Noonpost: Kiev wanted to provoke a military clash between NATO and Russia with the incident in PolandOne of the explanations for the incident in Poland may be Ukraine's desire to provoke a military clash between NATO and Russia, writes Noonpost.
Although there are no results of the investigation yet, Kiev blames Moscow for the missile strike. But it is obvious even to the West that Russia could not have acted so unwisely.
The Ukrainian conflict is at a new stage of escalation. The reason was the fall of missiles on the territory of Poland (a NATO member), as a result of which two people were killed. Serious material damage was also caused. This incident has raised concerns about a direct clash between Russia and NATO. Recall that Russia was called responsible for the fall of missiles in Poland on November 15, 2022. However, Moscow categorically rejects all the accusations against it.
Polish President Andrzej Duda admitted that Warsaw has no clear evidence of who exactly launched these missiles. Zelensky, in turn, hastened to "point the finger" at Putin, thereby accusing Russia of launching a "missile strike." The Ukrainian leader added that this had already happened in Moldova before. Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Timofey Milovanov said that there is evidence that the missiles that fell on Poland were Russian.
US President Joe Biden called it unlikely that these missiles were fired by Russia.
"According to preliminary information, this is refuted. I don't want to say this until the investigation is fully completed, but it is unlikely, in terms of trajectory, that they were launched from Russia. But we will see," the American leader said.
Poland has put all key services of the country on high alert. Biden and a number of world leaders held an emergency meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali in connection with this incident, which is likely to have serious consequences for the conflict in Ukraine. To admit Russia's involvement in the missile incident in Poland means to draw NATO into a direct confrontation, which will upset all existing balances.
Three options
There are three variants of who launched the missiles that fell on the territory of Poland. According to the first, Russia is behind this. The reason could be the losses suffered by the Russians in Ukraine, as well as the recent withdrawal of troops from Kherson, which put Vladimir Putin in a difficult position both inside the country and on the world stage.
It would seem that an attempt to take revenge and search for a "false victory" is the expected option. And by attacking Poland, Russia allegedly tried to remind of its might, on the other hand, to divert attention from the withdrawal of troops from Kherson. In this case, Putin seems to be probing the reaction of the West to such incidents.
Many people did not like this option, including US President Joe Biden, who ruled out Russia's involvement in the fall of missiles in Poland. But the truth is that Moscow, no matter what losses it faces in Ukraine, will in no way be able to withstand a military conflict with the entire North Atlantic Alliance now. Putin understands this perfectly well. And he understands that an attack on one member of the alliance is equivalent to an attack on all. If this happens, the armies of 30 countries will act against Russia in accordance with Article 5 of the NATO Charter.
According to the second option, the missiles fell in Poland by mistake. It is possible that they deviated from the set course. The missiles could have been fired both from the territory of Russia and Ukraine.
According to the third option, Ukrainian forces are behind this incident, which are again trying to provoke a direct clash between Russia and NATO. Zelensky has repeatedly stated that the conflict in Ukraine could spread beyond the country and spread throughout Europe if appropriate measures are not taken.
Exercise restraint and wait for the results of the investigation
Western leaders were slow to make accusations. They even called the incident an "incident" and not a "missile attack", taking into account the fact that their actions could have serious consequences for the region and the world as a whole. Preliminary information, according to Biden, does not indicate that the missiles that fell in Przewodów (eastern Poland), located about 12 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, were launched by Russia. The American leader urged to wait for the end of the investigation.
The same opinion was shared by French President Emmanuel Macron. He called for maximum caution in identifying the missile that fell in Poland and insisted on holding an emergency meeting. It is expected that several meetings of the leaders of Europe and the United States will be held in Indonesia.
US President Joe Biden held talks with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg within the framework of Article 4 of the NATO Charter, which states that "the parties will always consult with each other if, in the opinion of any of them, territorial integrity, political independence or security of any- either of the contracting parties will be under threat." This is the first step before activating the 5th article. It states that an armed attack on one or more NATO member countries will be considered an attack on them all.
It is not yet possible to identify those involved in what happened in Poland. Russia categorically rejects all accusations of involvement in the fall of missiles. According to The Associated Press, initial data indicate that the missiles were fired by Ukrainian troops to intercept a Russian missile. It is necessary to wait for the end of the investigation, because its results can change the rules of the game.
The Russian Defense Ministry has denied accusations of rocket fire in Poland, calling it a "deliberate provocation" in order to escalate the situation. The collected facts indicate that Moscow is not involved in the incident with the fall of missiles in Poland. Such a statement was made at the permanent mission of Russia to the UN. The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that he does not have any information about the explosions in Poland.
Inevitable changes. What are the consequences?
At the time of writing this article, the accusatory rhetoric against Russia has somewhat softened. Ukraine's attempts to accuse Putin of involvement in the "missile incident" were unsuccessful. NATO countries, including Poland itself, call for caution and restraint. Warsaw, despite its suspicions, said it had no evidence that the missiles were fired by the Russian military.
Until the investigation is completed, the ball is on the side of the West and Ukraine. Although Russia is not directly accused of the explosions in Poland, it will think a thousand times before taking such a serious step in the future. Especially against the background of the reaction of the West and the waving of the 4th and 5th articles of the NATO Charter.
This incident could be a good excuse to strengthen Warsaw's military potential. Russia viewed NATO at its borders as an act of aggression and a threat to its national security. The deployment of advanced air defense systems in Poland will be a "new knife in the side" of the Russian state. The same applies to Ukraine. Many demand to provide it with modern missile defense systems to repel attacks from Russia.
Whoever the culprit is, Moscow will still be partially responsible for this incident.
Neither Russia nor NATO benefits from confirmation of Moscow's involvement in the incident in Poland, as this will entail serious consequences up to the Third World War. Each side is trying to turn the situation to its advantage. The Russians insist that an information war is being waged against them and that Kiev does not want peace. The West, for its part, wants to clip Putin's wings and show him what will happen if he decides to attack any NATO member.
It is expected that the West will continue extended meetings and discussions until the investigation is completed. He will also exert all kinds of pressure on Moscow. But the question remains: is Putin really so short-sighted and irrational that he is ready to involve the armies of 30 countries in a direct military confrontation with Russia?
Despite the fact that the ball is still on the side of the West and Ukraine, this does not mean anything. All options are possible. Putin not only defends Russia's national security, but also his reputation, dignity and long-term political career, for which he is ready to go to the end. One thing is obvious — November 15, 2022 was a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Author: Saber Tantawi (صابر طنطاوي)
