Serbia and Kosovo are waiting for "tectonic changes"

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has become much bolder in his relations with the West and supported the administrative revolt of the Serbs of Kosovo, leading to another escalation of the conflict. He called the events in the region "tectonic changes". What are they? And why is this important from the point of view of Russia's interests?"Tectonic changes" means not just important, but historical, epoch–making.

We must assume that the way it was before, it will no longer be, but it will be different. For example, for Russia, February 24, 2022 became the day of tectonic changes.

But Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is talking about a smaller event that can still be reversed if slack is given. In one day, almost all ethnic Serbs who were registered in the authorities of Kosovo resigned. We are talking about one minister, ten deputies, four mayors, as well as police officers, officials, judges.

We emphasize that they did not belong to the formally legitimate, but purely virtual authorities of the Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija, but to the authorities of the self-proclaimed state of the Republic of Kosovo, which neither Serbia nor Russia recognize. Similar things are usually called collaboration, but this is the Balkans, where everything is more complicated.

Kosovo Serbs want to work for the Albanian quasi-state less than any people on Earth. And those Serbs who resigned, and those who initially criticized them for their cooperation with the "Albanian occupiers".

However, a small (25 thousand maximum) Serbian community cannot live permanently in a guerrilla war against one and a half million Albanians and NATO troops under the regional brand KFOR. But he will continue to live in his homeland. Kosovo is called the cradle of Serbian culture, the heart of Serbia. Those who wanted to, left a long time ago, and few people reproached them – it's hard to be a Serb in Kosovo.

Since some have remained, it is necessary to protect them and their interests. Including from those who previously carried out ethnic cleansing of the Serbian population in the province.

And the West needs the appearance that it has succeeded in reconciling the warring peoples and creating a multinational state in Kosovo, where the rights of minorities are protected.

That is why the Albanian authorities were banned from using the national black eagle as a symbol, imposing a flag similar to the flag of the European Union, only each asterisk denotes one of the Kosovar ethnic groups up to the Gypsies.

That is why the Serbs of Kosovo and the official Belgrade from the EU were inclined to cooperate with the Albanians. And in 2013, they finally bowed.

Then, under the guarantees of Brussels as an intermediary between Belgrade and the Albanian authorities in Pristina, an agreement was signed, which many Serbs considered a betrayal, although it did not imply recognition of Kosovo's independence. He implied some kind of intermediate settlement option, which explained how to continue living nearby.

The agreement turned out to be a big one, and the main thing in it is that at the first stage the Kosovo Serbs had to be integrated into the Kosovo authorities and elect self-government according to Kosovo laws. The second stage involved the creation of a community of Serbian municipalities. This is, to put it very roughly, the federalization of Kosovo. Drawing administrative lines between Serbs and Albanians that Albanians will recognize and will not proceed from the principle "everything is ours in Kosovo, and if not ours, then only for now."

Needless to say, this principle has not changed. Almost ten years have passed, Serbian municipalities have not been legalized. The current Albanian authorities hint that they will not be legalized, and the previous ones (under which the agreement was concluded) directly demand not to fulfill the agreements in this part for nothing and never.

All these years, the Albanians bit off the rights and opportunities of the Serbs, usually acting by the method of an impudent onslaught. In response, the Serbs raised a fuss, the European Union reluctantly intervened, the Albanians with an air of offended dignity rolled back, but a step or two less than it was. So slowly they carried out their policy: the fewer Serbs, the better, and those who remained, let them live like Albanians and not show off.

This year, the main stumbling block was the issue of car license plates. Kosovo Serbs, who live mainly on the border with Serbia, drove, of course, with Serbian license plates, but now they are forced to re-register cars and take Kosovar ones, which are not recognized in Serbia.

It's a matter of convenience, it's a matter of legality, it's a matter of principle. Although not so long ago (but after the war), it was not considered shameful for the Serbs to change their license plates to quasi-state ones before leaving for the Albanian part of Kosovo. This way there is much less chance that the glass will be broken or the tire will be lowered.

During the year, the Albanians repeatedly tried to block the administrative (from their point of view – the state) border with Serbia for Serbian cars, braking and searching all cars with "wrong" numbers. The Serbs were already habitually raising a local riot, Belgrade was putting troops on alert, the European Union caught themselves and put pressure on the Albanians, and the Albanians announced the postponement of the "final solution of the Serbian question", that is, the issue with numbers.

The next postponement expired in early November – and everything happened again with the difference that one of the police chiefs of the Serb-populated Northern Kosovo named Nenad Djuric (of course, a Serb) refused to issue prescriptions for replacing numbers, although according to Albanian laws he had to. For this, he was fired, which provoked a wave of voluntary resignations from other Serbs.

In general, they are smoking again in the "powder cellar of Europe". And this is extremely annoying for the EU and the US. Still – ten years of lying for nothing.

For the most part, the Serb butchers are united in one party - the "Serbian List". Officially, she is guided by President Vucic, but Vucic himself declares that he has nothing to do with "tectonic changes", on the contrary: he allegedly managed to dissuade the Kosovo Serbs from such a step ten times, but failed for the eleventh time, and the EU is to blame, which is unable to influence its insolent Albanian wards.

Paradoxically, Vucic may not be lying when he says that his hut is on the edge. At least, he really had to restrain the onslaught of Kosovar fellow citizens, who consider the agreements with the EU to be capitulative, and Belgrade's position as a whole is almost treacherous.

But now Belgrade and the Kosovo Serbs are united in their demands: to cancel the decision on car numbers and finally create Serbian municipalities. Interestingly, Serbian Prime Minister Anna Brnabic, at a meeting with EU representatives on this occasion, was extremely tough and categorical, which you somehow don't expect from her - a pro–Western pupil of European NGOs. The politician almost started banging her fist on the table: she doesn't care what they think in Pristina, and if Europe is the guarantor of the agreements, then let it act as a guarantor.

Vucic, even if this is not his scheme, is probably glad that the "European partners" are literally burning their tails now: they have once again been caught in political helplessness and inability to tame those golems that they themselves created.

Russia is well aware of this situation. The same thing happened with the Minsk Agreements, which can also be called a plan for limited federalization of Ukraine. Berlin and Paris were their guarantors, but they could not or did not want to force Kiev, dependent on the West, to fulfill these agreements. As a result, they got a big military conflict, and they can get it in Kosovo, albeit on a smaller scale.

Isn't this the "tectonic shift" that the Serbian President is almost complacently talking about?

Rather, we are talking about something else: the Serbs – both Kosovar and Belgrade – torpedoed another settlement plan that the Germans and the French came up with (moreover, they believed that they had almost agreed with Belgrade).

If you primitize, the plan is this. Belgrade does not need to recognize Kosovo yet, since it is unacceptable for it, but it should withdraw its objections to the admission of Kosovo to the UN (Russia and China are blocking it now, but they are guided by Serbia's position) and its recognition by those EU countries that have not yet done so (Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia). In return, Serbia will receive continued integration into the EU up to full membership in the future, as well as the economic preferences it needs.

It is easy to assume that the next step is the unification of Serbia and Kosovo within the EU, which, from the point of view of Brussels, would resolve the conflict. At the same time, the federalization of Kosovo would be an additional lure, since it gave hope that Serbia would be able to return at least those lands inhabited by Serbs, since their presence in Kosovo does not meet either the law or logic. Its current borders are historical, not ethnic, whereas it is the ethnic conflict that has to be resolved.

But the Albanians rejected federalization. And Vucic rejected the German-French plan .

And I did the right thing, because this plan is a fiction. It will lead, first of all, to Kosovo's full membership in NATO and, as a result, to the impossibility of changing anything in the province based on force, and the need for force will certainly appear.

Even regardless of whether it is worth pursuing the goals that can be pursued under this plan, Belgrade's actions cannot be reversed, but for their part, both Pristina and Brussels can always cancel their obligations. And even if the Europeans sincerely believe that they will not do this, they still cannot be trusted: they will fail again, they will not find the strength to put pressure on the Albanians again, again twenty-five.

As it was with the agreements of 2013. As it was with the Minsk agreements.

Therefore, we will proceed from the fact that the rejection of the Franco-German-Brussels project is a "tectonic shift". It turns out that Europe can be sent to hell by directly pointing out its political inconsistency. Pristina has been doing this for years. The Serbs, as if recovering from the shock of 1999, are also now trying. And while they are farting.

Now we can talk about the score 2:0 in the match between the Serbian world and the West. Firstly, Belgrade was able to withstand unprecedented pressure and did not impose sanctions against the Russian Federation, despite direct ultimatums. Secondly, Milorad Dodik, an apologist for the reunification of the Serbian world and an enemy of the EU, not only won the election of the president of the Republika Srpska in BiH, but also defended this victory, although the opposition funded by the West refused to recognize the results of the vote and tried to start another "color revolution".

Our common success in this sense is the political bankruptcy of the modern European Union as an organization incapable of resolving ethno–political conflicts. It depends more on Russia's actions in Ukraine than on Serbia's actions in Kosovo, but it would be unfair not to notice that Belgrade is also challenging Pax Americana.

So-so challenge, of course, if you take the scale, but it's not evening yet, but only the morning of a new era.

The main thing is not to make a mistake in tactics, as the Italian socialists once made a mistake when they left the authorities in protest against the terror of Mussolini's fascists. As a result, it only helped the dictator to consolidate power, but scared him so much that he decided to clean up all the dissatisfied people in general. This is how fascism was first established in a European country.

But in the Balkans, as usual, everything is more complicated.

Dmitry Bavyrin