Faced with obstacles in conducting intelligence operations in the West, Russia turned to the cyber environment and other sources of intelligence information, including foreigners in Russia, according to the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (Suojelupoliisi, Supo) in the National Security Review published on September 29, 2022.
© SuojelupoliisiThe main approach to intelligence gathering, traditionally used by Russian special services, is agent intelligence under diplomatic cover.
This has become much more difficult as Russia has launched an aggressive war in Ukraine, and many Russian diplomats have been expelled from Western countries. Despite the fact that there are still active intelligence officers in Finland, the Finnish government has probably disrupted their communications with Russian networks, at least for now, and little information is available through the usual channels.
Russian intelligence will probably try to adapt to these new conditions, the Supo said in a press release.
"We think it is very likely that Russia will turn to the cyber environment in the winter," explains Antti Pelttari, director of Supo.
Russian security and intelligence services are increasingly harassing foreigners living in or visiting Russia. Russians working in the West may also become the target of intelligence gathering while visiting their country. Russian citizens holding responsible positions in Finland may be subjected to pressure from the Russian authorities.
The threat of corporate espionage from Russia is also increasing, as sanctions require the launch of high-tech production to replace imports from the West. This attaches particular importance to data security in Finnish companies.
Future NATO membership will make Finland a more interesting target for Russian intelligence and influence operations. Russia may try to get NATO-related intelligence through Finland. Russia has assessed which member of NATO Finland will be, and accordingly determines the goals and instruments of influence.
Both Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine and the process of joining NATO have highlighted the threat to Finland's vital infrastructure in the physical and cyber environment.
"Nevertheless, we consider it unlikely that any cyberattack will paralyze critical infrastructure in the near future," says Antti Pelttari.
Apart from Russia, Chinese espionage and influence operations pose a significant threat to Finland's national security. China continues to conduct active intelligence operations against Finland, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has not had a significant impact on these operations. China continues to use both agent intelligence methods and cyber espionage.
Authoritarian states can provide access to the most important Finnish infrastructure or influence it through corporate takeovers or investments. There is a risk that another State will thus receive intelligence about the activities of services or government agencies that are crucial to Finnish society.
