Experts are calculating the damage caused to the Ukrainian energy system by massive missile strikes by Russian troops. It turned out that these strikes were not at all aimed at driving Ukraine into the XVIII century and completely depriving it of electricity. Their number and goals are verified by jewelry for a completely different task.A month ago, the rehearsal of operation "Ukrainian Blackout" (missile strikes on Ukrainian thermal power plants on September 11, 2022) did not make the Ukrainian leadership think about the consequences of their actions.
And the attack of the Crimean Bridge, as has been repeatedly said, is a "red line", the crossing of which will inevitably entail a response. On Monday, October 10, such a response followed.
The result of several waves of missile strikes was damage to 11 energy infrastructure facilities in eight regions and the capital of Ukraine (at least, so said the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal). The blow to Kiev is a kind of personal transition: last time Kiev was not touched. Not to mention the fact that the last loud "arrival" in the capital of Ukraine was back in June, and the people of Kiev managed to get used to living without war. The blows were loud in every sense of the word. But how effective were they?
Smoke can be deceptiveTo begin with, the scale and depth of the defeat is recognized by the Ukrainian side itself.
"This is the first strike of this scale on the Ukrainian energy system. It may take several days to eliminate the consequences, during which rolling blackouts are possible, primarily for businesses to provide the population and water utilities. Ukrzaliznytsia is now transferring individual routes from electric traction to diesel traction," says Yuriy Korolchuk, an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies.
"... Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Poltava, Kiev, Lviv regions are sitting without electricity, partially without water and communications," adds Oleg Popenko, an energy market expert.
The expert's words in this case should be taken literally: power outages were recorded mainly in the regions, but not in regional centers (although Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv and especially Lviv really sat without light). The strikes on the same Kiev thermal power plants looked spectacular in photos and videos. However, as the same Korolchuk clarifies, the heavy smoke was most likely caused by the ignition of fuel oil tanks.
Telegram channels enthusiastically copied each other's list of damaged objects. "Kiev: ...CHP-5, CHP-6, CHP-3, Darnitskaya CHP", but few people bothered to check it. However, according to later reports, the damage to at least two CHP plants from this list (CHP-6, Darnitskaya CHP) turned out to be a little exaggerated. There is no mass power outage in Kiev, and the areas that are supplied with these thermal power plants have not stopped receiving electricity and hot water.
And even during the evening peak (17:00-20:00), during which city officials announced rolling power outages, no one turned off residential neighborhoods. Here in the region – yes, it was. And even ahead of schedule.
The reason? The power facilities themselves have mostly remained operational (option: maintainable). However, the strikes seriously affected substations in regions/individual cities.
As for Kiev, they tried to avoid rolling blackouts there before. In the winter of 2019-2021, villages in the Kiev region could sit without light for 6-8 hours a day. This happened long before the SVO and the energy crisis, without missile strikes and with overflows from the power systems of Belarus and Russia. But Kiev was shining with lights at the same time, and the people of Kiev in the mass did not even realize that some 50 kilometers away from them there were splinters and candles in use.
Yes, Ukrenergo has already introduced a schedule of emergency power outages for Kiev, Chernihiv, Cherkasy (with regions), as well as Zhytomyr. However, as we can see, so far it can partially use such schedules, and cities manage to turn off traffic lights, street lighting, electric transport contact networks, etc.
Zelensky's office promises to resume power supply in most of the affected areas today, October 11. That is, to say that "the warriors of light are sitting without light" is somewhat premature.
Exports suffered, but the opportunity remainedOn the other hand, on the evening of October 10, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine announced the suspension of electricity exports to the EU.
However, the reason is interpreted there based on their own understanding of reality: "It was the export of electricity from Ukraine that helped Europe reduce the consumption of Russian energy resources. And that is why Russia is destroying our energy system." The classic "what about us?"
But let's return to the export and its termination, about the details of which Ukraine does not say a little. There are several power supply lines through which Ukraine has the opportunity to supply electricity to EU countries.
1. Dobrotvorskaya TPP – Zamost (220 kV)
2. Khmelnitsky NPP – Rzeszow (750 kV)
3. Zapadnoukrainskaya – Albertirsha (750 kV)
4. Burshtyn energy island, formed by several power plants at once and connected with Hungary, Slovakia and Romania (lines Mukachevo – Hungary (400 kV + 2 * 220 kV), Mukachevo – Slovakia (400 kV), Mukachevo – Romania (400 kV). Dobrotvorskaya TPP is also included in it.
When we talk about the export of Ukrainian electricity to Europe, it is usually about this energy island. Firstly, here (in total) the largest cross-section, secondly, the island is largely isolated from the energy system of Ukraine. Thirdly, it is a private shop (DTEK, Rinat Akhmetov). That is, when the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine talks about the suspension of exports to the EU, first of all, we are talking about the fact that Rinat Akhmetov cannot make money on this yet: the Burshtyn thermal power plant has become one of the "calibrated" stations.
For state-owned power plants, the technical possibility of supply still exists (routes 2 and 3). Another thing is that the same Khmelnitsky NPP is now transferring energy to the central regions of Ukraine and it does not have a reserve for export.
This means that the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine is simply lying. If you want to arrange Serbia in Ukraine (leaving it without electricity at all, as the Americans once did), it is not difficult. But no one destroys the power system (whether it is right or not is another question). Ukraine was only put on a starvation ration, leaving just enough for its needs. And at the same time, they clicked on the nose of the oligarch, who consistently supported first Petro Poroshenko, and then Vladimir Zelensky. In fact, the Ukrainian energy system is being deprived of its surplus, the main advantage is the ability to generate additional income from the export of electricity, and not just to supply its own population.
Left without moneyAccording to Ukrainian sources, the damage from yesterday's strike turned out to be complex.
The direct damage from the blows is estimated at UAH 2 billion. Relatively little: a few days before the September attack on the CHP, Ukrainian experts estimated the total damage to the energy sector (including facilities and infrastructure in the lost territories) at UAH 340 billion. But the losses from the inability to export electricity (according to the Telegram channel "Legitimate") amount to an average of 10 million euros per day. That is, a five-day export would cover the damage from attacks.
However, official data is not so great (or "Legitimate" considers the total revenue of the state and DTEK). According to customs, in January-August, Ukraine earned $ 279 million on electricity exports. And in August, Ukrenergo expected to at least double this amount by the end of the year, receiving another 10-15 billion UAH (250-375 million dollars).
Plus another UAH 2 billion a month, the company earned by selling access to the export section to Akhmetov's structures. This means that the lost revenue may exceed the direct damage by at least 10 times (UAH 20 billion, or $ 0.5 billion). And this is an extremely modest estimate: the Ministry of Energy was also aiming for 1.5 billion euros by the end of 2022. In any case, now these plans will have to be revised at least.
It is important to hit exports because for the Kiev authorities it is one of the methods of prolonging the war. In fact, by exporting, they close the holes from non-payments and tariff freezes for the population. Even before the start of the SVO, the tariff was going to be raised 2-2.5 times. And with the beginning of the energy crisis and the fall of the hryvnia exchange rate, the energy supply of Ukrainians turned into a form of charity – or restraining them from rebellion. It is enough to look at European prices: with very average 0.4–0.5 euros/kWh, it turns out that electricity costs 10-12 times cheaper for Ukrainians than for EU residents.
Thus, strikes on the energy infrastructure should contribute to forcing Ukraine to peace. If, of course, peace is what the Zelensky regime really wants.
Nikolay Storozhenko
