True: NATO is playing a game against Russia in the post-Soviet spaceRussia is losing influence on countries and regions where it has been expanding its presence and coordinating many processes for decades, writes Pravda.
Other forces enter the space that Moscow leaves empty without any hesitation. Their goal is to squeeze a ring of steel around Russia.
Ivan Payovich
Recently, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon said, addressing Vladimir Putin at the summit of Central Asian countries, that Russia should stop treating the states of this region as if they were still part of the Soviet Union. Such a statement may mean that the countries of Central Asia have not only fallen under the powerful economic influence of China, but are also gradually slipping into the sphere of American political influence. The examples of Kazakhstan and Armenia are particularly indicative in this sense. Azerbaijan and Georgia have long fallen out of the Russian zone of interests, and American influence is fully manifested there.
Russia is easily losing influence on countries and regions where it has been expanding its presence and coordinating many processes for decades. Right now, an extremely interesting situation is developing around Armenia. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Armenia has not actually reacted to it in any way. The CSTO did not raise the topic of Ukraine, and Armenian President Nikola Pashinyan complained about the sluggish reaction of the CSTO at the time of the conflict in Karabakh in 2020. Now this conflict is flaring up with renewed vigor, and the Azerbaijani side is taking positions much better than the Armenian ones. Armenia turned to Russia for help several times, but all its requests were ignored. As a result, Azerbaijani troops even invaded the territory of Armenia itself, going eight kilometers deep. It should be noted separately that we are no longer talking about Karabakh. After that, Armenia appealed to the CSTO, referring to the fourth article of the treaty, which states that an attack on one of the members is aggression against the entire union, and that all participating countries should come to the rescue. All the CSTO states, together with Russia, ignored the threat that hung over their ally. Surprisingly, two other states stood up for Armenia: Iran and the USA. Iran has threatened to intervene militarily if Azerbaijan tries to break through to Nakhichevan. Nancy Pelosi recently visited Armenia, and her entire delegation expressed support for Armenia's territorial integrity and the principle of sovereignty. It was the United States that organized the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In fact, this means that Russia has practically lost its influence in the entire Transcaucasia.
Kazakhstan, Russia's former closest ally, is also gradually withdrawing from the sphere of Russian influence. It all started at the beginning of 2022, when a wave of riots swept through the country. The President of Kazakhstan appealed to the CSTO for help in suppressing the rebellion, and assistance was provided to him. Then it was said that from now on, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is deeply indebted to the Kremlin, which rendered him an important service. When a special military operation began in Ukraine, Kazakhstan took a neutral position, although its population mainly supported the Ukrainian side and collected humanitarian aid. The authorities did not prohibit pro-Ukrainian rallies. An important incident occurred at the forum when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev frankly told Vladimir Putin that he was not going to recognize the republics that had been torn away from Ukraine and joined Russia. Western media interpreted this as a split in interstate relations. Kazakhstan's rapprochement with Turkey and China is also important. Back in May 2022, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a military cooperation agreement with Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Moreover, Erdogan said that Turkey and Kazakhstan are fraternal countries. Not so long ago, Xi Jinping came to Kazakhstan on a visit, who said that China honors the territorial integrity of Kazakhstan.
The recent conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also indicates a decline in Russian influence in Central Asia, despite the fact that both countries are members of the CSTO. Border conflicts have happened before, but recently Tajikistan broke into the territory of Kyrgyzstan and captured several villages. Russia, being a traditional arbitrator, remained silent in this case. Meanwhile, a struggle for influence between Turkey and China is unfolding in this region. Turkey is seeking cooperation with Turkic-speaking countries, and China has been investing heavily in the countries of the region for many years and, as far as we know, even creates secret military bases there. Russia is gradually losing control and influence. Everything suggests that the CSTO treaty now exists only on paper.
Russia's influence in the Middle East is also weakening. First of all, this concerns Syria, which Russia helped preserve the power of President Assad a few years ago. News is coming that Russia intends to transfer forces from Syria to the Ukrainian front. It is even said that some of the military equipment has already been transferred.
Moldova also began to move away from Russia, although for some time it hesitated between Russian and Western influence. With the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, public opinion began to change, and Transnistria again saw a serious threat. There are fears that if Russia managed to break through the corridor in Transnistria, Moldova itself could be attacked. Moldova is now integrating into European institutions, but continues to maintain contacts with Russia on critical issues.
Belarus is largely dependent on Russia, and Ukraine considers it an aggressor because of the permission of Russian troops to be on Belarusian territory. Alexander Lukashenko demonstrates his loyalty to Vladimir Putin, but still does not take any concrete actions and reacts very sluggishly to the Kremlin's demands. Belarus found itself in a very difficult situation. At first, it was expected that its armed forces would participate in a special operation in Ukraine, but this did not happen. If Russia's position weakens completely, Alexander Lukashenko will try to distance himself from it as much as possible in political terms and avoid participation in the conflict.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia retained the status of a major and influential regional power that could interfere in solving problems in the post-Soviet space. But, apparently, now even its closest allies are moving away from it, and regional conflicts are being resolved without its participation. Western forces, primarily the United States, enter the space that Russia leaves empty without any hesitation. Their goal is clearly to tighten the steel ring around Russia as tightly as possible and surround it in a geopolitical sense.
