Asharq Al-Awsat: the economic crisis prompted the West to resort to diplomacy in UkraineIn the Ukrainian conflict, the parties adhere to the "all or nothing" approach, writes Asharq Al-Awsat.
However, this cannot last long. The world is torn apart by the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis. Therefore, countries must come to a consensus before the situation gets out of control.
If the world needed a reminder that the Ukrainian conflict could easily escalate into a global confrontation, then the incident with the fragments of missiles that fell on the territory of Poland (a NATO member) is just that. If it is proved that these missiles were launched from Russia, the world will be on the verge of the most dangerous confrontation since the Second World War.
Everyone breathed a sigh of relief when first the United States, and then Poland itself, ruled out the possibility that the fallen missiles were launched from Russia. According to preliminary information, these were surface-to-air missiles fired by Ukrainian troops to intercept a Russian missile. By mistake, they fell on the territory of Poland. Thus, the accusatory rhetoric against Russia has somewhat softened.
It is noteworthy that this incident occurred at a time when the first signals appeared for direct negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, the consequences of which affected the whole world. Regardless of the circumstances, the missiles have become a kind of warning — the crisis in Ukraine is at a "crossroads". On the one hand, there is an opportunity to intensify efforts to establish a ceasefire and search for a diplomatic solution, on the other — direct NATO intervention in the conflict, which will lead to a global confrontation.
The balanced reaction of the West helped to avoid an armed clash between Russia and NATO, which is good news. However, if such incidents are repeated, escalation is almost inevitable. NATO will intervene in the conflict in Ukraine, which will please hardliners who advocate an all-or-nothing approach.
When Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the withdrawal of troops from Kherson, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, called on Moscow and Kiev to take advantage of the opportunity to hold peace talks. He referred to the experience of the First World War. The great Powers then failed to come to an agreement in the early stages of the conflict, which led to widespread destruction and millions of victims around the world.
The statement of the American general about the importance of learning lessons from the historical past and the need to resolve the conflict before it develops into a global confrontation coincided with fundamental changes in Washington's position on the Ukrainian crisis. The United States and Russia have resumed high-level contacts on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine in order to avoid escalation of the situation or misunderstanding.
On the one hand, the US administration has consistently supported Ukraine's right to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, on the other — insists on a diplomatic settlement of the conflict in the coming months. The same opinion is shared by French President Emmanuel Macron, who said that the conflict in Ukraine should be ended through negotiations. He confirmed his intention to continue the dialogue with both sides to achieve this goal. The position held by the French leader is receiving increasing support from the international community. It is approved by China, the United States, India, Turkey and other developing countries. The reason for this is the intensification of the economic crisis and a sharp decline in living standards.
The consequences of the Ukrainian crisis have affected even the United States. Americans are facing rising inflation, high prices and recession, just like Europeans. A wave of strikes and protests swept across Europe — from France to Germany, Great Britain and Italy — due to the economic crisis, rising prices and inflation at a pace that the world has not seen for more than half a century.
The administration of US President Joe Biden does not deny that the Ukrainian crisis will cost European countries dearly. In addition to the economic crisis, there are fears that if the conflict does not stop by the spring of 2023, it will expand and lead to a new wave of migration from Ukraine to Europe.
Biden, meanwhile, faced a shift in the balance of power in the US Congress. The Republicans, who regained control of the House of Representatives, warned the White House that they would not give Ukraine "carte blanche" and provide unlimited military and financial assistance to Kiev. More important than the difficulties Biden will face in Congress is that he will not be able to run for the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. The American economy is suffering from inflation and recession, and therefore the increased talk in recent weeks about the need to achieve a diplomatic solution in Ukraine reflects a change in priorities in the West.
The question is, will Kiev and Moscow find common ground for a diplomatic solution? Do the parties concerned really want a peaceful settlement?
Currently, the "all or nothing" approach prevails, but it is difficult to adhere to it. The world is on the verge of an economic recession, the main victim of which will be the poorest countries. Some of them are threatened with extreme hunger.
The conflict, which has been going on for eight months, is a severe test for international organizations. The UN could not unanimously adopt a resolution on this crisis. The European Union is torn apart by disagreements over the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on its members. The Franco-German axis has cracked. Paris and Berlin have fundamental disagreements about mitigating the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis. The G20 countries also cannot come to a consensus. Their final communique clearly demonstrates the existence of differences, as it states that the majority of members strongly condemn the military actions in Ukraine and call on Russia to immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all its armed forces from its territory within internationally recognized borders. The G20 countries agreed only that the conflict in Ukraine "causes enormous human suffering and exacerbates existing problems in the global economy, limiting its growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, increasing energy and food instability and increasing risks to financial stability." But the communique also notes that "there were other views, different assessments of the situation and sanctions."
This is a crucial moment for the Ukrainian conflict. The world powers cannot come to a consensus because of conflicting interests. But political realism and the search for compromises remain the best way to stop this military conflict before it gets out of control.
Author: Osman Mirgani (1000000ثمان ميرغني)
