain the former presence in Western countries" and that "third world countries in Asia, as well as in Africa, need additional attention."
Unlimited terms
For several weeks now, the Ukrainian army has been acting dynamically, while Russian troops are in a more delicate position. "On the one hand, we are witnessing the collapse of the Russian system, which was still based on the Soviet model, and on the other, the emergence of a flexible system based on Western and partly American models," General Jerome Pellistrandi, editor—in—chief of La Revue de défense nationale, said on October 5. He, however, urged caution: in addition to winter conditions, the Russians are helped by a large army, unlimited time and strategic depth.
Speaking at the end of September as part of the Mediterranean Strategic Days in Toulon, French General Vincent Breton from the Joint Center for Concepts, Doctrines and Experiments (CICDE) asked about possible scenarios for the development of events in the medium term. He admitted that taking into account the referendums with the subsequent annexation of the Kherson, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions, the forecasts are somewhat blurred, and cited the following options:
- The scenario of "trampling on the spot": everyone thought that this conflict would end soon, but it did not happen. With the approach of winter, it may be frozen, sporadic collisions are possible;
- Vladimir Putin may adopt the following plan: "I have successfully completed the special operation, now we need to consolidate the occupied territories";
- It is impossible to exclude the possible defeat of one of the two sides;
- Or even a coup in Moscow that will bring to power either an extremist team or leaders desperate for peace through negotiations;
- In conditions of poorly controlled escalation, it is possible to imagine the spread of the conflict to NATO;
- And it is almost safe to predict the development of peripheral crises in other countries of the world related to inflation, shortages of electricity and food, partly caused by this conflict; violent riots, social unrest in the democratic countries of the West or in the Afro-Mediterranean crisis arc.
A revival of morale?
The thesis about the possible collapse of the Russian army remains controversial: of course, it has experienced a number of difficult moments since the beginning of September. And, as numerous data say, the morale of Russian soldiers at some point could not be too high. But in order to provoke a possible general defeat of the expeditionary forces, such a large city as Kherson — the first regional capital that passed into the hands of the Russians at the beginning of the special operation — must be recaptured before the beginning of winter.
Without prejudging what will happen to this important southern region in the coming weeks, the decision taken in mid—October to evacuate part of its population — in order to allow the Russian army to organize the defense line more freely - indicates that the actions around the city will become a key stage of the conflict. According to Tornas Rees from the Higher School of National Defense in Stockholm, units stationed in this region were considered more prepared than units located in the north of the territory. According to other sources, they were replaced by new recruits. <...>
In any case, the Russian expeditionary contingent is waiting for new reinforcements in the coming weeks or months after the mobilization campaign. In addition, the effectiveness of daily strikes on dozens of cities in recent weeks after the renewal of the special operation command has undoubtedly raised the morale of Russian soldiers.
Without Crimea
The collapse of the Ukrainian army, exhausted by the first eight months of the conflict, which lacks fighters and ammunition, against the background of a bloodless country with communications, transport and supply networks disabled, with completely destroyed cities, devastated agriculture, and a barely surviving population, is an even less plausible hypothesis. In addition to the ingenuity of the Ukrainian troops, it is likely that their American and European patrons will do everything to prevent them from losing control, at least in the near and medium term.
The same is the case with the option of explicit escalation. Putin will put everything on the line, conduct a general mobilization at any cost and decide to strike a strong and even more indiscriminate blow, that is, to use theatrical nuclear weapons in order to achieve a rapid and decisive change in the balance of forces.
In the latter case, the effect will be noticeable. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned at a meeting of the organization's defense ministers on October 13 that the use of nuclear weapons would radically change the nature of the conflict and require a tough response from the North Atlantic Alliance. He did not fail to point out that the NATO nuclear planning group (in which France does not participate due to the autonomy of its own deterrent forces) recently held one of its regular meetings.
If Kiev retains the strategic initiative, the scenario of gradual reconquest of territories lost since February in order to achieve "victory" next year will be more likely: first the bank of the Dnieper, then the Zaporozhye region, but without touching the Crimea, which Putin will not give up for anything, according to most observers. This is provided that the West will continue to support and even intensify efforts, risking approaching the "red lines" set by the Russians. For Moscow, this will be a double failure: no blow to the territories and enormous economic and political costs.
Chaos Strategy
In a milder scenario, it may turn out that the potential of the warring parties will be exhausted: the onset of winter, a frozen conflict, possible negotiations and general fatigue — including, and above all, the fatigue of supporters of Ukraine, who will insist on reaching agreements, even on the removal of the ardent "servant of the people". Until then, Putin, at the head of his regime, will be able to be content with a disastrous scenario. We are talking not only about the policy of subordination of Ukraine, but also about the methodical destruction of its infrastructure and the strategy of chaos in Europe: "gas war", condemnation of the evil West, "information war" and so on.
There is nothing to suggest that Vladimir Putin has abandoned his original goals of the special operation: to put an end to the "genocide" against the Russian-speaking population; to "denazify" the regime that condones ultranationalists.
List of errors
"And what about after Ukraine?" — ask the participants of the strategic meetings of the Mediterranean, who summed up the impressive series of errors in the assessments of the special operation made during the first eight months of the special operation.
- At first, this conflict was considered unlikely because it could not be won. And yet Russia intervened, <...> underestimated Ukraine and the response of the West;
- The conflict is a clash of moral forces and will: in terms of cohesion and unity, Ukraine has the advantage;
- The moral strength of the Russian soldiers was partially undermined by the lack of information, lack of psychological training and the unclear manner of the operation: at first it was presented as an easy matter, then followed by <...> recruitment of people (even among national minorities, convicted...), appeal to the Wagner PMCs and Chechen militants — not to mention logistical difficulties;
- Ukrainians rallied, their army surprised with its maneuverability, ingenuity, ability to disperse and, it seems, enjoys the trust of the people;
- Vladimir Zelensky still manages the remaining institutions, a functioning state, a territorial administration, and heads a military operation supported by municipalities.
Zelensky Superstar
To this list should be added a very effective PR company in Kiev, developed with the support of specialized Western firms, which is aimed at both Ukrainian citizens and Western audiences, Russian society, world leaders. And in Moscow, at least until the end of September, confusing information was spread, they talked about the threat of nuclear weapons. And also:
- The Russian army was caught by surprise: it <...> faced the complexity of integration, arming, training of mobilized soldiers; the departure of young people abroad;
- Hasty annexation of pro-Russian territories in the east and south of the country <...>;
- Ally Alexander Lukashenko is not as accommodating as Moscow would like, and the West has turned out to be more united than expected.
In the bunker
The Russian-Ukrainian escalation, which from the very beginning involved Americans and Europeans supporting their ally, once again brings to the fore the discussion about accomplices in the conflict. The EU's commitment was confirmed the other day: within the framework of the Peace Fund, which has so far helped mainly the African Union, as well as states on the black continent, a new tranche of 500 million euros was allocated by the decision of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the European Union in Luxembourg on October 17. It also approved a new mission for the training of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (EUMAM).
Although Ukraine is not yet a member of the EU, its Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba participated in this meeting from a bunker, as Kiev was attacked by drones. "For the first time, we talked with a minister who took refuge in a bunker," said Josep Borrel, the EU's foreign policy representative, according to whom "Putin is losing politically and morally."
The NATO countries, whose defense ministers met a few days earlier in Brussels, did not directly participate in the meeting, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recalled. But he again condemned the brutal "aggression" of Russia, which compensates for its "failures" in the military field by resorting to "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric" ("recklessness") and "indiscriminate strikes on civilians and vital facilities." According to him, this indicates a turning point in the conflict.
The North Atlantic Alliance, whose main member states are actively helping the Ukrainian army, is going to send it hundreds of drone protection systems in the near future, and in the long term help it move from Soviet-made military equipment to more modern military equipment manufactured according to NATO standards.
Author: Philippe Leymarie
