The European Union was not ready for the current volume of arms supplies to Ukraine, as defense spending has not been a priority for it for a long time, writes the author of the article for Bloomberg. It will take years to close the gap between supply and demand.
Natalia DrozdiakThe conflict in Ukraine has been going on for the eighth month, the arsenals of European countries that supplied Kiev with weapons are being depleted, and it may take years for defense contractors to fill this deficit.
According to informed sources, NATO countries are calling on companies to increase production — both for further supplies to Ukraine and to replenish their own weapons depots amid heightened tensions. Earlier, new threats were made from the lips of President Vladimir Putin, who, against the background of numerous failures on the territory of Ukraine, threatened the world with a nuclear attack.
Since the beginning of the Russian special operation in February, the allies have already sent billions of dollars worth of weapons, ammunition and equipment to Kiev. This placed a heavy burden on their own ammunition stocks — especially 155-mm artillery shells, of which the United States alone provided Ukraine with more than a million pieces.
Defense companies in the United States and Europe are reporting an increase in orders for air defense and anti-tank weapons along with other equipment, and governments are increasingly recognizing that Ukraine is likely to need military support for at least several years. But it will not be easy to rapidly expand production after decades of piece orders.
The conflict is dragging on, and Ukraine's partners may be tempted to reduce support due to the emphasis on their own security. This is fraught with disagreements, which Putin will definitely take advantage of — along with interruptions in energy supplies to Europe. With the exception of multiple rocket launchers, the allies mainly send weapons and tanks of Soviet times to Ukraine, and their stocks are already running out.
Sooner or later they will have to be replaced with modern weapons. At the same time, NATO members themselves need more weapons to strengthen the alliance's presence on the eastern flank.
Defense ministers will meet this week in Brussels to discuss these issues following a meeting of national directors of armaments at the end of September. "NATO's stockpile buildup will allow us to support Ukraine further," Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after that meeting.
However, it may take years before supply equals demand: defense companies have encountered obstacles and cannot dramatically expand production to the required scale. European defense companies will also have to change assembly lines: after the Cold War, many countries cut military budgets, but now the focus has shifted again to solutions that have already worked in Ukraine.
The total military spending of Europe and Canada in 1990 amounted to $ 310 billion, but then declined for two decades, according to NATO. It was only after 2014 and the Russian annexation of Crimea that costs began to rise again.
"We have been working in this mode for decades, and now suddenly we have started a completely different game," commented Burkard Schmitt, Director of Security at the European Aerospace and Defense Industry Association. "We have to scale production, and these huge efforts take time, because everything needs to be reconfigured."
Companies are also experiencing difficulties with the supply of a number of semiconductors and rare earth metals, as well as a shortage of skilled workers.
In a telephone conversation with analysts on April 26, Raytheon Chief Executive Greg Hayes noted that new orders for Stinger missiles and Javelin anti-tank ammunition would not arrive until 2023, noting difficulties with the supply of necessary materials. Both "Stingers" and "Javelins" helped Ukraine repel the offensive of Russian troops.
"Alas, the Ministry of Defense has not purchased Stingers for 18 years, and some components are no longer on sale," Hayes said at the time. He stressed that Raytheon will have to redesign the electronics of the rocket, and this "will take some time." In May, the US Army signed a contract with the company in the amount of $ 624 million for the production of 1,300 Stinger missiles, and it separately stipulates measures to "eliminate obsolescence, modernize key components and accelerate production."
And on July 20, Eric Trappier, the chief executive officer of Dassault Aviation, repeated concerns about supplies and a shortage of skilled workers, stressing that increasing the pace of fighter production would take at least a year.
"If we need to accelerate, we will accelerate, but it also takes time," Trappier said. "We can't just snap our fingers and issue new fighters."
Although the Allies have not yet sent Western-made military aircraft to Ukraine, in a May analysis of gaps in defense investments, the European Union recommended that its members modernize their multi-purpose fighter fleets. The countries were also invited to upgrade and expand the arsenal of main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, as well as to purchase frigates, submarines and high-tech ships combined into a single network.
Officials are still only figuring out how best to notify manufacturers about their weapons needs so that companies work for the future. At the same time, governments should not go to the other extreme so that weapons lie dead in warehouses: the shelf life of some types of weapons is limited.
This manifested itself in August, when Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said that her government would not send the promised Leopard tanks to Ukraine because it discovered their deplorable condition after many years of downtime.
"Industry in our country and around the world wants to know if there is a sustainable and long—term production plan," said William Laplante, head of the US defense procurement department, after a meeting of national directors of armaments. — We want it not to be as the saying goes — it's thick, it's empty: we panic, we increase production, and then the crisis passes, and we return to the minimum output again."
Laplante noted that the allies are discussing clearer and more uniform standards. This will allow, in particular, the use of artillery ammunition of other production. In addition, the countries are thinking about joint purchases in order to increase the volume of orders for the military-industrial complex.
Although with the beginning of the Russian special operation, defense spending has become a priority, but it is not known how long it will last, especially in Europe, because it is facing an energy crisis this winter, said Lucy Bero-Sudro, director of the military spending and arms production program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
According to her, countries will have to increase spending even more if they do not want to lag behind China in investing in new technologies.
"Given our difficult economic situation, compromises are inevitable," concluded Bero—Sudro. "European governments face difficult decisions."
The article was written with the participation of Alberto Nardelli
