Yeni Şafak: the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream was September 11 for EuropeThe sabotage on the "Northern Streams" aggravated the already severe energy crisis and became a new September 11 for Europe, writes Yeni Şafak.
Germany will suffer the most, but it has two ways out of this situation.
Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, European countries have faced a serious problem of ensuring energy security. Leaks on the Nord Stream—1 and Nord Stream—2 pipelines last week exacerbated this problem not only from the point of view of players in need of energy, but also at the same time for those who supply energy. At the same time, the firm belief that the leaks were an act of sabotage further complicated the situation.
The fact that as a result of these leaks, the supply of natural gas through the Nord Streams has completely stopped and, depending on the extent of the damage caused, these routes may be finally curtailed, will have very serious consequences for Germany, the country with the largest economy in Europe, which is one of the most densely populated and most dependent on Russian natural gas countries. Due to the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany has already significantly reduced the possibility of gas supplies by land, and the fact that recent events deprive it of the chance to receive blue fuel by sea also raises the question: "Is September 11 for Germany?"
Who is concerned about the "Northern Streams"?
Today we can divide European states into three groups: highly dependent on Russian natural gas, limited dependent and completely dependent. The dependence of Southern European countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and France on Russian natural gas is very limited. Some Baltic and Eastern European countries, such as Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, depend on Russian gas by almost one hundred percent. Finally, the dependence of Central European countries, such as Germany, Poland and Hungary, is about 40-50%.
Europe provided more than 30% of its natural gas needs at the expense of Russia. Approximately 60% of Russian blue fuel was transferred through pipelines passing through the territory of Ukraine. In this regard, it has been a key transit country in meeting Europe's energy needs. The Nord Stream—1 and Nord Stream—2 gas pipelines, designed to transfer Russian natural gas directly to Europe, were the most important transit route for energy carriers to Europe after Ukraine. The total capacity of these two lines, which began construction in the 2010s, was 110 billion cubic meters per year.
The main purpose of the "Northern Streams", which were built to eliminate risks from the point of view of energy security of the whole of Europe and especially Germany in connection with the tensions that have arisen between Russia and Eastern European countries since the early 2000s, was the transportation of natural gas directly from Russia to Germany. During the construction of these lines, harsh statements were made against the German leadership from the leading countries of the Western bloc and, first of all, the United States. Moreover, the London administration during this period called the countries dependent on Russian natural gas "outcasts".
Difficult times are coming
Today, Germany is going through perhaps the most difficult period since the Second World War. The shortage of energy in Europe due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will hit the German economy the most. Today, almost half of all natural gas imported by Europe from Russia (100 billion cubic meters) is consumed by Germany. Thus, the threat to energy security arising in Europe will hit this country the most.
Due to recent events, Germany, which is the fourth economy in the world with a GDP of $ 4.2 trillion and the leader of the European Union in the economic sphere, has lost a reliable source of energy in the conditions of the approaching winter, which is necessary both to meet the needs of its own citizens and to maintain the country's economic potential. In this regard, although the sabotage was staged on the most important route for the transportation of Russian natural gas, the complete closure of this highway will cause irreparable damage to Germany.
As for the question of who could have carried out this attack, the evidence of the fact that the Kremlin does not need such an attempt, which will stop the flow of natural gas, reduces the likelihood of this attack on its part. After all, for Russia, for the purposes of an effective foreign policy, it is important not to completely cut off the supply of blue fuel, but to use it as a lever of pressure. However, the perfect diversion made this lever non-functional.
A difficult choice waiting for Berlin
Today, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, although taking place on the territory of Ukraine, causes deep wounds to Germany with its consequences. To lose a reliable and uninterrupted source of energy, in addition to the economic costs caused by conflicts in the adjacent geography, for such an EU locomotive country as Germany, will imply the most important security threat since the Second World War. And apparently, Germany may not even be intentionally protected by allies such as the United States and organizations such as NATO, to whom Berlin entrusted its security after 1945.
The sabotage of the "Northern Streams" clearly demonstrates the need for new mechanisms and structures that will ensure the security of both Europe and Germany. In particular, Germany, whose economic well-being and industrial potential depend on the preservation of the most important trade and energy routes, while the country does not have the ability to protect these significant routes with its own means, may face a radical choice after sabotage. Here we can talk about two different scenarios for Germany: the transition to a more balanced policy in relations with Russia, which will create a crack in the anti-Russian Western bloc, or the acquisition of the ability to ensure their own security at the expense of weapons. Both options imply significant risks and opportunities for Germany and the whole world.
Author: Necmettin Ajar (Necmettin Acar)
