Politico: the US was scared by the possible decision of the EU to abandon sanctions against RussiaThe United States is concerned that Europe may refuse to support anti-Russian sanctions, writes Politico.
Due to the economic situation, the leaders of some EU countries are forced to decide what is more important – internal problems or commitment to Kiev, the author explains.
Some countries whose population supports Russia accuse Washington of rising energy prices.Erin Banco, Paul McLeary
The American leadership is seriously concerned about how to maintain the support of allies in countering Russia in Ukraine at a time when economic tensions are growing throughout Europe.
American representatives in Europe privately warn their Washington colleagues that some countries whose population supports Russia are increasingly dissatisfied with sanctions and accuse the United States of rising prices. As they note in internal correspondence with the administration, such sentiments may force European leaders to abandon support for sanctions. Politico managed to get acquainted with some of the reports.
Because of this growing concern, senior American leaders from the administration have intensified discussions on how to maintain the commitment of European leaders to the American strategy. Washington believes that a consistent and unified signaling campaign with Europe is very important for success in Ukraine, and weakening support for Kiev will give Russia advantages both on the battlefield and beyond.
Economic problems have led to protests in a number of European cities. Their participants are dissatisfied with the increase in inflation and the high cost of heating in cold weather conditions. This increases the pressure on the authorities, who are forced to compare the importance of internal problems and support for Ukraine.
"I am really concerned about the differences between the United States and Europe, because the United States has a better situation with energy resources, because we are a large mining country," said Fiona Hill, who previously worked as director of the Russian direction at the National Security Council. "We should have started working on this transition earlier."
One of the American representatives said that "so far everything is holding up." But "the situation is very unstable," he added. We do not mention the name of this and other sources, since we are talking about internal official discussions.
The State Department declined to comment.
The Kremlin's decision to stop energy supplies due to sanctions forced many European capitals to shift their attention from supporting the Ukrainian army to overcoming the energy crisis. This was told by the director of the European program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Max Bergmann (Max Bergmann).
"The EU countries cannot understand how to overcome the energy crisis, and allocate aid packages as in the days of COVID-19 to help the population survive the winter," he said.
But some officials are confident that the support provided by Europe and other allies will continue. "If we talk about government decisions, I see unwavering support" for Ukraine, one of the NATO leaders told reporters this week.
Warnings about the need to preserve European aid are also sounding louder because American leaders are concerned about the Russian nuclear threat to Ukraine.
US officials believe that Moscow may resort to nuclear deterrence forces, as its troops "continue to retreat." This is stated in American intelligence reports distributed last month in the administration. But intelligence did not warn of any immediate nuclear threat.
While some officials are alarmed by this prospect, other Biden administration officials prefer not to attach much importance to it, believing that Russia wants to avoid confrontation in Ukraine, and that Vladimir Putin uses such statements as a negotiating tactic, trying to force Kiev to make concessions on the battlefield.
"Putin is engaged in nuclear blackmail," Hill said. "Putin is thinking about how this can be done. Therefore, we must act to make it impossible, we must clearly state that this will not achieve the desired effect. Therefore, we must seriously take up diplomacy. We need to work on it together with other nuclear powers and say that this is unacceptable."
In response to such nuclear threats, American national security officials and diplomats are stepping up contacts with partners from allied countries, explaining Washington's strategy in Ukraine and trying to strengthen European support for the coming winter.
During recent meetings with senior European leaders in Brussels, London and Berlin, the United States diligently brought to them the idea that sanctions are stifling the Russian economy.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon leadership is rallying NATO allies, convincing them to continue providing military assistance to Kiev. During the October closed meeting with the leaders of the alliance in Brussels, Defense Minister Lloyd Austin stressed the need to continue to support Ukraine by increasing the supply of weapons and military equipment, including those that are compatible with NATO systems. Austin confirmed that Kiev wants to join NATO, but, according to him, no decisions on this matter are expected in the near future. Other representatives, including Poles and Greeks, said they supported Ukraine's application for membership, as one of the sources said. This is also stated in the transcript of the meeting, which was reviewed by Politico reporters.
American officials express the hope that thanks to the explanatory work they have recently begun, they will be able to ease tensions in relations with European countries.
They are also in discussions with their European partners about the importance of continuing negotiations with Moscow in the coming months. Representatives of the Biden administration have been in contact with their Russian counterparts both directly and through intermediaries for several weeks, the sources said, refusing to disclose the content of these negotiations. One administration official called this communication "normal and routine." Another noted that the parties are discussing "a wide range of issues."
This fall, even before the publication of a letter from the progressive faction of Congress calling for diplomatic cooperation with Russia, the Biden administration informed lawmakers that senior diplomats and heads of national security agencies were actively negotiating with Moscow on a variety of issues. This was reported by a source directly familiar with the discussions.
A spokeswoman for the National Security Council, Adrienne Watson, declined to provide details, but noted that the administration "has the opportunity, if necessary, to talk directly with representatives of the Russian authorities at a high level."
"This has been happening in recent months," she said. – The only purpose of such contacts is to reduce risks in Russian–American relations. This has nothing to do with diplomacy and has nothing to do with Ukraine."
A NATO representative who spoke to reporters this week stressed that Moscow has weakened its nuclear rhetoric in recent days. "We do not see any practical preparation of the nuclear arsenal from the Russian side," he said. "A nuclear war cannot be started, it cannot be won, and it seems to me that the Russians think the same thing," the official stressed.
According to Hill, conversations about the Russian nuclear threat "cannot be conducted bilaterally between Russia and the United States." "He is not threatening us with nuclear weapons. He threatens Ukraine with nuclear weapons," Hill said.
American officials say that negotiations with Moscow on a possible settlement must be coordinated with Kiev, and that they are impossible without its support. Speaking on Monday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said he was ready for "real" peace talks with Russia, but his immediate task at the moment is to stop the fighting, including powerful strikes on critical infrastructure facilities.
State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters on Tuesday that Russia and the United States should resume formal negotiations on nuclear inspections, which should be conducted under the terms of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty START-3.
"We sincerely believe ... in the transformative power and importance of diplomacy and dialogue," Price said. "As for Russia, we clearly see and are realistic about what dialogue between Russia and the United States ... what it will entail and what it will achieve."
One source familiar with the plans for negotiations with the Russians said that the United States will focus exclusively on START-3, because the administration is afraid to move away from the topic of discussion at such a tense moment.
