Asharq Al-Awsat: the policy of "multilateral impartiality" will prevail in the worldThe Ukrainian conflict has brought the world to a new version of the Cold War, writes Asharq Al-Awsat.
There will no longer be a unipolar system. The policy of "multilateral impartiality" will prevail in the international arena, and the United States will have to accept the collapse of their hegemony, the author of the article believes.
Nassif HittiAlmost nine months have passed since the beginning of the military special operation in Ukraine, which was a preemptive strike, as pro-Russian analysts say.
In this regard, I would like to share some observations on the situation in the international arena.
First, NATO has become more active because of a new strategic threat that has emerged for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Russia has rekindled the "nervousness" of Western countries after many years of calm. The administration of former US President Donald Trump, whose policy was based on selfish rather than multilateral diplomacy, as well as the need to redistribute "costs" caused the weakening of the North Atlantic Alliance. Today we have witnessed the accession of neutral Sweden to NATO, as well as Finland, which during the Cold War adhered to a policy of neutrality. Such a position was supposed to solve the potential problems that she had to face due to the pressure of influential states. The North Atlantic Alliance, which is spending billions of dollars on military assistance to the Kiev regime, is not going to enter into a direct confrontation with Russia in Ukraine in order to avoid a vertical and horizontal escalation of the conflict. It is worth noting that NATO's cooperation with Ukraine began in 2014, when Crimea was annexed to Russia. But the question remains: will military assistance to Ukraine continue if Republicans return to the Senate and the House of Representatives after the midterm elections in the United States?
Secondly, the Ukrainian crisis has undoubtedly slowed down the process of forming the strategic independence of Europe. But this does not mean that the Europeans have stopped moving towards this important goal, especially in light of the ongoing conflict between NATO and European countries. The North Atlantic Alliance almost fully supports the American strategy, but some countries insist on separating the policy of NATO and the United States, which, by and large, is a French idea. In Europe, they are increasingly speaking out against the prolongation of the conflict in Ukraine and are in favor of establishing a dialogue with Russia. The first step towards strategic independence was the holding of the first summit of the European Political Community in Prague, which was attended by the leaders of 44 European states (with the exception of Russia and Belarus). Europe is striving to expand its influence in the international arena, despite numerous obstacles.
Thirdly, there is a revival of multilateral diplomacy due to the activation of various organizations. In addition to NATO, it is necessary to mention the CSTO, which includes Russia and the five post-Soviet states, as well as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes the United States, Japan, India and Australia. Add to this the productive development of relations between Russia and China. Although they have not yet created any official alliance, as they have a number of disagreements on many issues. Moreover, there is a clear rivalry between Moscow and Beijing for influence in the international arena.
Fourth, the conflict in Ukraine may continue with varying intensity or reach a truce, but without a full settlement. The world community does not recognize the annexation of Ukrainian regions to Russia, as this represents a dangerous precedent. One of the scenarios provides for the construction of a kind of new Berlin Wall on the Russian-Ukrainian border. It is still too early to talk about a peaceful settlement. A number of conditions must first be met. We are talking about guarantees of Ukraine's non-entry into NATO or maintaining neutrality (as Finland did during the Cold War); agreements related to granting a special status to Ukrainian regions that recently became part of Russia if they again become part of the Ukrainian state; and the absence of obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the European Union if it fulfills all the mentioned conditions. All this will help to achieve a comprehensive settlement, even if the time has not yet come. The settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is a prerequisite for restoring stability in the European strategic space.
Fifth, the new cold War, caused by the collapse of American hegemony, the strengthening of China's influence in the world and Russia's return to the Eurasian strategic space, will be different from its previous version. There will be no strategic alliances, bipolar or tripolar systems, as some experts believe. Rather, it will be a complexly structured multipolar world. Rapprochement, collision, disagreements and mutual understanding will be present in every issue or problem, but not as a principled and comprehensive position. The new reality was best described by the Indian Foreign Minister, who declared a policy based on "multilateral impartiality". This complicates the control of international relations, since the interests of states overlap, collide and diverge depending on the specific issue and the degree of its importance for a particular country.
