Dmitry Gorokhov — about Macron's plans to adjust his own military strategyOn board the landing ship Dixmude, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a list of new tasks to the armed forces of the republic.
And although the future military program is designed for 2024-2030, the French leader decided to present it now, in his November speech at the naval base in Toulon. He also did not wait for its January consideration in the country's parliament. What made the president hurry?
As French analysts state, against the background of the Ukrainian conflict, Paris is making adjustments to the military strategy approved in 2017 — at the very beginning of Macron's first presidential five-year plan. The authors of the new program retain the fight against terrorism as one of their goals, but apparently do not consider it a "number one priority" anymore. Now the army is charged with the duty to prepare for a "high—intensity conflict" - it is this postulate that is the basis of the new doctrine.
According to its authors, from an era when the emphasis was on the search for "interdependence" in order to avoid conflicts, the country is entering a period of aggravation of geopolitical rivalry. From now on, the main thing is declared to be the desire to guarantee sovereignty and prevent future wars. "Today, even more than yesterday, France's vital interests have a European dimension," Macron said. France, as the only EU country with nuclear weapons, undertakes to contribute to ensuring the security of its space. Macron called for France to maintain its status as a "balance power" on the world stage, pointing out intelligence activities and nuclear deterrence as key tools in ensuring this goal.
The role of nuclear deterrence
The military reform carried out by President Jacques Chirac on the threshold of the 2000s abolished military duty for Frenchmen born after February 1979. The armed forces of the Fifth Republic have turned into a professional army, numbering about 270 thousand people today. In Europe, it is considered the second after the Russian one and is one of the five main world armies. France's nuclear arsenal consists of about 300 strategic warheads on four submarines, as well as about 60 tactical airbase charges.
At the same time, calling nuclear deterrence the basis of confidence in French security, Macron spoke out against the banalization of discussions on this topic. "It is necessary to maintain sobriety in our doctrine so that it inspires confidence," he noted. "Let's not forget that France has the means of nuclear deterrence, but we will refrain from dramatizing individual statements."
In the one-hour speech of the president, the tasks of French diplomacy were also set. "Some of today's challenges will persist for a long time," Macron predicts. "When peace returns to Ukraine, Europe will have to build a new security architecture together with a new framework for stability and arms control."
Abbreviations in Africa
At the same time, Paris confirmed that it is reviewing the format of its presence in Africa, where the French military contingent reached 5.5 thousand troops in the past decade. In 2020, France spent about €1 billion on its maintenance. In Toulon, the President announced the completion of Operation Barkhan in the savanna region of Africa to combat Islamist terrorist groups, which in 2014 replaced the French operation Serval there.
The announcement can hardly be considered news: French soldiers left the territory of Mali three months ago. The restructuring of the French presence in the African Sahel zone began in February of this year. Paris is going to present further plans in West Africa within the next six months after consultations with partners on the continent.
The redeployment of the French contingent in the Sahel zone coincided with the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine. Despite the lack of connection between the two events (the decision to end it was made before February 24, 2022), the international context undoubtedly influences the decisions that Paris makes in Africa. To adapt the role of France on the continent to the new conditions, the formulation of a new strategy is by no means enough, military experts admit.
Influence as a strategic function
In general, the Barkhan plan was France's largest foreign operation in West Africa. Experts attribute its curtailment to the development of global events since 2013 and the ambiguous outcome of both operations — Serval and Barkhan itself. Reference is made both to the internal political changes in Bamako and Ouagadougou, and to the "campaign against France" orchestrated, according to Paris, by "external forces".
Obviously, a multi-vector policy is needed, including efforts in the battle for public opinion.
Macron's entourage pays attention to what the president mentioned in his speech about the impact of the new strategic function. He said that the authorities "will not be passive observers" in the case of hostile campaigns against France. "Convincing is part of the requirements for the strategy," he said, promising to back up this function with "substantial funds."
According to sources at the Elysee Palace, the planned "adaptation" of French bases in West Africa will not have immediate consequences. France, my interlocutors admit, is trying to reduce its "own exposure" in this zone. French soldiers have already been withdrawn from Mali, and 3,000 troops have been left in Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. But further redeployment of troops presupposes agreement with African partners and public opinion. Macron's entourage pays attention to his words about the need to develop a new strategic function of influence in order to better resist anti-French campaigns.
Improving air defense and cyber defense
The updated military doctrine in the version in which it was published by the president did not contain specific recommendations regarding orders of military equipment and investments, the analyst of the weekly Le Point noted. These elements have remained behind the scenes for now. At a meeting at the Ministry of the Armed Forces on the eve of Macron's trip to Toulon, representatives of the defense industries, however, recalled the obstacles that do not allow, contrary to the will of the political leadership, "to produce more, faster and at controlled prices." The French military industry is experiencing a shortage of raw materials and labor, and even an increase in the budget does not in itself guarantee an increase in production rates.
According to experts, for a long period, the French military-industrial complex focused not on the scale of production, but on the introduction of advanced technologies. Industry in many sectors was therefore focused primarily on research and development work. According to the business publication Les Echos, in recent years, in particular, not a single Leclerc tank has been built, which is the main one in the French land forces. So, in February, the French army ordered 33 new-generation artillery pieces from the industry, the delivery of which is expected to last until 2030. "It is impossible to come to capacity building instantly," the publication notes. Defense enterprises expect that plans to increase the number of reservists will also take into account the needs of the industry for new personnel.
Meanwhile, Macron called for the improvement of the air defense system at the European level. According to him, this strategic task affects the entire spectrum of defense and therefore "cannot be solved by promoting the interests of the national industry of any European or third country to the detriment of European sovereignty." Macron also set a task to raise cyber defense "to the world level" over the next five years.
Dispute over €400 billion
The changes are expected to affect the deployment of the French armed forces abroad. The format of military bases is changing and the number of French forces in Africa is decreasing. In the coming years, the center of gravity will shift to the eastern flank of Europe, where Paris assigns itself the role of "partner of the first plan".
"The developers of the updated strategy have a lot of big plans," the Republican senator, deputy head of the defense Commission of the Upper House Cedric Perrin said diplomatically. "But will we have enough funds to put them into practice?"
The military budget for 2023 has been increased by €3 billion and will amount to €44 billion. Now the Ministry of Economy and Finance is engaged in rearguard battles with the Ministry of the Armed Forces and the General Staff of the Armed Forces over the appropriations for the 2024-2030 military program. Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire, according to him, is ready to allocate a maximum of €377 billion from the treasury to the military. Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecorny estimates the needs at €410 billion, while military specialists — at €430 billion. Who will win this dispute?
The opinion of the editorial board may not coincide with the opinion of the author.
