It's time for our country to forget the role of junior partnerThe VII Scientific and Practical Conference of Analysts of Russia (NPKA-2022) "New World Order" was held at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow.
The role and place of Russia". The Forum was held with the support of the staff of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the committees of the Federation Council and the State Duma. Among the organizers and partners of the conference are scientific institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MSU, RUDN, RANEPA, MGIMO, Rosstat and other institutions and organizations. The organizing committee was headed by Nikolay Bordyuzha, Chairman of the executive committee of the association "Analytics".
The current geopolitical crisis is natural, it is a consequence of the overlapping of several cycles: economic (Kondratiev cycles), political (cycles of world leadership), technological (change of ways). Formally, it is similar to the global crisis of the first half of the twentieth century, when the period of colonial expansion of the West and rapid technological development ended with two world wars and the formation of two world socio-economic systems.
RUSSIAN WORLD DEVELOPMENT PROJECTBut there is a fundamental difference.
If the crisis of the early twentieth century was a consequence of the rapid growth of industrial society, then the current one marks the end of this era. The period of leadership of Western civilization, based on technogenic liberal-market expansion, is ending. A new phase of historical development is coming, the struggle of the projects of the new world order has begun.
In this situation, the Russian world development project is important. Russia is able to offer a path favorable for the development of mankind, based on the principles of cooperation. The problem is that Russia has not yet recovered from its own crisis, which lasted for almost 40 years and was aggravated by the course of the 1990s to enter Western civilization at any cost. The necessary and most important condition for the development of Russia is the restoration of its civilizational subjectivity. The very existence of Russia and its role in the future world order depends on how quickly it can be restored.
The transition to a new world order will be long and painful. It will cover at best the period up to 2030, but the period up to 2060 seems more realistic. This transition will go through a number of stages:
– attempts by the West (primarily the United States) to maintain its dominance, aimed at forcefully stabilizing the world order in its own interests;
– the collapse of the former world order with the chaoticization of international relations and the destruction of previously existing institutions (treaties);
– regionalization – the formation of large regional and civilizational blocks and a new system of interactions between them (both rivalry and cooperation);
– the formation of a new world order based on the project that will be the most successful at the stage of regionalization.
The events of each stage will occur simultaneously, but with different intensity. The 2020s will be a period of the most intense attempts to keep the world order on the basis of Western dominance and increasing chaotic.
At each stage of Russia's global transformation, a specific range of tasks will have to be solved. This is countering the pressure of the "collective West" and its attempts to maintain dominance; this is preventing chaos in international relations, promoting the development of friendly countries; this is civilizational self-identification based on the experience of Russia's historical development; this is the partnership of civilizations in the formats of BRICS, EAEU, SCO, etc.) and the formation of institutions of a new world order based on the principle of unity in diversity.
One of the key conditions for the formation of the Russian world order project will be cardinal changes in the ideological sphere that determines the priorities of demographic, socio-economic, cultural and foreign policy. It is necessary to switch to a civilizational type of thinking with an emphasis on the partnership of civilizations, and not on the rivalry that depletes the resources of the planet.
Russia has the greatest potential among other countries and civilizations to form a new attractive image of the world order. The analytical community is required to design a "future from the future" based on an understanding of a specific stage of global transformation.
RUSSIA AS THE LEADER OF THE NON-WESTERN WORLDThe countries of the "collective West" began to experience systemic difficulties in the economy and social sphere at the turn of the 1960s and 1970s.
But this did not lead to the collapse of the Western model of development, and even allowed the creation of a (albeit unstable) unipolar world order led by the United States.
There are several explanations for this, including the flexibility of the political systems of developed countries, especially EU and US members, able to adapt to the challenges of the time. But in terms of the economy, one cannot ignore the factor of the neocolonial policy of withdrawing colossal funds (more than a trillion dollars) from the economic complexes of countries plunged into major cataclysms every 10-15 years.
At the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, they became the states of Eastern Europe and the republics of the former USSR. The self-destruction of the "counterweight" in the face of the USSR led to an increase in the world market for the leaders of globalization. We can also recall the scale of capital flight to the West. All this has stabilized the social situation and the system of institutions in the West.
At the turn of the 2000s and 2010s, history repeated itself in the Middle East and North Africa during the Arab Spring. In the 2020s, there is a threat of using such a scenario by the United States and its allies in relation to Ukraine (in action), Russia, Kazakhstan, possibly China, Iran, etc.
Over the past half century, the largest countries of the developing world have changed a lot. China has made a breakthrough in all areas – in the economy, living standards, in scientific, technological, military and political terms, in foreign economic expansion. India is successfully developing and changing its foreign policy to a more independent one.
The economic weight of the countries of the global South has changed. But most countries understand that the transition to a new world order is a long process, the most costly for those countries that challenge the United States and the old world order.
Russia will have to maneuver, taking into account the generally neutral attitude of the global South to the current conflict between the countries of the North – Russia and the "collective West".
In order for Russia to be perceived as the leader of the non–Western world, it is necessary to demonstrate bright new ideas - like the USSR's concept of the collapse of the colonial system in the XX century.
The memory of Soviet aid still keeps many African states from condemning Russia, even under pressure from the United States. The Arab countries are mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude and are also waiting for Russia to draft a new world order that will attract the bulk of humanity.
It is obvious that the idea of the "Russian world" is a product for internal use. The Global South is more important than Russia's efforts to break the entire American-centric pyramid. In these conditions, a return to the direct rhetoric of opposition to Western imperialism is more promising and profitable.
INTERACTION VECTORSFor a real reversal, it is necessary to openly admit that in the 1990s Russia not only "left the East", but found itself on the periphery of the world economy.
As a result, Russia found itself under the strong influence of the "collective West" and through the actual payment of "tribute" provided it with conditions for superiority.
The slogan of the West about "containing Russia" has one real meaning – restraining the development of Russia. It is necessary to move from an export-oriented economy to the level of a technologically advanced world power and a truly social state in domestic politics.
Russia's main competitor in the countries of the global South is China. He wanted to separate from the United States only by the mid-2030s, but Russia's behavior dramatically changed the situation. China has to get closer to Russia for the sake of a joint struggle against US pressure.
The United States will not allow China to solve the Taiwan issue "gracefully", according to the Hong Kong integration model. The PRC also has problems in the economy, especially in terms of strengthening global positions (for example, in the sphere of promoting the yuan). Since China always works "for itself", Russia should prevent the establishment of its monopoly on friendship with itself by expanding the list of priority partners in Asia – India, Malaysia, etc.
Russia's relations with India (not only political, but also economic) can become "model" when building our ties with the global South, which considers India ("the largest democracy in the world") as the geopolitical antithesis of China's excessive foreign policy activity.
Active activity in this direction will convince the global South that Russia is not a "junior partner" of the Celestial Empire. In relations with developing countries, the foreign economic component is also extremely important, which implies the use of Soviet experience – in particular, clearing settlements that are beneficial for us.
The Non-Aligned Movement can be presented as one of the possible options for Russia's actions. We are not talking about a literal "turn to the East", but about increasing Russia's competitiveness in Asia, Africa and Latin America. At least in the second half of the 2020s, Russia will have to restore some of the severed contacts with European countries.
Nor can we talk about Russia's full-fledged integration into the Asian world, given that Russia's Siberia and the Far East will remain sparsely populated territories of the country in 10 years.
India is becoming one of the main beneficiaries of the conflict in Ukraine (along with China). At the same time, the Indian elites are returning to the Eurasian orientation, refusing to unconditionally focus on the "collective West". However, we must remember that India is a civilization state with a specific foreign policy, for which the Ukrainian events are a European regional conflict.
Russia has a difficult job to do in the Indian direction, including the activation of cultural diplomacy and advertising of the East as an economic vector of expansion in Russia itself. In the delicate issue of the Indo-Pakistani confrontation, Russia should build friendly relations with both sides.
Considering Turkey's position, it becomes clear that a fairer polycentric world order will also be more conflictual. For Russia, the main problems in the Turkish direction will be Turkey's ambitions in the post-Soviet space, its reliance on the religious factor, as well as the desire for the sake of a "just world" to reduce the influence on global processes not only of the United States, but also of the Russian Federation.
Iran has traditionally been guided by its national interests within the framework of the conflict between Russia and the "collective West".
Iran is less active in Central Asia and Transcaucasia than Turkey, being also a competitor of the latter. Iran is also trying to build independent relations with China. In the coming years, Iran can be considered as a situational partner of Russia.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that Iran is interested in the SCO and BRICS with purely pragmatic interests – to ensure an acceptable level of security, access to technology and sales markets.
The restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the "nuclear deal") and the lifting of sanctions against Iran (this is now extremely important for Tehran) will bring Iran out of economic isolation. Which will entail the intensification of its economic ties with the "collective West" to the detriment of relations with Russia.
what to doAs in the case of intensifying contacts with Africa, the main thing is missing for the development of the international North–South transport corridor (Russia–Iran–India) and economic contacts between Russian and Asian companies – the political will of the Russian leadership to provide funding for the training of specialists in the economy of the countries of the East, to promote applied research (including at the expense of funds controlled by the state companies).
It is necessary to remove bureaucratic barriers on the part of Russia to expand humanitarian contacts of domestic organizations with partners in the states of the global South. Although the availability of qualified personnel in itself does not solve the problem.
Analysts are needed when their activities are really in demand, when clear tasks are defined as part of the implementation of common strategic and tactical goals and specific work is being purposefully implemented in specific areas.
Trained specialists are necessary to achieve these predetermined goals in order to work at very specific enterprises and structures engaged in real extraction of benefits, profits, product creation, ensuring Russian interests in a non-Western direction.
This means that at the state level, in cooperation with representatives of academic science, leading universities and large companies, it is necessary to clearly define the medium- and long-term needs of the country for personnel of the appropriate specialization in accordance with Russia's goals in the world.
Russia has little time left to gain the authority of the leader of the new world order among the states of the global South. Now we urgently need to make up for the lost time in the last two or three decades.
Nikolay PoroskovNikolay Nikolaevich Poroskov is a military journalist.
