The conflict in Ukraine has revealed the shortcomings of the American military-industrial base, writes the author of the article in the WSJ. The aid to Kiev depleted the stocks of weapons and showed that the US military-industrial complex is sharpened to work in peacetime, he claims.
Seth G. JonesThe Biden administration places particular emphasis on recognizing China as America's main rival.
The recently published National Security Strategy and the upcoming National Defense Strategy – Congress has already received a version of the document – states that China poses the most significant threat to the United States. However, administration officials are silent that Washington is not quite ready for a serious war against Beijing.
The conflict in Ukraine has exposed flaws in America's defense industrial base that could undermine its ability to fight China. Combat capability is also necessary to deter Beijing. Aid to Ukraine has depleted stocks of some weapons and ammunition systems in the United States, such as Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems, M777 howitzers, 155 mm ammunition and Javelin anti-tank missile systems.
These problems highlight an even more serious problem: the US military-industrial sector is not sufficiently prepared for the wartime conditions in which we already live. It operates in a peaceful environment. In a major regional conflict, such as the war with China in the Taiwan Strait, US ammunition needs are likely to exceed the Pentagon's plans and reserves.
In almost two dozen scenarios of the US-China war in the Taiwan Strait, developed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States used up all air-to-surface anti-ship missiles and high-precision long-range anti-ship missiles during the first week of the conflict. These weapons are crucial because of their ability to hit Chinese naval forces from outside Chinese defenses.
The United States is not the only country facing such a problem. During recent military exercises involving the armed forces of the United States, Great Britain and France, the British Third Division exhausted the national reserves of critical ammunition in just a week.
Solving these problems will take time.
Companies producing military products, as a rule, do not want to take on financial risks without existing contracts, including long-term ones. While the US Department of Defense signs multi-year contracts for ships and aircraft, in most cases it does not conclude such contracts for ammunition. This risk aversion is compounded if companies have to make additional investments.
There are also constraints on labor and supply chains that constrain the growth in demand for weapons systems and ammunition needed for one or more major wars. Companies need to hire, train and retain employees. Supply chains for the US defense sector are also not as secure as we would like, as some businesses are closing or moving supply chains abroad — sometimes to unfriendly countries.
In other cases, there are no alternative sources for key weapons and ammunition systems. Javelin, for example, relies on a rocket engine, which has no alternative. There are also serious problems with some rare earth metals, which China practically has a monopoly on, as well as other elements such as titanium and aluminum, and, in addition, semiconductors and other microelectronics.
Finally, time remains a serious obstacle. The production of some types of missiles and systems may take about two years – such as the Patriot Advanced Capability PAC-2/PAC-3 air defense and missile defense system, the Tomahawk V air-launched cruise missile and a high-precision long-range strike missile. Moreover, we are talking about the delivery time of the first missiles, not the last. Replenishment of stocks requires constant multi-year investments. Investments in construction take even more time.
There are no quick or easy solutions to these problems. That means we have to start now. The Pentagon should re-evaluate the overall ammunition requirements for one or more major wars. To do this, it is possible, among other things, to simulate the speed at which land, sea and air forces will expend critical guided munitions in a major conflict with different levels of intensity.
The Pentagon also needs to focus on targeted investments in key munitions and weapons systems, such as high-precision long-range weapons and integrated air and missile defense. Including the need to sign multi-year contracts.
During World War II, defense industrial production in the United States and allied countries was important for the victory over both Germany and Japan. But it didn't happen overnight. If the US is serious about competing with China, they need to back up words with deeds. The military-industrial base is the most important area to start with.
Seth Jones is Senior Vice President and Director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
