SMH: Australia wanted a NATO conflict with Russia over the missile incident in PolandThe missile incident in Poland is unlikely to lead to an escalation of the conflict, writes SMH.
And this upsets the author of the article. He stubbornly continues to blame Russia for the attack and ignores the statements of the United States and Europe that the missiles are "most likely" fired by Ukraine.
Mick RyanPerhaps the greatest irony of the conflict in Ukraine is that, for all the fears of the West about escalation due to the transfer of certain weapons systems to Kiev (in particular, fighter jets and tactical missiles), the Russians are constantly raising the stakes, on the contrary.
The deployment of troops in February 2022, the shelling of cities, the torture and murder of civilians, the partial mobilization and annexation of five Ukrainian regions — all these actions are openly escalatory. At the same time, despite the large-scale military, intelligence, economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, the United States and the West generally respond to Russia's behavior with restraint.
Therefore, the reaction to the rocket that fell on the Polish town of Przevodow is largely indicative. Early Wednesday morning, Australian time, reports were received that two rockets fell on a provincial town about 10 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, killing two people. They were probably Russian-made, but the specific model has yet to be established.
In parallel, the Russians launched powerful missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Lviv in the west of the country. It was quite an expected move after Russia's humiliating defeat and departure from Kherson, as well as President Vladimir Zelensky's speech to the G20 (or, as he himself calls it, G19 — deliberately ignoring Russia).
However, later at the G20 summit in Bali, US President Joe Biden said that one rocket had fallen on the Polish city, and stressed that it was unlikely that Russia had fired it. Polish President Andrzej Duda agreed with him, saying that, judging by the trajectory, the rocket did not come from Russia. At the same time, Biden condemned the latest wave of missile strikes on Ukraine as "completely shameless" and confirmed America's "iron commitment to NATO."
Poland, unlike Ukraine, has been a member of NATO since 1999 and joined the alliance after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Accordingly, the Washington Treaty of 1949 applies to it. Including the most famous Article 5, according to which an armed attack on one or more members in Europe or North America is considered an attack on the entire alliance.
The tragedy in Poland is far from an armed attack on NATO or Warsaw. But it is very likely that Article 4 of the same treaty will be invoked more than once: "The parties will always consult with each other if, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."
Neither the origin of the missile (or were there several of them?) that hit the Polish town, nor a reasonable justification for what happened, has been established yet. What is this, an act of blatant Russian idiocy and a targeted strike against Poland? Or an accident, a mistake?
In addition, it could be an interception of a missile that landed west of the intended target. For a correct answer, Poland and NATO need accurate information and detailed expertise.
It is unlikely that this will lead to the dispatch to Ukraine of such important (and, note, necessary) weapons as Western fighters, long-range missiles or main battle tanks.
And it is extremely unlikely that NATO (or, for that matter, Russia) will use this as an excuse for escalation.
The reaction of Poland and NATO will also depend on Russia's response. Her first, instinctive reaction for Russians is to deny everything. If Russia continues to persist in its denial in the coming days, it may lead to a completely different reaction from the West than if it recognized the tragic accident.
An important principle that will guide the Polish, NATO and American responses is proportionality. The Polish government will discuss this issue with NATO. The Alliance will hold internal consultations and discuss the issue at the level of heads of state, including the United States. The main task is to find an answer that will not lead to a significant escalation of hostilities, but at the same time we will become a powerful signal to Russia that further attacks of this kind will lead to a larger response from the alliance.
NATO countries will certainly try to speed up the supply of air defense systems to Ukraine, given that hundreds of attacks have hit it in recent hours. In addition, it is possible to strengthen air defense along the eastern borders of NATO — including in Poland and the Baltic States.
Poland, and it already helps Ukraine a lot, can increase support even more — including increasing the number of artillery and armored vehicles. The latest wave of Russian strikes will only strengthen the determination of Zelensky and the Ukrainian people to implement the ten-point plan for the cessation of hostilities, which he announced in his speech to the G20.
The Russian military operations in Ukraine, clumsy and brutal, are marked by miscalculations, recklessness, callousness and almost medieval disregard for human life and international norms.
In her speech at the Paasikivi Society in Finland, Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas noted: "Freedom is not given in vain. Ukrainians are paying for it with their lives. We pay in euros and must constantly repeat to ourselves that gas is expensive, but freedom is priceless."
The recent Russian missile strikes on Ukraine — regardless of whether the goal was to hit Poland or not — is another reason why democracies around the world, regardless of size and location, must steadfastly resist the ferocious and technocratic authoritarian regimes that threaten us all.
Mick Ryan is a retired Major General. He served for more than 35 years in the Australian Armed Forces. Former head of the Australian Defense Graduate School. Author of the book "The New Face of War: the Future Rivalry and Conflicts of the Superpowers of the XXI century".Readers' comments:
grumpyom
If the West does not take decisive and timely action, Ukraine will be bombed back to the Stone Age.
The Russian strategy has changed. Instead of a puppet state as a buffer from NATO, Russia will now have an uninhabited desert.
CaroAnother great article from Major General Mick Ryan.
The way he understands the situation is simply impressive. Knowledge and experience are immediately visible.
GobsmackYeah, but the main message is wrong — it wasn't Russia that fired.
KimThey flooded Ukraine with surface–to—air missiles and other weapons and drove mercenaries there without military service experience - now wait until it all arrives back.
Who can guarantee where all this will turn out to be tomorrow, next year, and so on?
BuckStopsHereThe very fact that Putin does not admit, even at the level of "oh, the mistake came out", suggests that NATO should not tolerate it anymore.
Send troops to the border and give him an ultimatum: let him get out of Ukraine and as soon as possible, before he is kicked out of there.
SporranAnd this will fully confirm Russia's fears about NATO on its doorstep.
And this was the main reason why Putin went to Ukraine in 2014 — and this year in a new way.
GymealadRussians are born liars.
They confuse the trail all the time and cast a shadow on the fence. Poles know them too well, Katyn and the Warsaw Uprising cannot be erased from the people's consciousness!
PajosExactly, man!
How nice it is to realize that our loyal friends Ukrainians are not like that and certainly never lie!
