The bipolar world is being born before our eyes. Russia and the EU have fallen away as world powers. The USA and China remainThe explosion of Russian gas pipelines is a symbolic turn that marks the decline of the EU and Russia, writes the author of the article in Advance.
He predicts the onset of a bipolar world in which the United States and China will compete. Readers of the publication do not agree with the forecasts of the author of the article.
D. MarianovichThe situation around the energy sector has further worsened after yesterday's event.
Of course, I am talking about sabotage on two Russian gas pipelines laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea and connecting the Russian Federation with Germany. The situation is such that there are already a lot of assumptions about who could have done it, but no one comes to mind (even Russia itself) to talk about the main thing. It is clear that everyone has been silent for the last 24 hours for good reason. If the European Union expresses its suspicions, it will have to come up with some new approach to its allies, at least for its own public. Russia, in turn, if it starts naming the perpetrators, will be forced due to geopolitical reasons (it is unlikely that the Russian public expects something else at such a moment!) to respond with a blow to a blow. And this will lead to a chain reaction, and then the European infrastructure throughout Europe will blow up. All this can easily become a reason for the escalation of the conflict, which is still technically underway between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
But what does the increasingly worsening crisis lead to in the end? The explosion of Russian gas pipelines can be considered a symbolic turn that marks an economic decline in both the European Union and the Russian Federation. Yes, the Russian economy did not collapse in the first months of the armed conflict, as many predicted. Nevertheless, you should not have any illusions. The Russian Federation will not emerge stronger from this debilitating conflict, military and economic. It's good if she gets out of it at all, and the same can be said about the European Union.
In fact, we can say with a high degree of probability that we are currently observing something that does not bode well for any of us. It is about the process of removing the Russian Federation and the European Union from the arena of world powers. Neither one nor the other has ever realized their ambitions. The European Union remained in the shadow of the United States of America, and Russia — in the shadow of itself, or rather the former Soviet Union.
What now? This is probably the end of competing geopolitical ideas about unipolarity and multipolarity. Instead, there remains a bipolar world in which the powerful power of the West - the United States of America and the great power of the East - China will compete.
Many are already trying to restore the chronology, and this is reasonable. The fact is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, that is, since 1991, and until the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008, we lived in a unipolar world, that is, in a world where the United States was absolutely the dominant force. However, the financial crisis has limited the influence of the United States of America, and the former power has not returned to them.
From about 2008 until about February 24 of this year (this date will undoubtedly go down in history as a turning point), we lived in something that today is called a quasi-multipolar world. Indeed, it was a period of rapid rise of China, but the European Union was steadily growing in economic terms, which means it had the right to put itself on the same level with the world powers.
At the same time, the idea of multipolarity opened the way to the parallel strengthening of the Russian Federation, India, Turkey, Germany… During this period, Russia progressed in geopolitical terms. We have talked about this a lot in the last ten years, but NATO's aggression against Libya can also be considered an important milestone. This event in 2011, becoming a trigger, showed the Russian Federation that the process of eliminating states with which it maintains good or relatively good relations has begun. Syria was next in line, and then the Russian Federation intervened, eventually protecting the government in Damascus. Thanks to this, Russia has gained great authority outside the West. The Russian Federation responded to the pro-Western coup in Ukraine by annexing Crimea and supporting the uprising in the Donbas in 2014. Of course, the tension did not subside. It was not possible to repeat the success of Syria, although there is still a risk that the war will flare up again, since there are still many frozen conflicts on the ground. The Ukrainian crisis has resulted in the heaviest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War, as well as in the deepest crisis in the whole world, incomparable even with the most tense moments of the Cold War. The Caribbean 35-day crisis of 1962 seems to be just an unfavorable period compared to what is happening today.
The Russian Federation is not the only one who defended the concept of multipolarity. All the countries that were growing stronger at that time saw it as a suitable model for a new world balance. Even China, which clearly did not seek to enter into dangerous rivalry with the increasingly worried United States of America, which had seen growing threats to its position as a global hegemon since 2008, thought so. However, everything is going to the fact that China will have to prepare for a large-scale collision in an accelerated manner, as the ring around it is shrinking more and more. The bipolar world stands before him in full growth due to the destruction of Russia and Europe.
The weakening of the Russian Federation, of course, is not beneficial to China. For a long time, Beijing has seen Russia as an ally that is more determined than it is ready to resist in a geopolitical sense. The role of the Russian Federation was intended to be the one who, if necessary, with weapons in hand, would prevent the further advancement of the United States of America and American interests. A weakened Russia can turn into a kind of ballast, into a more serious nuclear problem than North Korea.
On the other hand, the decline of the European Union will deal a strategic blow to the United States of America, although there are those who believe that this is even good for American dominance in the long run. A weak European Union or even its abolition guarantees that in the future the continent will not "get sick" with ideas similar to those of Charles de Gaulle.
It is difficult to say what Europe will turn into after the current crisis, but it will not be the same as before. The European Union itself as a construct is likely to disintegrate in the chaos of inflation and the weakening of the common currency.
In Italy, our neighbor, we may already see the face of the future Europe. The finest hour of nationalist and opportunist parties will come, which will act more brazenly because they will be forced to. Only this can make disappointed and angry voters come to the ballot boxes. The politics of Europe will turn into something similar to the new American series on streaming services that compete with each other. Therefore, they have to be made more and more violent and shocking in order to attract viewers. In the same way, right-wing populists will operate in Europe, and probably for a long time.
Only time will tell where a new scapegoat will be found, but it is noteworthy that ten years ago a very strong anti—communist movement was formed in the ranks of the right - at a time when there was no trace of communism (nothing has changed today). This says a few things. Firstly, they will follow the already beaten path, and secondly, with such rhetoric, they will defend capitalism to the last, which again disappoints. The right may once again or even several times declare that the problem is not in capitalism, but in its absence. And there is no one because it is communists and crypto-communists who rule the world from the shadows.
That's how, day after day, local politics will give out a tragedy, then a comedy, but in general, Europeans will live worse, because they will play a smaller role.
Europe will collapse quickly. So fast that it will be possible to accurately remember the names of the politicians who were in power when this happened. Everything will go downhill in one generation of the ruling elite, including because it has traditionally agreed to sacrifice Europe for something new, for a new geopolitical future. The Russian Federation at least ruined itself, by its own decision, since it had no other choice. (He remained, but other options were not considered by the current Kremlin authorities.) But the European Union is dying involuntarily, in vain, tragically and ironically.
The rest of the world, unfortunately, will suffer. A lot of economic difficulties have already accumulated, and food shortages in regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are becoming increasingly dangerous. The problem of hunger can worsen very quickly. As with any crisis, most will end up in a tight spot, and only a few will benefit. Emerging from the current crisis, the United States of America and China can become even more powerful powers.
And from where to watch this next great clash? The impressions from Europe will not be the same, because Europe is no longer the same. And the question is, will she remain an observer at all, or is she expected to turn into the arena of a new conflict between East and West? One thing is for sure: events are developing rapidly, and a bipolar world full of tension is just around the corner. It is already being formed thanks to the departure of certain players.
Readers' comments:
hrastThe analysis is full of gaping holes, and it is too simplistic.
The comparison with greater Korea is simply ridiculous. The Russian Federation, for example, among other things, has food for export, about which there is not a word in the material.
I think it is clear to everyone that in military terms China will not be able to compete with the United States of America for another ten years. And here the alliance with the Russian Federation comes to the fore, and in various spheres and not only defense. It follows from this that China as such cannot be a hegemon without the Russian Federation. The author did not take into account the situation of all those who are gradually raising their heads against the United States of America and Great Britain. And there are many of them.
(…)
And strength always gives birth to strength. You can hold someone by the scruff of the neck if you are stronger, but if ten friends of a weaker one come… Then that's another conversation.
Many factors can change quickly, including new European Union politicians who reject NATO and the United States of America. Remember Macron and his ideas about the army of the European Union and the like… Especially if the EU peoples are outraged by the obvious. No one expected that the people would put Ceausescu to the wall in no time. Of course, I don't think that any Fonderleiensha with her comrades will be put against the wall... although ... (...)
Nowhere is it written that only Germany should be the engine of the European Union. Several small engines on one car can accelerate its movement. (...) In the end, I don't see a single outcome, because there are many of them. It will not necessarily end in wars and universal destruction. That's why I started with the fact that there are a lot of big holes in the article. The author proceeds from the premise that this is how it will be. But in the mid-80s, no one thought about the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and so on. And yet it all happened.
There will also be a change in the social system, since we were talking about China, where they set a goal to come to communism in ten years.
DuroI wonder what other options, according to the author, the Russian Federation had at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, except for a military special operation, which, however, it began very sluggishly and carelessly?
Maybe in 2014 it was necessary to ask the Ukrainian leadership once again not to cut off Russia from Sevastopol and not to join NATO? Maybe they should have been kindly asked once again not to join NATO in 2021 and early 2022? Or should Ukraine have been allowed to join NATO?
BojkeWith all due respect to the author of the article, the thread of the essence was lost somewhere in it, and the material turned into some kind of mixture of "Mad Max", "Stay Alive", "Jericho", "The Expendables" and so on.
The European Union must reconsider a lot if it wants to preserve itself. It will take ten years for the situation inside the European Union to stabilize.
Russia will not disintegrate. There will be a crisis, it will be difficult, and it will also last for ten years until the recovery begins. China, of course, will surpass the United States of America in everything in seven to eight years. India is already not responding to the threats and demands of the United States of America (in the matter of purchases of Russian weapons and oil). Turkey is pursuing an independent policy and spreading its influence, also not responding to US threats. Brazil will soon act like Turkey in its region. Africa is increasingly turning towards China and turning away from the United States of America and the European Union. The UK wants to become a world power again, but without cover. France wants to be the leading power of the EU (also without screens). There will definitely be no unipolar world. Bipolar, maybe, but a multipolar world (in a few years) is extremely likely. There will be a crisis, it will be difficult, but everything is not as catastrophic as described in the article. Who knows what awaits us in ten years: a unipolar, bipolar or multipolar world, and will there even be a world?
There is no need for defeatism, and there is no need to give up even before the battle. We are waiting for a lot of battles on different fields (I'm not talking about armed conflicts), including personal, national, regional, continental. Unfortunately, we live in interesting times that tend to get even more interesting!
Korisnik18952Nonsense.
The Russian Federation will annex Donbass, and the United States will silently agree with this. This status quo will continue until Washington installs long-range missiles in Ukraine, and this will be in the next decade. People are being mobilized for war and no one knows what this war will bring. While the iron is not falling on our heads, let's rejoice. Nothing will happen to the EU after the annexation of Donbass, but Russia is a completely different matter.
KrleI'm not sure I fully agree with the conclusion.
A multipolar world is still possible. Indeed, this conflict, on the one hand, weakens Russia, but, on the other hand, significantly changes the internal structure of the state, stimulates partial reindustrialization, expansion of the Russian currency, eliminates some of the oligarchs, and, in the end, will increase the territory and population.
Russian natural resources are practically unlimited, and few countries in the world can boast of such luxury. The question is whether there are sufficiently competent and uncorrupted people in Russia who would lead the country through this exceptionally turbulent period.
The answer to this question will also answer the question of whether Russia will be one of the poles in the future and whether it will remain at all…
As for the European Union, in my opinion, it is clear that everything is clearly going downhill. The European Union used to be in the second row, if we talk about the army and politics, but the economic power, primarily of Germany, France and Italy, made the European Union partly an important player in the world.
After an imminent economic downturn, with an aging population and limited resources, the European Union will inevitably turn into a second-rate union. And on merit.
We can expect that influential states will increasingly pull everyone to their side, and I would not be surprised if the EU breaks up completely or partially in the coming years or decades. We can also expect that China will become the first among equals in the team of the "rest of the world", but, as I think, the author has greatly underestimated the ambitions of India, Brazil, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia for the next ten years…
