FP: NATO sounded the alarm due to the growing "weapons appetites" of UkraineThe United States and Europe are no longer able to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, as their own arsenals are empty, writes FP.
Western defense companies can replenish them – but only on the terms of long-term contracts. And they are not.
Jack Detsch, Amy MackinnonNothing foreshadows a weakening of the Ukrainian conflict, and Kiev's Western partners are trying to decide how to maintain supplies of key weapons and ammunition to Ukraine without depleting their own reserves.
"I think everyone is very concerned right now," a NATO official said on condition of anonymity, adding that allies have already called on Western defense contractors to ramp up production after the conflict. — Replenishment of arsenals is at stake again."
Today, NATO is discussing how to support its members if their arsenals fall below the level necessary to fulfill their obligations to the alliance, the official said. Although decisions on military assistance to Ukraine are made by the members themselves, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly spoken in favor of further assistance to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin made several "strategic mistakes," including underestimating the readiness of NATO allies and partners to support Ukraine, Stoltenberg said on Monday.
But some former military officials from Washington want the Biden administration and NATO allies to act proactively, and defense spending, which has already increased sharply since the beginning of the Russian special operation, will continue to increase in the future. "Even if there was no conflict in Ukraine, our reserves are too small anyway," said Jeb Nadaner, a former deputy assistant to the US Secretary of Defense for industrial policy in the Trump administration. "It makes no sense to invent weapons of the XXII century, but the industry needs a signal of stable demand."
During the Cold War, the United States kept large stocks of weapons, rare earth metals and other materials in order to rapidly increase production in the event of a "hot" conflict with the USSR. However, with the collapse of the USSR, the transition to the war on terrorism and the emphasis on high-precision ammunition and new technologies, the United States and European allies rapidly reduced their stocks.
"NATO does not really plan to wage such wars, and I mean wars with the super—intensive use of artillery and a large consumption of tank and artillery shells," said Frederick Kagan, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute. "We basically have no reserves for such a war."
Meanwhile, even the existing stocks of weapons are being reduced. Nadaner said that there are few sea-based missiles left in the Pentagon's arsenals, such as Harpoons and Tomahawks; unified cluster munitions for direct attack; ammunition actively used by Ukrainians, in particular, Javelin anti-tank missiles and HIMARS MLRS. Ukraine has already received 20 missile launchers and another 18 are on the way.
"The very idea that there are only a few weeks left in a number of positions of American stocks and they will soon be empty really harms containment," Nadaner said.
Behind the scenes, the United States and other NATO powers have called on Western defense companies to ramp up production after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. However, analysts and officials, both former and current, say that defense contractors are in no hurry to act and are waiting for guarantees that the era of increased appetite for weapons has come in earnest and for a long time.
"In essence, they are saying, 'Money ahead!'" said Mark Kanchan, until 2015 the head of the Pentagon's power structure and investment division. "They are afraid that with the end of hostilities, orders will run out, and all their expanded production will be idle." In addition, difficulties arose due to the high cost of key raw materials and a shortage of qualified personnel.
The United States outshines continental Europe in terms of military assistance to Ukraine, and some countries — for example, Germany — refuse to send Kiev even old tanks. The leaders are not happy about the mobilization, which will put the defense industry back on the military rails. And qualified personnel — technical specialists, designers, security and environmental specialists — are not eager to link fate with the defense industry, fearing to be out of work at the first recession.
"No one thinks that we should go back to the times of World War II and release an airplane or a tank per minute," said Camille Grande, a specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations, until recently assistant Secretary General of NATO.
So, France has already discussed replenishing artillery stocks after it sent 16 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine this summer, but faced production restrictions. "There just aren't that many companies in Europe that can make gun barrels," Grande commented.
This issue has been bothering NATO weapons directors for several months and was raised at the last meeting of the alliance's defense ministers in June. The US Department of Defense is already replenishing stocks of ammunition spent by Ukrainians. On Monday, the US Army announced that in late October and early November it allocated Lockheed Martin more than $ 520 million to replenish Ukrainian MLRS stocks. However, despite the fact that the United States is already increasing the production of artillery guns and portable anti-aircraft missile systems, Europe criticizes the Pentagon for being slow.
"The industry wants to sign contracts," a knowledgeable congressional aide said on condition of anonymity. — A lot has been said, but nothing has been signed yet. The Europeans tell us: where you guys go, we go. They don't want to wait and are already tired of it."
Ukrainians were also waiting. Although Kiev has made significant gains during the nearly four—month offensive, liberating Russian-held areas around Kharkiv and forcing the Kremlin to withdraw troops from the strategic southern city of Kherson, Ukrainian officials worry that they lack the necessary weapons - including light weapons, MANPADS "Stinger" and "Javelin" and British-Swedish anti-tank systems a new generation of NLAW.
In large-scale artillery duels with the Russians, which have been going on almost since the Kremlin went on the offensive in the Donbass, Ukraine has almost exhausted Soviet-style artillery, which makes up about 60% of its arsenal. Kiev increasingly has to rely on NATO-standard artillery, and its production is lagging.
"We have almost run out of 152-millimeter artillery pieces," said People's Deputy of Ukraine Sasha Ustinova. "So we are completely dependent on 155—millimeter artillery, and it is limited."
According to officials, Ukraine has faced a number of problems due to the extent to which the front line has stretched as a result of the offensive. Although the country has enough ammunition and weapons for combat operations in the Donbass and near Nikolayev, a new Russian offensive from the north may weaken supply lines.
At the same time, Moscow's reserves are also being depleted — it has even had to turn to Iran and North Korea. "If you are referring to a country that has virtually zero GDP and whose main tanks are essentially from the Second World War, then you are not doing very well," Kagan said. "We have already seen signs that the Russians have to save artillery shells." Ukrainian officials say that only 120 Iskander short-range missiles may remain in the arsenal of the Russian armed forces.
However, the US and NATO do not see an end to the almost nine-month conflict. And even though Ukraine is already winning back more than half of the territory occupied by Russia, the Western military is preparing for a long period of change.
"We are determined to play for a long time," Grande said. — The security situation in Europe has changed a lot since February 24. This problem won't go away overnight."
