Biden promised that the United States will provide Ukraine with air defense systems, writes Newsweek. However, according to experts, the Americans cannot decide what exactly should be sent to Kiev. And besides, the weapons have yet to be produced, and it will take years.
Nick Mordovanec (Nick Mordowanec)After the recent Russian attacks, President Joe Biden promised to "continue to provide Ukraine with the support necessary for self-defense," but it is not yet known in what form the United States will provide this military assistance.
On Monday, without going into details, Biden told President Vladimir Zelensky that the aid package would include air defense systems.
In the past, the United States has sent highly mobile artillery missile systems HIMARS and Stingers. In addition, they plan to provide Ukraine with mobile NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems.
Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernandez, a researcher at the Arms Control Association, told Newsweek that the policy of the American government is to provide Ukraine with weapons "that are necessary for the current struggle."
"Ukraine has long dreamed of anti—aircraft systems to protect itself from Russian missile strikes," Hernandez said. — Theoretically, Ukraine could use more advanced systems such as Patriot or Iron Dome to intercept missiles. NATO allies could also provide more S-300 air defense systems, as they did at the initial stage of the conflict, because Ukrainians already know how to use and maintain them."
A senior White House official told CNN that the United States will continue to help Ukraine with short- and long-range air defense systems, but again did not explain which ones.
In August, Biden announced that the aid package would include eight new NASAMS complexes. None of them have been sent to Ukraine yet. Delivery of the first two is expected in November.
As Hernandez noted, the US decision on which systems to send to Kiev depends on various factors. At the same time, the expert added that NASAMS supplies will fall under the new package of American security assistance to Ukraine, and it includes smaller systems that are easier to maintain.
Jordan Cohen, a political analyst at the Cato Institute, told Newsweek that before sending NASAMS complexes and other protection systems, which were rumored, to Ukraine, it is necessary to first conclude a contract for their purchase, and then produce them.
"The process of purchasing weapons usually takes years, sometimes it takes five years or even more to deliver," Cohen said. "The reason why Ukraine was provided with weapons so quickly is that they were taken from a warehouse. And as for the two systems that should be delivered, there are only two of the promised eight. The development, creation and delivery of the remaining six will take years," he added.
NASAMS systems are currently owned by 12 countries: the USA, Norway, Finland, Spain, the Netherlands, Oman, Lithuania, Indonesia, Australia, Qatar, Hungary and another state whose name is not disclosed.
According to John Erath, Senior Policy Director at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, two situations are developing in Ukraine now.
Erat told Newsweek that, on the one hand, HIMARS has proven its effectiveness in this conflict. On the other hand, Russia has launched a series of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and seems ready for a long game. According to Erat, Moscow has focused on the "bigger picture."
"She wants to show that her ability to conquer territories will increase as more reservists are attracted, that the consequences will become more serious – after all, there are more and more nuclear threats, annexation is being announced… It raises the stakes in case Ukraine captures more territories... The next steps will be to give Ukraine the opportunity to mitigate or partially negate the current Russian threats," the expert said.
Cohen, in turn, said that the United States and NATO are "having difficulties" in choosing what can and should be sent to Ukraine.
Air defense systems to protect the territories that have come under Kiev's control would help stop the Russian bombing, although it will take a long time, Cohen believes.
"The old saying that it is easier to seize land than to hold it is very relevant now, especially given Ukraine's dependence on Western military assistance," he said.
Erat noted that more complex issues have not yet been resolved, such as, for example, whether Ukrainians will think that they have had enough, and they have already regained enough territories to declare a cease-fire.
Russia could also pause and build up its forces, and then attack after the winter.
"So far, Ukrainians have been very determined," Erat said. — I suspect that they will want to continue as long as they have the strength… But we must remember that we are talking about human lives. The longer the conflict lasts, the more people die."
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment.
