Foreign Policy: The EU is concerned about the vulnerability of its underwater infrastructure in the northern seasEurope is concerned about the vulnerability of its "soft underbelly" — the underwater infrastructure in the northern seas of the continent.
The author of an article in Foreign Policy magazine reports that the NATO bloc had to increase its military presence in the Baltic and North Seas, although sabotage occurred on those parts of the pipelines that belong to Russia.
Amy Mackinnon
Christiana Lu (Christina Lu)Amid rising tensions with Russia, the September explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea exposed the vulnerability of Europe's key energy and communications infrastructure in the northern seas of the continent.
Swedish and Danish investigators believe that it took "several hundred kilograms" of explosives to make such huge holes in the underwater pipelines that lead from Russia to Germany and run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Although suspicion immediately fell on Moscow, which sought to use its influence on the continent in the field of energy supplies — and which wants to deprive Europe of energy this winter — investigators from Sweden, Denmark and Germany have yet to determine who exactly was behind the attack. Moscow denies its involvement.
These explosions had a rather weak impact on the current situation with energy security in Europe. In July, the Kremlin suspended gas supplies via the Nord Stream–1 pipeline for ten days, citing technical difficulties, and the certification process of Nord Stream–2 was frozen by the German side a few days before the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine. However, the fact that an obvious act of sabotage could have occurred in the busy Baltic Sea, which is surrounded by NATO member countries, as well as potential members of this bloc, such as Finland and Sweden, indicates difficulties in protecting Europe's vast northern sea routes, where key energy infrastructure and communication networks are located. "70% of all energy in the world is either at sea or moved by sea, and 93% of all data in the world is transmitted via underwater cables," said Bruce Jones, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "Our ability to protect these paths and facilities is extremely limited."
On Tuesday, November 1, Norway, which has now become the largest supplier of natural gas to the EU countries, as Brussels seeks to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy carriers, raised the alert level due to a mass of reports that drones without any identification signs appear near its offshore energy facilities. In addition, the authorities arrested seven Russian citizens for operating drones and photographing secret objects. Meanwhile, the Norwegian Embassy in Washington reported that security measures and surveillance of energy and oil facilities have been strengthened.
"This is the most difficult security situation in the last few decades," Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said on Monday. "There is no evidence that Russia is expanding its military adventure to other countries, but the increase in tension makes us more vulnerable to various threats, intelligence operations and influence campaigns."
After the sabotage, the NATO alliance increased its air and naval presence in the Baltic and North Seas, and Germany, France and the United Kingdom offered Oslo assistance in monitoring the energy infrastructure in the North Sea. In early October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised to conduct a "stress test" of the energy and communications infrastructure for weaknesses, noting that the explosions at Nord Streams (a controlling stake in its parent company belongs to the Russian energy giant Gazprom) "showed how vulnerable our energy infrastructure is."
Experts in the field of naval affairs were not surprised that the gas pipeline threads became the target of a planned attack, despite the fact that the Baltic Sea was recently dubbed the "NATO lake". According to them, even in a small area it is almost impossible to constantly observe the full picture of what is happening above and under water. "Even a relatively small sea is awfully big," Jones said.
The armed forces of NATO countries have repeatedly warned that the seabed of Europe is its "soft underbelly", as recalled by Julian Pawlak, a researcher at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Hamburg, Germany.
Moscow's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 was followed by a sharp surge in the activity of Russian submarines near submarine cables in the North Atlantic. This activity of Russia became one of the main topics for discussion at the meeting of NATO defense ministers in 2020, as members of the alliance were concerned about the likelihood that Moscow could damage submarine cables. The June report, prepared on behalf of the European Parliament's subcommittee on Security and Defense, states that, although submarine cables represent the "backbone of the global economy", since they provide the vast majority of global communications, including daily financial transactions worth ten trillion dollars, "the European management of the cable protection and safety system is still lagging behind and needs improvement."
Although the Russian armed forces face difficulties in trying to move forward in Ukraine, despite the relative advantage in size, Moscow has long used a wide range of different forms of intelligence activities, including disinformation, political interference and assassinations, in an effort to weaken and divide Europe.
"A major act of sabotage in the middle of the Baltic Sea, as well as many other things that are happening now, is a reminder that we live in a completely different world compared to what it was back in January," said one European official, who asked to keep his name secret.
As Russia's ability to take advantage of energy influence in Europe weakens due to the fact that the continent is struggling to diversify supplies, Moscow, according to experts, may increasingly resort to other methods of conducting asymmetric warfare in order to continue to exert pressure. "Gazprom and Russia no longer have leverage that would allow them to cause economic damage in terms of gas supplies," said Henning Gloystein, an energy expert at Eurasia Group. "They need to move forward if they want to continue to cause pain and to some extent maintain the vulnerability of Europe."
According to Jones, Moscow has the most advanced program for the development and deployment of submarines after the United States, and the Ukrainian conflict has practically not affected its submarine fleet in any way. "They have modern means to listen and capture underwater data cables. Undoubtedly, they have the means to organize sabotage on underwater pipelines and the like," he said.
Although Russia has proved that it does not hesitate to demonstrate its forces in the northern seas of Europe, Gloystein noted that the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines occurred in the part of it that belongs to Russia. He doubted that Moscow could take a serious risk and provoke a forceful response by sabotaging the pipelines of a European state or a NATO member. In January, the head of the British armed forces, Admiral Tony Radakin, warned that any attempts to disable submarine cables would be considered an "act of war."
Such an attack on European pipelines could entail "the application of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, because it would be a direct attack on members of the European Union or NATO," Gloystein explained. "We still think it's unlikely," he added.
