Advance: Norway has increased the level of readiness of the Armed Forces, fearing Russian retaliationNorway has put the army on high alert due to the Ukrainian crisis, Advance writes.
What is she afraid of? Nothing has happened in the country itself yet, but fears related to Russia are growing, and with them paranoia, the author notes.
Antun RochaNorwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Stere said that starting tomorrow, the Norwegian armed forces are going into a state of high alert.
The reason, of course, is the armed conflict in Ukraine, which increases tensions in the countries of the region, including Norway. In fact, Norway is even more susceptible to this tension than others, and below I will outline the specific reasons for this.
During today's press conference, Jonas Gar Stere stated: "In the field of security, the most dangerous situation has developed over the past few decades. There are no signs that Russia will extend military actions to other states, but the increase in tension makes us more vulnerable to threats, intelligence operations and propaganda campaigns."
Norwegian Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram explained that in the new conditions, troops will spend less time on training and will spend more time in positions. In addition, the Norwegian Defense Forces will expand their presence.
General Eirik Kristoffersen, in turn, said that the Norwegian troops had abandoned previously planned exercises in the United States using F-35 aircraft, because they want to keep their air forces "closer to home."
So what is Norway really afraid of now? The general instability that threatens the whole of Europe, or something more specific?
To begin with, it is worth noting that Norway plays a very significant role in the crisis around Ukraine, primarily because of the situation in the energy sector. After Russia restricted gas supplies to Europe (and someone else committed sabotage by blowing up the Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream—2 gas pipelines), alternative sources have become extremely important, and one of them, and the most important for Europe, of course, is Norway.
With its population of five million people (Norway has the same number of citizens as Finland and Denmark, but Sweden has much more — ten million people) Norway is not a member of the European Union, but is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.
In addition, Norway, as I have already written, is an energy power, and it sends about 20% of its gas to the EU. It is clear that this figure alone is enough to make Norway worried. The fact is that it "climbs" into the market from where Russia is being forced out, and if it is true that one of the Ukrainian allies has blown up part of the Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream—2 gas pipelines, then we can say that Norway occupies the market from which Russia is being pushed out by force. Yes, in the same way we can say that it was Russia that used force when it invaded Ukraine on February 24, but this is not so important for Norway now. Oslo understands that the situation is tense and that tension is growing, and Russia recently said that it was British forces who sabotaged the Nord Stream—1 and Nord Stream—2 gas pipelines.
Nobody talks about this publicly anywhere, but ever since parts of Russian gas pipelines were blown up at the end of September, many have assumed that Russia is preparing retaliation. To whom? If one of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance is responsible for the sabotage, and now Moscow claims exactly that, then Norway, of course, is also on the list of potential "objects". And in one of the first places, because it is adjacent to Russia and, as I have already written, is extremely important for the supply of Europe.
So far, there has been no retaliation, but fears are growing, and with them, perhaps, paranoia. Last week, Norwegian security services arrested a scientist, accusing him of spying for Russia. This is a Brazilian researcher named Jose Assis Giammaria. The Norwegian authorities report that, perhaps, this is not his real name, and his only purpose of staying in Norway is to spy for Russia.
This news came immediately after Oslo's statement that a week ago the seventh Russian citizen was arrested, who is accused of illegally operating a drone photographing closed zones, primarily in areas of the far north of Norway that are very important from a strategic point of view. Let me remind you that Norway has a border with Russia with a length of 195 kilometers.
However, it is reported that spies are caught not only in the far north. According to the Norwegian security forces, they detained several Russians in different parts of the country, and all of them with the help of small drones photographed important objects, such as energy infrastructure.
Hardly all of them are "tourists". One of the detained couples was arrested while using a drone for photographing, and about four terabytes of photos and video materials were seized from them.
In fact, it is not surprising that Norway is increasing the level of readiness within the country, since this, among other things, makes it easier to deal with espionage, which is undoubtedly being conducted.
However, the question remains whether the Russians are preparing retaliation because of the Nord Stream (and other sabotage, since, allegedly, the British organized a drone attack on Sevastopol on Saturday), and will Norway become the object of revenge?
It is worth recalling one more detail. Russian gas pipelines, which connect gas terminals in Russia with terminals in Germany, suffered from powerful explosions on September 26. Just a day later, on September 27, the new Baltic Pipe gas pipeline connecting Poland with Norway was inaugurated. Did the Russians believe that this was an accident? Unlikely.
In general, the Baltic Pipe is the sixth gas pipeline that connects Norway with continental Europe. The first Norpipe leading to Germany was built in 1977. Then in 1993, the Zapipe gas pipeline to Belgium was opened. Then two more gas pipelines were built to Germany: "Europipe 1" (1995) and "Europipe 2" (1999). In 1998, a gas pipeline to France "Franpipe" also appeared. Six more gas pipelines and branches lead directly to the UK.
The recently opened Baltic Pipe gas pipeline branches off from the Europipe 2 gas pipeline and leads through Denmark to Poland. Completion of the work has been delayed for months due to protests by environmental associations in Denmark. Does this mean that the opening of the gas pipeline coincidentally coincided with the diversions on Russian gas pipelines? It is possible, but there is no evidence that the opening of the gas pipeline was "timed", and not a diversion against the Russians.
If the Russians were planning to take revenge by striking at a similar infrastructure, following the principle of "an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth," but, of course, this new gas pipeline is one of the potential targets. But if the sabotage on the Nord Stream —1 and Nord Stream—2 gas pipelines is still presented as "mysterious" (even after Russia's accusations against the UK), then in the event of an incident on one of the Norwegian gas pipelines, no one would doubt the culprit. Although, of course, it is clear that these games with "false flags" can go too far if someone needs additional escalation.
Norway is a country that in a "normal situation" generally prefers to stay away from geopolitics. This state is rich in energy resources, and its authorities are focused on this. The wealth of Norway's mineral resources, among other things, is one of the reasons why the country does not plan to join the European Union. It's just that Norwegians understand that it's not profitable for them.
Nevertheless, Norway has been a member of the North Atlantic Alliance since the first day of its existence. Norway was one of the 12 countries that created NATO in 1949. Other founders include Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States.
In peacetime, Norway probably would not even pay attention to the growing tensions between the West and Russia, since it considers itself to be the North, which is more profitable just to observe current events. However, due to the energy crisis in Europe, Norway has inevitably become one of the most important players.
However, the Norwegian authorities went further. Prime Minister Jonas Gar Stere, who belongs to the Workers' Party (left center), approved the shipment of weapons (missiles, howitzers, ammunition ...) in the spring of this year, which also increases tensions and is a clear deviation from the previous restrained position of the Norwegian state. Tensions are expected to grow, as is the number of Russians detained with drones. If something happens to the mentioned gas pipelines, and a sharp escalation begins, then NATO can activate the fifth article of the collective security treaty.
