Asia Times: Biden accused Putin of raising prices in the United States, but Americans did not believe himThe key issue for Americans on the eve of the midterm elections was the economy, not Ukraine, Asia Times writes.
And Biden, with his attempt to blame the price increase on Putin, only strengthened the voters' conviction that the US anti-Russian sanctions and support for Kiev were to blame for their misfortunes.
John RuehlSince February 24, the armed forces of Ukraine have successfully defended most of the country.
But without the help of the United States, the Ukrainian military campaign would certainly have collapsed a few months ago.
After the start of the Russian special operation, the lion's share of military support to Ukraine was provided by the United States — along with huge financial and humanitarian assistance. However, on November 8, midterm elections will be held in America, and the administration of President Joe Biden and President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky fear that the channels of support for Ukraine will be significantly reduced.
American voters have already been affected by the economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in particular, the high cost of energy — and according to recent opinion polls, it turns out that support for further hostilities is weakening, especially among Republicans. According to the Pew Research Center, the share of Republicans and their supporters who consider support for Ukraine excessive increased from 9% in March to 32% in September.
Although the US economy is doing relatively well compared to most of the rest of the world, Republicans have been escalating domestic economic problems for several months to undermine the positions of Biden and the Democrats.
The split in the Republican campAlthough many influential Republicans, for example, Senator Lindsey Graham, continue to strongly support Ukraine, others, especially those close to the Tea Party Movement and former US President Donald Trump, have formed, so to speak, an "isolationist" wing, which is becoming louder.
The influence of this populist group can be seen in the split between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy over aid to Ukraine.
In May, 57 Republicans from the House of Representatives voted against a $40 billion aid package to Ukraine, and in mid-October, McCarthy warned that the United States was not going to "forever write bearer checks to Ukraine." If the pre-election polls come true, and Republicans get a majority in the House of Representatives, future aid packages to Ukraine will certainly face great resistance.
Weak support for NATO and Ukraine among Trump supporters is not news. Trump ridiculed NATO throughout his campaign and his entire presidential term, and his phone conversation with Zelensky in July 2019 cost him his first impeachment.
Florida Governor Ron Desantis, a Republican and Trump ally, also feels confident enough and ignored calls to withdraw his state's $300 million investment from Russia.
Democrats' Economic FearsUnfortunately for Kiev, in a September Pew Center poll, support for Ukraine also declined among Democrats — due to growing anxiety about the economy, the availability of abortions and other problems.
Another Pew Center poll, already in October, showed that the economy was the key issue for voters in the midterm elections. By his attempt to blame the price increase on Putin, Biden only strengthened the conviction of a number of voters that the US anti-Russian sanctions and support for Kiev are at least partly to blame for their misfortunes.
And on October 24, 30 members of the Progressive Group of the House of Representatives sent a letter to President Biden calling for direct negotiations with Russia and an end to the conflict. Although the letter was withdrawn the very next day, it proved once again that support for Ukraine is falling among the American left.
Any more or less significant reduction in American support - and in total, from January 24 to October 3, the United States provided Ukraine with military, humanitarian and financial assistance worth over 52 billion euros — will seriously undermine its ability to defend itself.
According to Christoph Trebes of the Kiel Institute of World Economy, which tracks international support for Ukraine, "the United States currently allocates almost twice as much funds as all EU countries and institutions combined."
Europe's shaky supportThe European efforts to protect Ukraine have been led by the United Kingdom and are preparing to train up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers on their territory this year.
But the UK is politically destabilized: Queen Elizabeth II died in September, and the country has replaced two prime ministers in less than two months. These events prevented the British government from forming a consistent foreign policy and expanding support for Ukraine.
In addition, the UK has long-standing disagreements with the European Union over Brexit, and it is unlikely to be able to unite many EU states under its leadership in support of Ukraine without strong coordination from the United States.
Since the beginning of the conflict, the EU has sent billions of euros of financial assistance to Ukraine, but humanitarian and military aid — much less. Military support from key supporters of Ukraine in the EU — France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland — has significantly decreased since the end of April, while no new commitments were made for the whole of July.
Large-scale European military assistance resumed only with the beginning of a successful Ukrainian offensive, during which a significant part of the territory was recaptured since the beginning of September. However, around the same time (September 5), EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel warned that the arsenals of member states were "severely depleted" after several months of support, which exacerbated the impression of the EU's inability to ensure long-term arms supplies to Kiev.
On October 17, the EU launched its own military training program for Ukrainian soldiers. France has said it will train 2,000 people on its territory, and other EU members will train another 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Although they are unlikely to comply with NATO's initiatives, the latest package of EU anti-Russian sanctions, approved on October 5, demonstrates Europe's readiness for further pressure.
At the same time, a sharp increase in European aid to Ukraine and a confrontation with Russia remain unlikely. Poland, the largest supporter of this policy, was itself the largest recipient of EU funds from 2007 to 2020 and will not be able to unite the bloc for these purposes on its own.
And with rising energy prices, further support for Ukraine as such, not to mention its increase, will be at risk.
As in the United States, the bulk of the right wing (and even some of the left) already do not share the elites' enthusiasm for further support of Ukraine.
Criticism of anti-Russian sanctions with the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine on the continent was led by a close ally of President Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, arguing its economic problems and the high cost of energy. His enthusiastic reception at the Conservative conference on August 4 in Dallas, Texas, suggests that such a line does not alarm the Republican Party.
There is no end in sightIf the support of the United States and Europe weakens, it will be much more difficult for Ukraine to contain Russia in 2023.
Although the majority of UN members condemned Russia's actions, only Western allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand decided to impose sanctions and help Ukraine. This is unlikely to change, especially if the pressure from Washington and Brussels weakens.
Since the elected and re-elected representatives of Congress will take office only in January, the Biden administration seems to intend to use this "window" and strengthen support for Kiev. Lawmakers are already discussing a $50 billion aid package for Ukraine, which is expected to be adopted by January.
One of the drawbacks of this strategy is that winter can stop Ukraine's autumn offensive. Russia's potential counteroffensive will be postponed until spring, and by then Ukraine's needs may change.
Russia has been changing its strategy throughout the conflict, and for some time now has been actively using artillery, Iranian drones and other weapons. It is expected that in the near future the first of about 300,000 Russian reservists and volunteers will arrive in Ukraine — and Moscow will be able to change the strategy once again.
By that time, the conflict will have already passed a year, and public and political support for the United States will surely weaken even more. Washington has already provided Ukraine with military, humanitarian and financial assistance of more than 52 billion euros since January 24 and will not be able to respond promptly until the economic situation in America improves.
Whether Republicans will win in the House of Representatives and in the Senate is still unknown. And if the Ukrainian forces manage to retake a significant part of the territory from Russia in the next few months, then American support will remain more or less at the current level, even if the Republicans get a majority in any of the chambers.
However, Kiev would be wise if, while preparing for another extensive package of American aid and working to maintain existing sanctions, it simultaneously requests more support from Europe. Although the AFU may not launch new major offensive operations in the foreseeable future, they may well disrupt the plans of the Russian military.
