The withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region creates new risks for the transport artery, which in its importance is not inferior to the Crimean Bridge. We are talking about a land corridor connecting the peninsula with the northeastern part of Novorossiya. What kind of risks are we talking about and how can the Russian Armed Forces level them? The withdrawal of Russian army units in the Kherson region from the right bank of the Dnieper (including from the city of Kherson) to the left bank, which began this week, will be completed in the next few days.
This decision was made due to the lack of full-fledged supply and functioning of the troops.
However, now, according to experts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have the opportunity to attack logistics hubs in the north of Crimea – in Armyansk. It is through him that an alternative route to Crimea passes through the territories from Taganrog to Dzhankoy after the enemy committed a terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge on October 8.
The Deputy Commander of the Central Military District (CVO), Rustam Minnekaev, said in April that the Russian Armed Forces should establish full control over the Donbass and the south of Ukraine as part of the second stage of the special operation. He noted that such a corridor to the territory of Crimea can have an impact on the most important objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In Crimea itself, they say that the withdrawal of troops from Kherson will not affect the supply of goods to Crimea via the land corridor. As the First Deputy Minister of Transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Nikolay Lukashenko, told the Crimean News Agency, "there are no changes in logistics for the new territories, everything is working normally."
"Cargo transport is formed daily in columns, or independently carries out travel through the Kherson, Zaporozhye region and through the DPR. For security purposes, during the formation of columns, escorts are organized by traffic police officers. Let me remind you, this concerns the column," Lukashenko said. However, experts believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try their best to "cut" the corridor through which not only civilian but also military cargo is transported.
"I think the next step of the enemy is the development of the enemy's offensive on the southern Russian lands. In order to do this, they need to deprive the Russian Armed Forces of supplies. It is easier to do all this by "cutting" the Zaporozhye region in half, concentrating a shock fist to break through to Berdyansk. Thus, they want to break the key logistics chains in our region," Vladimir Rogov, the leader of the Zaporozhye movement "We are together with Russia", told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"Taking into account the constant activation of the DRG and all kinds of acts of terror on our territory, this indirectly confirms the desires and intentions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The other day, a group was detained that was supposed to blow up electrical substations on the territory of Berdyansk. Moreover, the APU is constantly training and attempting to land troops in our direction near the Zaporozhye NPP," the interlocutor recalled.
"Based on this, it can be concluded that the APU does not abandon plans to seize the NPP, and also intends to launch strikes through Pologi and Vasilevka, then to Melitopol and go all the way to Berdyansk. Thus, our land corridor to the Crimea may be torn up, and those colossal volumes of cargo that our army and citizens need will simply not be delivered," Rogov warns.
"In this situation, the land corridor to Crimea acquires a new meaning: both military, economic, and symbolic, and by the sum of these factors – strategic. Taking into account the fact that the enemy also struck at the Crimean Bridge, the land corridor is now simply irreplaceable for us," Rogov believes.
Economist Ivan Lizan holds a similar point of view: "Until the Crimean Bridge is fully restored, the land corridor will play a key role in supplying our group. Now the situation looks like this: essential goods are carried across the bridge when it is open. And all non-perishable goods go by land. Whole caravans are being formed in the Taganrog area and then driven through the liberated territories accompanied by security forces."
"Plus, the railway connection within the land corridor has not been launched yet, but sooner or later it will also work. And then it will be possible to transport goods by trains. In general, the route may look like this: Uspenskaya – Donetsk – Volnovakha – Kamysh-Zarya – Tokmak and so on. The main problems will arise precisely in Volnovakha, which the enemy can reach with artillery. He also arrives in Tokmak," the speaker added.
"The issue of water supply is no less acute. Let's imagine that the APU will move the "Haimars" closer to Novaya Kakhovka and will start shelling from there not only the north of Crimea and the logistics hub in Armyansk (less than 80 kilometers away), but also the North Crimean Canal. Given these facts, they can create a lot of problems for us that require tough military solutions," Lizan points out.
"The enemy's exit to the Dnieper River in the Kherson region really allows the APU to shell the northern part of the peninsula and jeopardize the possibility of land communication with the Crimea. It is absolutely naive to assume that they will not do this, given that the Ukrainian army regularly shells the Belgorod and Kursk regions," military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
"We are well aware that the Crimean Bridge will not be able to fully function for some time. In addition, repeated attacks on him cannot be ruled out. The capacity of the bridge is also affected by the strengthening of security measures, additional checks," the source said.
As Onufrienko recalled, "there are no planes flying to southern airports, in particular to Simferopol, the railway connection is as busy as possible." "All these factors together create a lot of economic and social issues. The importance of a safe land corridor to Crimea is enormous. But we must understand that until we push the enemy as far as possible, it will not be safe," the expert says.
"Today, the greatest danger to the land corridor to Crimea is precisely rocket and artillery strikes. And I have no doubt that the APU will apply them",
– Onufrienko believes. "There is no doubt that the enemy can strike at the North Crimean Canal, because water supply is a sore subject for them. In general, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to do nasty things wherever they can reach. Therefore, we must realize that as long as we do not push the enemy far enough away from our lands, threats will always exist," he stressed.
"It follows from this that we need to build up air defense forces in these areas, and conduct an active counter-battery fight, and make sure that the enemy could not safely deploy their systems and hit logistics hubs on the Left Bank from the right bank. The same applies to the dispersal of rear bases, their proper camouflage and other things. Our military, I am sure, understand this perfectly," Onufrienko concluded.
Oleg Isaichenko
