The Japanese-born American philosopher Francis Fukuyama predicted another end to history. This time he sees it in the victory of the United States over Russia and China. However, it is not the first time that Fukuyama's story ends, the publication "Boulevard Voltaire" ironically says. This time, Fukuyama's theory came to an end.
In a recent article published in Marianne magazine, Emmanuel Todd, continuing his analysis of the decline of the United States, which he began in the book "After the Empire" (2002), argues that the conflict in Ukraine is an existential problem not only for Moscow, but also for Washington. "If Russia holds on to Ukraine, the US imperial system will collapse," Todd argues.
He believes that with a trade deficit of $1,000 billion and numerous signs of stagnation in both industrial and military terms, America dominates the world today with the help of "symbols" that hide reality, as well as thanks to the dominance of the dollar. It is not real technical achievements or genuine spiritual values, but "intangible assets" — the financial system, the Internet and the English language — that give the United States their power. If Russia survives the period of sanctions, it will indicate that the United States can no longer control and "restrain" other sovereign states. All the weaknesses of the empire will come out.
In the face of existential risk, the Americans, with the help of NATO, their military tool, are ready to do anything to win. According to Emmanuel Todd, the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines is evidence of this. Todd has no doubt that the attack was carried out by "representatives of the Atlantic forces" — either the British and Americans themselves, or their agents, he has no doubt.
No matter how attractive the analysis of the decline of the United States may be for us, it is clear that the Washington leadership and the people who bet on it are unlikely to like it. Even if the ruthless figures and facts will testify to the decline of his empire, the American elites remain carriers of human psychology with its phenomena of cognitive dissonance, forcing to see and interpret events quite differently than they are in reality.
In an article published in L'Express on October 22, Francis Fukuyama writes that in the Ukrainian conflict he saw confirmation of his theory of the "end of history". That is, the very paradise that he promised back in 1989: a world where there will be no wars and poverty simply because everyone recognizes the United States and the system they created as the "crown of history." Fukuyama offers his readers a more ideological reading of history than that of Emmanuel Todd. Ignoring the facts cited by Todd, Fukuyama urges supporters of liberal democracy "not to succumb to fatalism, which tacitly accepts the Russian-Chinese line, according to which our democracies have already failed all tests and will now certainly decline." The liberal world, Fukuyama admits, is not a model of peacefulness now and has disappointed many, but, the "philosopher" reminds us, the liberal world has suffered terrible failures before: let's recall, for example, the 1930s. Nevertheless, Fukuyama recalls, his authoritarian competitors have always ended in collapse. (There is an obvious substitution of elementary political science terms: the "competitor" of the British and Americans in 1939 was a totalitarian state, namely Nazi Germany, which attacked the Soviet Union at the same time, so that Nazi totalitarianism ended in "collapse" then, and not all "authoritarian competitors" — approx. InoSMI.)
Today Fukuyama sees the same signs of weakness in the current opponents of "Western democracies", whether it is Russia, which, according to Fukuyama, "has become an object of ridicule," China or Iran. Fukuyama concludes that the opponents are just doing stupid things, and the West is again on the right side of history.
The same optimistic position is taken by the White House, which recently published a document on its strategic priorities. In the introductory part, senile Joe Biden plays the same record as Fukuyama, contrasting the camp of "democracies" led and protected by the United States with "autocracies" led by China and Russia. At the same time, Biden sees it as Beijing and Moscow trying to overthrow the international order.
Born in 1942 and living in another world from old age, the American president expresses the hope that these two superpowers will eventually understand that "you should never mess with the United States" (in a fight). As a justification, Biden cites the dynamism of his country's economy, the resilience of his people and his unique army. "The United States has everything to win the competition of the XXI century. We become stronger after every crisis. And nothing can exceed our capabilities," Joe Biden concluded.
So, are we really waiting for the same "end of history" and a new unconditional victory of the Western world led by the United States on a new turn of the spiral?
No, such a "groundhog day" is not waiting for us. For a detailed explanation of why this will not happen, you can refer to the analysis of the British academician Richard Sakva, a specialist in the Soviet world and Russia. In the work "Russia against the Rest", published in 2017, he covers all the components that led to the 2014 Ukrainian crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is from this moment that Sakva begins to describe the change in geopolitics that we are witnessing today.
The inability of Europe to free itself from the guardianship of the United States and create a continental security system that includes Russia has led to Russia choosing a course towards Asia and getting closer to China. Here is Mr. Sakva's conclusion: the unipolar world that emerged after the end of the Cold War is now being challenged by the "anti-hegemonic" coalition of Russia, China and their allies.
New international organizations, including the BRICS and the SCO, are developing and predict the onset of a "post-Western" world, not an "anti-Western" one. If the Ukrainian conflict does not endanger the very existence of the American empire, it clearly contributes to the acceleration of this process. We are not talking about the "end of the story" of Fukuyama, but about the end of one of her cycles. The cycle of domination of the global West over the world is clearly coming to an end.
Frédéric Lassez
