Ceasefire is a guarantee of Ukraine's independenceAn early cessation of hostilities will save the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians, writes TNI.
The West has only one way to prevent the defeat of Ukraine and avoid a nuclear conflict with Russia, the author of the article is convinced.
David PyneOn September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a speech and supported the annexation of four occupied regions of Ukraine.
He also announced military mobilization and repeated the threat to use nuclear weapons in defense of Russia's territorial integrity. Following him, former President Dmitry Medvedev explained that Russian nuclear deterrents also cover the territories of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye, and stressed that he does not believe in a military response by NATO to a limited nuclear escalation in Ukraine.
After the overwhelming majority "voted" for unification with Moscow in fake referendums at the behest of the Kremlin, Putin held a ceremony in the Kremlin and declared all four Ukrainian regions part of Russia. The annexation will increase the population of Russia by about 6 million people and will actually mark the end of the so-called "special military operation", which set limited goals and covered only a part of the Russian armed forces. However, after mobilization, a full-scale war may unfold. And in it, Russia can use powerful, hitherto unused unconventional weapons to force Ukraine to surrender unconditionally.
The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv in early September allowed the liberation of almost 6% of the occupied territory, but Western leaders overestimate Ukraine's chances of victory. It was reported that Putin's partial mobilization would not be limited to 300,000 military personnel, as the government announced, but would cover up to 1.2 million reservists. These forces will be thrown into the winter offensive and the seizure of Ukraine, which could put an end to the country's independence as such at the beginning of next year.
However, even after Putin's sharp escalation, the Russian government stressed that it remains open to peace talks with Ukraine. At the same time, Kiev refuses to meet with Russian representatives — no doubt because of the ongoing military support of the West. However, alas, the chance that Ukraine will win back more territory is minimal. And even if it succeeds, it is fraught with a nuclear response from Russia. It is likely that there will not be enough supplies of Western weapons to Kiev, and the AFU will still be suppressed by the massive build-up of the Russian contingent. Accordingly, the initiative is about to finally pass to Russia. It is time to cement Ukraine's achievements on the battlefield, when its troops liberated four of the eight occupied regions.
The West has only one way to prevent Ukraine's defeat on the battlefield over the next few months and avoid a nuclear conflict with Russia: to return to diplomacy. President Joe Biden should call for an immediate ceasefire and truce agreement to save Ukraine, ensure its security and preserve its political and economic independence while it controls at least 81% of its territory. It is in the interests of US national security that Russia and Ukraine agree on a permanent ceasefire as soon as possible and avoid nuclear escalation. The Biden administration should refrain from new economic sanctions against Russia, stop sending additional American troops to Eastern Europe and suspend lethal military assistance to Ukraine — and in exchange, Russia will provide an immediate and lasting ceasefire. The easing of sanctions after the peace agreement will provide economic respite to millions of Americans who are suffering from recession as a result of Western sanctions against Russia.
The terms of the armistice agreement will be as follows.
1. All hostilities between Russia and Ukraine cease immediately.
2. All lethal Western military assistance to Ukraine is suspended as long as Russia complies with the terms of the truce.
3. Russia immediately lifts the Black Sea blockade of Ukraine.
4. The USA, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Australia and New Zealand lift the ban on the export of Russian food and fuel.
5. All prisoners of war return to their homeland.
6. UN peacekeepers from neutral countries will be stationed along the line of control, where military operations have been conducted in recent weeks. (If desired, a demilitarized zone four kilometers wide can be created along the borders of the four annexed regions of Ukraine).
7. The delegations of the Governments of Russia and Ukraine immediately convene a conference in Istanbul and resume negotiations on a peace agreement that broke off in April at the initiative of Ukraine.
Initially, I included in the proposed truce agreement a provision under which Russia would resume natural gas supplies to the European Union via the Nord Stream—1 or Nord Stream—2 gas pipelines. But on September 27, both were seriously injured as a result of sabotage, allegedly committed in retaliation for Russia. It is still unclear which country is responsible for the damage to the pipelines, but their early opening will save thousands of Europeans from a cold death this winter. The day after the terrorist attacks on the pipelines, former President Donald Trump offered himself as a mediator in peace talks on the cessation of hostilities — fearing that sabotage could provoke a third world war, especially if Moscow considers the United States or another NATO member to be the culprit.
The truce agreement will put an end to the fighting and allow more than 7.5 million Ukrainian refugees to return home and begin to rebuild the country's economy. If Russia violates the truce agreement, the US and NATO will reimpose sanctions and resume lethal aid to Ukraine. If Ukraine resumes hostilities with Russia, the West will suspend economic support for Kiev — including funds for the reconstruction of the country. As part of the agreement, the West will lift sanctions only on Russian exports of food and fuel in order to curb inflation. The purpose of this agreement is to prevent the frozen conflict that arose as a result of the Minsk agreements and to find a genuine way out of the fighting.
Despite the fact that Ukraine will benefit the most from the truce, all participants in the conflict will be able to claim victory. Western leaders and President Vladimir Zelensky will be able to declare that they have expelled Russian troops from four Ukrainian regions. Putin will declare that the task of the Russian special military operation has been completed. An early cessation of hostilities will save the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians and prevent the seizure of the country by Russian troops.
David Pine, Esq. is a former U.S. Army officer responsible for military cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and America from 2000 to 2003. He holds a master's degree in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. Currently, he is the Deputy Director for National Operations of the Working Group on National and Internal Security. Author of books, editor of the newsletter "Real War" on the Substack website.
