Politico: the Ukrainian leadership is afraid that after the elections, the United States will cut economic aidThe Ukrainian leadership is confident that the current volume of military aid from the United States will remain even after the midterm congressional elections, Politico reports.
The authors of the article write that Kiev is more worried about economic support from the States.
Alexander Ward and Nahal ToosiVladimir Zelensky and his team believe that military aid will continue to arrive as before.
They are more concerned about economic assistance.Ukrainian officials warn Republicans who may gain a majority in Congress in the near future:
to defeat Russia, it is not enough to supply weapons. We need more money for the Ukrainian economy.
Ukrainian leaders believe that despite the notes of dissent on the edge of the right flank, the congress under the leadership of the Republican Party will not refuse to provide military assistance to Kiev. In fact, experts on Ukraine are waiting for an increase in arms supplies if the Republicans take the helm, as told by the lobbyist of the Ukrainian government, Daniel Vajdich.
Ukrainians are more concerned about something else. They fear that Republicans will cut economic aid to Kiev in the future. The United States has already transferred billions of dollars of such assistance to Ukraine, but even more funds will be needed in the coming months and years, especially if Russia continues to damage Ukrainian power plants and other infrastructure facilities.
President Vladimir Zelensky and his aides know that after the midterm elections, various problems may arise, which did not exist before, Vaidich said. "Kiev understands that they will have to work with the Republicans, explaining that assistance to Ukraine cannot be limited to guns alone," he said. She will need the money to eliminate the budget deficit, she will need help in restoring the energy sector and civilian facilities, such as schools, for example.
Ukrainian officials and their representatives in Washington directly tell lawmakers about this.
Vaidich's comments provide an opportunity to understand the political strategy of the Ukrainian leadership in conditions when Republicans and Democrats exchange barbs on the eve of the midterm elections. The Government of Ukraine believes that discussions with Washington on assistance will become more complicated in the context of deepening partnership between Washington and Kiev, and American politicians will be forced to convince voters of the need to continue to provide assistance to Ukraine provided since the beginning of the Russian military operation.
Thanks to the support of both parties in Congress, the Ukrainian government received a large number of weapons and military equipment, including the Haimars multiple launch rocket system. Ukrainians, led by Zelensky, often turn to American lawmakers to put pressure on the Biden administration and insist on the supply of certain weapons systems, in particular, long-range missiles (although the White House has so far refused to supply such missiles and other weapons that Ukraine wants to receive).
Funds for military aid to Ukraine have attracted the attention of the minority leader in the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, who may become the new speaker in this legislative body. He recently said that if the Great Old Party wins, Kiev will not receive "carte blanche". It was an obvious curtsey to a small but vociferous group of Republican populists from the House of Representatives who want to cut or stop aid to Ukraine altogether, and instead focus on solving internal problems. But then McCarthy tried to ease the heat of passion that he caused with his statement.
One senior administration official said Biden's team is not worried about the prospect of cutting aid to Kiev if Republicans win in both houses of Congress.
Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell constantly says that the Republican Party should increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine. The administration also expects that the majority of Republican members of the House of Representatives will force McCarthy to keep the chosen course. This was told by a representative of the White House, who asked for anonymity because it is about discussing confidential issues.
The scandal over a letter from members of the progressive faction of Republicans about Ukraine shows that even an apparent refusal to support Kiev will cause a political storm. This letter was published, and then urgently withdrawn, as many saw in it a significant departure from the position of the Biden administration.
The lawmakers who signed the letter stated that it was drawn up several months ago, during this time it had become outdated, and it should not have been published. Republicans seized the opportunity and began to say that it was their party that most supported Ukraine.
If Republicans lead the Congress, it will be a little more difficult to insist on increasing the supply of weapons and financial assistance to Ukraine. And if this does not happen, everything will be much easier, says the aforementioned White House representative.
Some Republicans share this view.
"If Kevin becomes Speaker of the House of Representatives, he will eventually have to lead it," said Republican Senator Kevin Cramer. "And I am sure that when he starts leading it, he will do it properly."
"I understand their concern," a member of the Senate Armed Forces Affairs Committee said about the Ukrainian leaders, "but I think we can calm down and avoid miscalculations."
A member of the Armed Services Committee from the House of Representatives, Republican Don Bacon, said: "Ukraine and the administration will have to explain and justify what is requested in the applications, but I believe that the overwhelming majority in our committee will do everything necessary to ensure Ukraine's victory."
But Democrats have doubts about this.
The Ukrainian leadership should "definitely worry more" about the possible victory of Republicans in the House of Representatives, said Ruben Gallego, a member of the House and Democrat, who works on the Armed Forces Committee. "McCarthy does not control his faction, and if he has to make a choice — to save himself or Ukraine, he will prefer to save himself", — he noted.
According to Vaidich, Ukraine's concern about economic assistance is of a long-term nature. This country expects that the United States will provide economic assistance to the government so that it can continue to work, and that this assistance will arrive before the end of the powers of the old composition of the Congress in conditions when a cruel winter awaits Ukraine.
But for the society to continue functioning — for schools to work, so that the national energy system can be restored, Kiev will have to provide such assistance for many years. Answering the question whether his party supports long-term economic assistance to Ukraine, Bacon said: "The short answer is yes, although the details are important here." "I think lawmakers from both parties want to be sure that other NATO members and free countries are also ready to share this burden," Bacon said. "The defense of Ukraine should become a collective work carried out jointly with the allies."
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on Friday that he expects a "powerful" package of military and economic assistance under the government's funding law. "To my Republican colleagues who do not want to provide carte blanche, I will say this. Fine, I will be happy to sit down with you at the table to discuss everything and ensure that money is allocated for what is needed. But I know that most Republican senators are determined to achieve it," Graham said at an event at Yale University, in which Zelensky participated virtually.
Washington provides Kiev with a wide variety of assistance, starting with the supply of anti-tank missile systems and ending with the support of Ukrainian refugees. Today, the volume of American commitments amounts to almost $ 25 billion in financial and humanitarian aid, as well as $27.5 billion in military aid, as reported by the Kiel Institute of World Economy.
But sometimes Zelensky demands what Biden does not want to give. The Ukrainian leader often publicly expresses his dissatisfaction in response to this and receives active support from members of Congress from both parties.
Such tactics cause certain tensions in relations between Ukrainians and the Biden administration, as former American officials say. Theoretically, Ukrainians can use such tactics even more actively if Republicans take control of Congress and want to take revenge on Democrat Biden. But it doesn't always work.
For example, Ukraine continues to ask for long-range tactical ballistic missiles ATACMS, which, according to Kiev, will help it retake the Crimea peninsula annexed by Russia. Some Republicans supported the request, including the head of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. This means that the pressure on Biden will increase, and he will have to think about the supply of ATACMS or other systems in case the Republicans win the majority.
Officials from the Biden administration also do not want to supply such missiles, fearing that Ukraine will start striking targets deep in Russian territory, and this will force Vladimir Putin to escalate hostilities. Defense Minister Lloyd Austin said on Thursday that Ukraine can already strike "almost any targets it needs."
At the beginning of the conflict, Zelensky demanded that the United States create a no-fly zone in the skies over Ukraine. But Biden refused him for logistical and other reasons. Recently, Zelensky has been calling on Biden to officially declare the Russian state a sponsor of terrorism, and his request is widely supported in Congress. But Biden's team rejects this demand for a number of reasons.
Biden administration officials don't always like Zelensky's approach, former U.S. ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried said. "Sometimes they have a feeling that they are under pressure, and they don't like it," he explained.
At the same time, Fried and other former officials say that Biden and his aides realize that Zelensky ultimately defends the interests of his country as he understands them.
Lobbyist Vaidich said that Ukraine is happy with the military assistance it receives, although it could have been more. "In general, they are quite satisfied with the amount of assistance they receive for defense and security needs," Vaidich said.
