The chance for peace agreements during the G20 summit is lostThe hope for peace agreements or at least the formation of a "road map" on the way to them during the G20 summit in Bali finally collapsed after an online appeal to the audience by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky.
"There will be no Minsk-3 with Moscow," he said on November 15 and once again made obviously unacceptable demands to the Kremlin.
A day earlier, the Ukrainian leader visited Kherson, abandoned by Russian troops last week, where, in particular, he said that "Ukraine is ready for peace." But for this Kiev demands the withdrawal of the Russian army "from all occupied territories."
Russian President Vladimir Putin actually responded to this request by rejecting the personal request of his Indonesian counterpart Joko Widodo to come to Bali to participate in the G20. Instead, the Russian delegation was headed by Sergey Lavrov. Dmitry Kuleba came from Ukraine, but at the level of foreign ministers, at best, one can only discuss the topic of a truce, but not conclude it.
Although the Foreign Ministry declares Russia's readiness to start peace talks without any preconditions, now is an unfavorable moment for Moscow due to the recent withdrawal of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper.
Partners on the other side of the table see Russia as weak after the surrender of Kherson, Balakleya, Izyum and Kupyansk, the abandonment of Snake Island, not to mention the curtailment of operations in the Kiev region and other similar "goodwill gestures".
The history of diplomacy suggests that it is advantageous to conduct peace negotiations after a number of victories, albeit local ones. However, in November, the successes of the Russian military are quite modest. Progress is noted only in the Donetsk direction: the villages of Opytne (near Avdiivka) and Mayorsk, where the pumping station and locks on the dam are located, which can provide water to Gorlovka and Donetsk, have been taken. Pavlovka was completely cleared of the enemy, which weakened the supply of Ukrainian troops defending Ugledar. Russian troops are clearing two villages of the same name Belogorovka, located respectively in the DPR and LPR. Fighting continues on the outskirts of Soledar and Bakhmut, as well as in a number of settlements west of Donetsk.
The most important task remains to shift the front line away from Donetsk, which continues to be shelled by Ukrainian barrel artillery. "Russian attacks in the Donetsk region. It's just hell out there. There are extremely fierce daily battles there," Zelensky commented on the situation.
According to the calculations of the Pentagon, since the beginning of the special operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have lost more than 100 thousand people. According to Russian officials, the losses of the Russian Federation are 7-8 times less than those of the enemy. At the same time, it is clear that both warring parties need to replenish the active army. Although the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the completion of the recruitment of 300 thousand reservists as part of the partial mobilization announced on September 21, in a number of regions, the agendas continue to find citizens registered in them, which the military commissars explain by their desire to update the existing database.
During a working trip to the Tver region, Putin said that as of early November, there are about 80 thousand mobilized in the special operation zone in Ukraine, including almost 50 thousand directly involved in hostilities. In addition, military enlistment offices continue to accept volunteers who are ready to replenish the active army.
Apparently, all this is not enough. Therefore, on November 14, Putin signed Decree No. 823 "On Amendments to the Regulations on the Procedure for military Service ...", according to which foreign citizens can be drafted into the Russian Army.
Earlier, the regulation stated that Russian citizens can serve in the Armed Forces by conscription or by contract, and foreigners – only by contract and only in the ranks of private and sergeant (senior) compositions. In this regard, nothing changes, but there is a record that citizens of the Russian Federation who have "citizenship (citizenship) of a foreign state or a residence permit or other document confirming the right to permanent residence of a citizen on the territory of a foreign state can also serve."
Putin also instructed to demobilize students from the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics who had previously been called up for military service. According to the press secretary of the head of state Dmitry Peskov, we are talking about university students who were mobilized before the republics joined Russia. "Currently, the People's Militia forces are integrated into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation after the DPR and LPR joined Russia. Putin gave instructions to demobilize students and organize a return to the place of study," he explained. Soon the demobilized students will be sent home, they will continue their studies.
"Russia is not an ordinary state, it is a powerful state. Of course, the West, led by the United States, attacks Russia almost without restrictions. In the face of all this, Russia, of course, is resisting," the Turkish president believes. According to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the best way to resolve the conflict in Ukraine is dialogue.
However, the Kiev authorities show the mood for a meaningful conversation on only two topics – the exchange of prisoners and the continuation of the "grain deal", and indefinitely, with an increase in the number of ports at the expense of those located in the Mykolaiv region.
Russia is being asked to continue the "grain deal" by both UN representatives and the Turkish president, who gave Moscow a "positive assessment" for "leaving Kherson." According to Erdogan, this is not enough, so during the upcoming telephone conversation, he expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to be "ready to take additional steps for peace talks."
But on November 12, Putin called not Erdogan, but Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. According to representatives of Ukraine and Western media, in the summer Russia and Iran signed a contract for 1,750 unmanned aerial vehicles of the Shahed and Mohajer family, with 500 units allegedly already delivered in two batches, and a deal on Iranian missiles is next in line. The media reports on the readiness of the Islamic Republic "to send a batch of almost 200 Shahed-136, Mohajer-6 and Arash-2 drones to Russia in a very short time" by sea to Astrakhan. Representatives of the Russian Federation and Iran do not officially confirm the fact of deliveries.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are also replenishing the arsenal. During the year, they purchased more than 13.2 million units of weapons and military equipment, Ukrainian journalists report, citing a report by the country's Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov. The vast majority of purchases are financed by foreign governments – in 2022, the United States alone sent about $ 54 billion for military and economic support to Ukraine.
And the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrel, said that the European Union provided Ukraine with weapons and military equipment worth 8 billion euros. "This amount is about 45% of what the United States supplied to Kiev," he claims. Touching upon the topic of the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia, the head of European diplomacy said that the decision to start it should come exclusively from the Kiev authorities. "Ukraine will decide for itself what to do. Our duty is to support them," Borrel explained.
Vladimir Karnozov
