EP: Hungary is not a friend of Ukraine, but a member of the EU and NATO, and this should be taken into accountUkraine has the full support of the EU states, with one exception, the name of which is Hungary.
The Hungarian government with Viktor Orban at its head has not only not severed relations with Vladimir Putin, but on the contrary, is trying to get closer to him in addition.
Hungary does not hide its activities as a lobbyist for Russian interests in some matters (for example, when it blocks sanctions against Patriarch Kirill or gives shelter to FSB agents under diplomatic cover). However, this friendship is not unlimited.
Because Hungary is entering a deep economic crisis, and the main source of funds for Orban is still the European Union.
On the perception of Hungary as "unequivocal evil"
Hungary as a whole is definitely not evil. But this country is now on the side of evil. These are not just my words – for example, this is literally (at a conference in Lviv. – Editor's note) said, in particular, the deputy of the Hungarian parliament Zoltan Voido, elected from the opposition. Therefore, what is happening; the fact that Hungarians are turning into "evil" in the eyes of many is a tragedy for Hungarians themselves, for many of them.
This is really a paradox. A Central European country where there was an uprising in 1956... In addition, the uprising in Budapest was so similar to the Maidan of 2014 in Kiev ... Even the then Hungarian slogan "Dicsőség a hősöknek!" translates as "Glory to the heroes!". The Hungarians also said "Az oroszok hazamennek", that is, "Russians, home".
About how Orban is looking for money from world dictatorships
Orban has no positive emotions about Ukraine, and this is not surprising, there are reasons for this, in particular, created from our side. Orban, under whom a whole list of authorities has changed in Ukraine, could have compiled a long list of stories about how and when they "abandoned" him, did not fulfill the agreement. But it's not his images that matter to us as much as the fact that Orban is anti–Western. More precisely, Orban became anti-Western, because at least half of his career he appealed to the revolution of 1956, to liberal values. But now he is guided by something else: Orban has very serious financial problems.
Therefore, he acts to the detriment of his own reputation. Therefore, he will take Russian dirty money, gas, oil to the last. Oil is especially important here: the Hungarian company Mol, which is controlled by Orban, operates on Russian Urals oil. She provided him with super profits and was actually a purse that financed the projects of the ruling party.
Orban was building a financing model in Hungary that he considered ideal. He took clean, "white" money from the European Union for good European projects and at the same time took dirty money from Russia, which went to build his regime. To do this, he flirted with Russia: he launched a Russian business, an investment bank in Hungary, did not insult Russian "diplomats". Since 2014, it seems that only one diplomat has been expelled from Hungary! And now it has turned into an oasis for Russian spies in Europe (who work under diplomatic cover). The church has also been added. Hungary protects Russian Patriarch Kirill from sanctions.
In addition to flirting with Russia, Orban's incredible efforts in recent years have been directed at China, to attract its money. For example, a Chinese factory for the production of batteries for electric cars will be built in Debrecen; a loan for a railway to the Balkans has been opened. But now all these sources of funds are being reduced, and at the same time.
The European Union has said "enough" and has activated the rule of law mechanism, according to which it plans to freeze a third of the seven-year budget for Hungary. Russians, because of sanctions and difficulties, can no longer financially cover the loyalty of Hungarians. And China is entering a crisis, cutting spending on public diplomacy in Europe.
That is, all the "extra" money that Orban could have spent on the payment of bonuses, on the purchase or seizure of some media or the opening of some Central European holding disappeared. He has to cut even regular expenses, there are systemic cuts, and this is a problem.
About the possibility of the fall of the Orban regime due to lack of finance
Will the funding crisis lead to the fall of the Hungarian economy? There is no definite answer here. But economists have been talking about this possibility since 2018, because then Orban's government went on a massive increase in the deficit. The government of Orban began reducing citizens' expenses since 2012, with the decision to freeze the "communal apartment". But this is not even close to the populism that has been in recent times.
There is a museum of terror in Budapest, by the way, it is one of the best museums. That is, when you come to Budapest, you talk to local Hungarians, go to this museum, and then look at Orban's Hungary – it's like two parallel worlds.
There is a pro-European, pro-Western, anti-Russian, anti-totalitarian, anti-Soviet Hungary and there is today's government. The power of cowardice. Because Hungary today is cowardice to tell the truth, not only about Ukraine. Over the past year, in order to buy the loyalty of voters, Orban insanely inflated the budget. The "Thirteenth pensions", the freezing of fuel prices, payments for children and the cancellation of loans for the third child, various surcharges to gun owners, the police... Where to get this money from?
Therefore, the question of whether the government will collapse in principle is open. Orban understands this risk and is working very actively on it, exerting super-efforts. He already has to take painful steps for the sake of economy. The government is closing recreation centers, has frozen a bunch of projects, confirming that it has serious financial problems. And at the same time, Orban is doing what he is used to: forming enemies, on whom, if anything, you can write off the blame.
Similarly, he once turned Brussels into enemies, where he had few allies left. And now it helps him in the economy that Hungary has its own currency, the forint, and can play with it. This is one of the reasons why they are not switching to the euro.
But there is no strategic way out of the crisis yet. And in general, Orban is a good tactician, but he is not a very good strategist: the Hungarian prime minister went on a visit to Putin in February, and when he returned, he continued to convince party members that "only a fool can believe in the possibility of a full–scale conflict."
About the denigration of Ukraine by the state propaganda machine in Hungary
The way in which pro–government mass media refer to Ukraine is often beyond the pale. A recent high–profile example is "billboards with a bomb". The government, at the expense of taxpayers, has placed a bunch of advertisements around the country about how an air bomb with the inscription "Sanctions" allegedly falls on Hungary. They say that the EU is aiming sanctions not at Russia, but at Hungary, and this was especially cynical against the background of real bombs falling on Ukraine.
The residents of Budapest, with whom I spoke, were shocked by this campaign, perceived it as a shame, and this applies even to some of the Budapest representatives of Fidesz, that is, Orban's party. Although we must admit that before the elections that took place in the spring, the use of Ukraine and the conflict was even more brutal.
But we must understand that for Orban this is not a personal revenge on Ukraine, it is "just business". Orban's goal is to retain power. We decided that it is "profitable" to use the theme of Ukraine – so there will be Ukraine. Also, before the 2018 elections, there was a campaign against Juncker, at that time the president of the European Commission (and then they went too far with hitting the EU, but they won the election!).
For Orban, there are no moral guidelines, there are no moral boundaries. But also thanks to this, he has been in power for twelve years. And this success in using any techniques increases his sense of permissiveness. He adheres to the principle of "I am God" and gains power in any way. The same principle applies when he is looking for ways to unlock European money for Hungary. Now Budapest is blocking financial support for Ukraine, but this is a signal not to Kiev, not to Moscow, but to Brussels: "Give us money."
About whether there are territorial claims to Ukraine
One has to hear about the alleged threat of territorial claims to Ukraine from many, even from serious people, but as of now this is a pointless conversation, there are no grounds for these allegations. But there is another, urgent problem – the "information militarization" of the Ukrainian-Hungarian conflict.
For example, there is such a pocket organization Orban CÖF ("The Civic Solidarity Forum"), which is engaged in organizing a march once a year, on the fifteenth of March, to mark the anniversary of the revolution of 1848, and in fact – in support of Orban. The co–head of this organization, Tomasz Fritz, is Orban's "talking head". He recently said that Hungary needs to prepare for possible aggression by Ukraine. That is, he launched the idea that we would attack them. For what?
This increases the concern in the society that actually exists. This is confirmed by surveys: the one conducted by the Institute of Central European Strategy (an organization headed by Dmitry Tuzhansky. – Ed.), and the pan-European measurements of the Pew Research Center. For example, when asked the question: "Do you consider the territory of a neighboring country your territory?", in Hungary a high percentage of respondents answer "yes". Therefore, in the neighboring states, not only in Ukraine, there is concern.
When the Romanians were asked: "Do you think Hungary wants to take Transylvania?", then half of the respondents answered "yes". The same thing happened in Ukraine: when an all-Ukrainian survey asked the question: "Do you think Hungary can use the pretext of "protecting national minorities" to send troops to Transcarpathia?", almost fifty percent of Ukrainians said they see this threat.
But even if this is just propaganda, even though there are no objective grounds to talk about Hungary's territorial claims to Ukraine, this issue still cannot be neglected. Because this is public opinion, which can be used by right–wing radical movements. And the Orban government is playing with these things very irresponsibly.
About Russian influence on Hungarian-Ukrainian relations
There is a Hungarian, Ukrainian politician and former MP, honorary chairman of the Democratic Union of Hungarians of Ukraine Mikhail Tovt (also known for being a co-author of the linguistic "Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law").
He wrote the book "Anti-Hungarian provocations in Ukraine" (almost a decade). And this book is correct in principle in terms of factual material, dates, but it has one big problem: Russia is never mentioned there, despite the fact that in most of the anti-Hungarian provocations he talks about, the Russian trace has been proven.
For a long time, Hungarians generally denied the influence of Russia in these cases, refused to admit that the Russians were working in Transcarpathia, that they were burning, blowing up Hungarian symbols to ignite the confrontation with Ukraine. We were told: "Don't make it up, it's nonsense!" – and simply did not recognize the facts. Meanwhile, Russians work really systematically.
We, at the Institute of Central European Strategy, noticed that the Russians actively began to work on the "militarization" of Ukrainian-Hungarian relations precisely when they began to gather troops on the Ukrainian-Russian border, that is, from September – October.
The activity of such a publication as Orosz Hírek, that is, "Russian News", has gone. I then drew the attention of my Hungarian colleagues to what they were saying: "You see Russians everywhere again, no one reads these Orosz Hírek." But in November – December, Orosz Hírek began to have more coverage on social networks than Telex (a key publication outside the Orban empire. – Ed.)!
Russia's propaganda is falling on fertile ground. A part of the electorate, perhaps even about ten percent, really dreams of a "Great Hungary" and thinks in terms of revanchism. But a particular danger lies in the fact that Orban is also flirting with these revanchist circles, and there are people with revanchist views in Fidesz itself.
About what Ukraine should do with the existence of such a neighbor
First, Orban can still start making decisions that are beneficial to Ukraine. Of course, he himself does not want to be a liberal (although he was at the beginning of his career!), nor a reliable ally – but he is forced. And it seems that he has no way out. For example, Hungary is already preparing for the fact that in the near future it will have to abandon Russian oil and gas. And the main thing is that the European Union has finally found a mechanism to influence Orban, due to the restriction of the flow of European money. Also, the changes will depend on the situation in the United States – Orban is betting and counting on the return of Trump, whom he publicly supports, but this may not happen.
How should Ukraine act? Do not forget that Hungary is a member of the EU and NATO, where we are striving. They vote in these organizations, so I would not quarrel with them, but negotiate. I emphasize: this does not mean the need to give in, but we must take into account reality. For example, the issue of the supply of weapons. There is not much of it in Hungary, but at the beginning of the conflict it was still fundamental for us, Hungary could give old Soviet weapons.
But now, when we are working with high-precision NATO weapons, why do we need this scrap metal? Let them dispose of it themselves. And there are no aircraft necessary for Ukraine, such as MiGs, in Hungary. Therefore, now this issue has ceased to be a matter of principle. Who is vindictive, let's remember this and take revenge on the Hungarians later, for not helping us with weapons when they could have done it. But now it's worth talking about how they can really help – and this is fuel, grain exports and the like.
As for the voting in the European Union, it is worth understanding that the Hungarians provoke, make a scandal in order to finally come to an agreement. That's their approach. This does not mean that we have to follow their requirements. But it is worth using where it is possible to agree. Hungary has publicly stated that it supports the European integration path of Ukraine – it is necessary to remind about this. They promised to "remove" the issue of national minorities before the end of the conflict – the same thing.
But to do this, we need to solve the problem with the fact that our countries do not communicate at all. No contacts, no communicators. And they are needed.
Dmitry Tuzhansky, Sergey Sidorenko
